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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Took a cheeky long @19886!!
Tight stop
Tight stop
G'day folks,
Ftse at Rez 7250-60. Yesterday I was looking at cable weakness and oil strength to continue move from 7220 ish. Oil dumped and cable continued move down - somewhat counteracting each other on effect on ftse.
Today looking at cable to strengthen and oil to move up from WTI 53 area - some similar scenario to yesterday in reverse order - if so expect ftse to trade in narrow range 7230 - 60.
Oil WTI - built up long position from yesterday dump (a gift imho) - long term. Lets see - could be wrong...as always. (also started a long on cable - bit more tentative though...could see further weakening to 1.205ish - opportunities for position building)
Ftse at Rez 7250-60. Yesterday I was looking at cable weakness and oil strength to continue move from 7220 ish. Oil dumped and cable continued move down - somewhat counteracting each other on effect on ftse.
Today looking at cable to strengthen and oil to move up from WTI 53 area - some similar scenario to yesterday in reverse order - if so expect ftse to trade in narrow range 7230 - 60.
Oil WTI - built up long position from yesterday dump (a gift imho) - long term. Lets see - could be wrong...as always. (also started a long on cable - bit more tentative though...could see further weakening to 1.205ish - opportunities for position building)
Dentalfloss
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CABLE
Dentalfloss
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cable in that horizontal supp area
we either get a decent swing trade/up
or
we get a fake down to 1.2000
we either get a decent swing trade/up
or
we get a fake down to 1.2000
Dentalfloss
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there is no real sign of any bulls as yet...that is what we want
Dentalfloss
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ftse is in swissy rez area...that might cap it
chav...get ready for a poss quick exit if cable get supp
chav...get ready for a poss quick exit if cable get supp
Moneylender
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Dentalfloss
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- Modest upcoming schedule of data, puts focus on digesting China news
and data, Fed comments, as govt bond and corporate credit issuance
kicks into gear
- China: PPI jump underlines why authorities needed to engineer CNY
rebound vs. USD - rate hike hardly an option at current juncture
- U.S.A.: Rosengren comments on Fed balance sheet reduction rationale
require closer scrutiny
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busier day should find its primary points of interest in the overnight run of news and data, above all from China and the USA, with the remainder of the data schedule offering little more than Swedish Production stats, US NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. A busier day for govt bond sales sees conventional sales in Austria and the Netherlands and inflation-linked auctions in Germany (10-yr) and the UK (30-yr), while the US kicks off this weeks' 3, 10 & 30-yr funding exercise with $24 Bln of 3-yr, which should find some interest given that the WI yield is at 1.49%, above UK 10-yr yields, and looking very attractive relative to any maturity yields in core Eurozone or Japan. However today is also the first Tuesday after the January Payrolls, which traditionally marks the start of the January corporate issuance deluge as new trading year money flows into credit, and per se rate related lock hedging and unwinds may well prove to be the key influence on trading trade flows in Treasuries and Eurozone govt bonds. The EIA's short-term Energy Outlook and the weekly API oil inventories will also garner plenty of attention, as doubts re-emerge about the efficacy of the OPEC/NOPEC planned output cuts, though the very 'long' speculative position is perhaps the biggest headwind, downside risks in the absence of any news of unexpected supply stoppages / curbs.
** China **
- While CPI was a tad below forecasts at 0.2% m/m 2.1% y/y vs. a forecast 2.2% y/y, this was flattered by a large base effect related fall in Food Prices (2.4% y/y vs. Nov 4.0% y/y), with non-food prices edging higher to 2.0% y/y from 1.8%. Rather more relevant was the surge in PPI to 5.5% y/y from November's 3.3% y/y and an very 'under-clubbed' consensus forecast of 4.6%, paced primarily by energy and to a lesser extent other commodity prices, though the weakness of the CNY vs. the USD also clearly played a key role. The latter is both a salutary example of the pressures that will show up in European, Japanese and other non-US countries' CPI data over Q1, as well as a key contributing factor in the Chinese authorities' bid to reverse some of the slide in the CNY vs USD. The other option would obviously be to raise official rates, which is hardly likely to be Chinese officials 'weapon of choice' at the current rather uncertain juncture for the Chinese economy. The announcement that China intends to cap the break neck rise in non-financial credit growth at current levels is also noteworthy, though it leaves a number of questions: a) if the economy were to slow again, how would the authorities look to shore up what are already high levels (by Chinese historical standards) of non-performing loans; b) or is this effectively a move to shift some of the non-financial corporate debt onto govt and SOE bank balance sheets, which hardly bodes well for the latter.
** U.S.A. **
- In what is a busy week for Fed speak, the comments from retiring Atlanta Fed chief Lockhart, and dove turned mild hawk Rosengren, both of whom have generally been very much been in tune with the FOMC consensus bear rather more scrutiny than markets appeared to give them. While not as hawkish as Rosengren, Lockhart clearly signalled that he sees the Fed's job in supporting the economy as complete with the Fed needing to move to a 'support role', while Rosengren called for the Fed to up the pace of rate hikes, and indeed put the elephant that is the Fed's balance sheet back in the room. His rationale is worth bearing in mind in terms of how Fed policy might evolve over this and next year: "One reason might be that you might get less of an exchange rate effect from long-term rates than short-term rates and so that would argue for some of the tightening coming by reducing the balance sheet and not having it all be on short-term rates." While the Fed would likely not explicitly offer this as a rationale or policy target (the USD being the domain of the Treasury), if the Fed were to start to modestly reduce the size of its balance sheet, it would be a signal moment. It would inevitably creating hefty headwinds for 'riskier' assets, which could also face potentially even stormier seas, if the rise in Eurozone CPI accelerates at a rather more rapid pace than the ECB is currently anticipating, which may well trigger chatter / speculation about the ECB tapering its QE purchases in H2 2017.
\
from Marc Ostwald
and data, Fed comments, as govt bond and corporate credit issuance
kicks into gear
- China: PPI jump underlines why authorities needed to engineer CNY
rebound vs. USD - rate hike hardly an option at current juncture
- U.S.A.: Rosengren comments on Fed balance sheet reduction rationale
require closer scrutiny
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busier day should find its primary points of interest in the overnight run of news and data, above all from China and the USA, with the remainder of the data schedule offering little more than Swedish Production stats, US NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. A busier day for govt bond sales sees conventional sales in Austria and the Netherlands and inflation-linked auctions in Germany (10-yr) and the UK (30-yr), while the US kicks off this weeks' 3, 10 & 30-yr funding exercise with $24 Bln of 3-yr, which should find some interest given that the WI yield is at 1.49%, above UK 10-yr yields, and looking very attractive relative to any maturity yields in core Eurozone or Japan. However today is also the first Tuesday after the January Payrolls, which traditionally marks the start of the January corporate issuance deluge as new trading year money flows into credit, and per se rate related lock hedging and unwinds may well prove to be the key influence on trading trade flows in Treasuries and Eurozone govt bonds. The EIA's short-term Energy Outlook and the weekly API oil inventories will also garner plenty of attention, as doubts re-emerge about the efficacy of the OPEC/NOPEC planned output cuts, though the very 'long' speculative position is perhaps the biggest headwind, downside risks in the absence of any news of unexpected supply stoppages / curbs.
** China **
- While CPI was a tad below forecasts at 0.2% m/m 2.1% y/y vs. a forecast 2.2% y/y, this was flattered by a large base effect related fall in Food Prices (2.4% y/y vs. Nov 4.0% y/y), with non-food prices edging higher to 2.0% y/y from 1.8%. Rather more relevant was the surge in PPI to 5.5% y/y from November's 3.3% y/y and an very 'under-clubbed' consensus forecast of 4.6%, paced primarily by energy and to a lesser extent other commodity prices, though the weakness of the CNY vs. the USD also clearly played a key role. The latter is both a salutary example of the pressures that will show up in European, Japanese and other non-US countries' CPI data over Q1, as well as a key contributing factor in the Chinese authorities' bid to reverse some of the slide in the CNY vs USD. The other option would obviously be to raise official rates, which is hardly likely to be Chinese officials 'weapon of choice' at the current rather uncertain juncture for the Chinese economy. The announcement that China intends to cap the break neck rise in non-financial credit growth at current levels is also noteworthy, though it leaves a number of questions: a) if the economy were to slow again, how would the authorities look to shore up what are already high levels (by Chinese historical standards) of non-performing loans; b) or is this effectively a move to shift some of the non-financial corporate debt onto govt and SOE bank balance sheets, which hardly bodes well for the latter.
** U.S.A. **
- In what is a busy week for Fed speak, the comments from retiring Atlanta Fed chief Lockhart, and dove turned mild hawk Rosengren, both of whom have generally been very much been in tune with the FOMC consensus bear rather more scrutiny than markets appeared to give them. While not as hawkish as Rosengren, Lockhart clearly signalled that he sees the Fed's job in supporting the economy as complete with the Fed needing to move to a 'support role', while Rosengren called for the Fed to up the pace of rate hikes, and indeed put the elephant that is the Fed's balance sheet back in the room. His rationale is worth bearing in mind in terms of how Fed policy might evolve over this and next year: "One reason might be that you might get less of an exchange rate effect from long-term rates than short-term rates and so that would argue for some of the tightening coming by reducing the balance sheet and not having it all be on short-term rates." While the Fed would likely not explicitly offer this as a rationale or policy target (the USD being the domain of the Treasury), if the Fed were to start to modestly reduce the size of its balance sheet, it would be a signal moment. It would inevitably creating hefty headwinds for 'riskier' assets, which could also face potentially even stormier seas, if the rise in Eurozone CPI accelerates at a rather more rapid pace than the ECB is currently anticipating, which may well trigger chatter / speculation about the ECB tapering its QE purchases in H2 2017.
\
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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bounced off 1525..our marked rez area
1510 poss next supp/minor
yu need to get the trigger ready for a poss quick exit
Dentalfloss
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supp in at 1.2100 area on cable
it could be bumpy...lol
it could be bumpy...lol
Dentalfloss
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eurusd into our dog area
Dentalfloss
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from Friday morning
Dentalfloss
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1.2150 ..there now
horizontal rez
lets see how it gets handled
horizontal rez
lets see how it gets handled
Dentalfloss
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ftse might be a decent swing trade/short if cable gets a bid
Dentalfloss
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whack ..scalps in and out of that rez area
Dentalfloss
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oil/wti could dump that 52.00 horizontal supp area
Dentalfloss
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oil....not happy
Dentalfloss
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oil...gotta a break in trend...a tad
cable seems to be gettin a bid
not lookin too happy for ftse
lets see what happens
cable seems to be gettin a bid
not lookin too happy for ftse
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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oil/wti
a bit more detail
a bit more detail
