Dentalfloss
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CABLE
supp starts at 1.2640
bull test/rez marked
supp starts at 1.2640
bull test/rez marked
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
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- All eyes on the FOMC, to be preceded by busy run of statistics: UK labour
data, US Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production & Business Inventories;
UK to sell 20-yr Index-Linked; EIA inventories eyed after unexpected
API crude inventory build
- UK Unemployment / Earnings: further modest uptick seen in Claimant Count,
but FLS Employment seen at fresh high, Earnings ex-Bonus seen at
14 month high
- Fed: rate hike 'baked in the cake'; focus on dot plot rate trajectory
and forecasts: GDP and Unemployment unchanged, CPI nudged higher?
Yellen likely cautious on Trump impact on economy
- US Retail Sales: auto sales slip to restrain headline, but further solid
gain seen across the board, pointing to solid Q4 Personal Consumption
contribution to GDP
- US PPI expected to remain well contained, Industrial Production expected
to slip as flagged by Average Weekly Hours
- Charts: WTI Oil future, RUB/USD, US 5 yr breakeven and 5y/5y Forward
Breakeven rate, September FOMC 'dot plot' and forecasts
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The FOMC meeting dominates the day's schedule, though the latest UK labour data along with US Retail Sales, PPI and Industrial Production and South African CPI will offer worthy distractions in the pre-FOMC vigil, while the UK concludes its 2016 auction schedule with £800 Mln of 20-yr Index-Linked Gilts. EIA Crude Inventories will be also be closely monitored as oil prices correct on the back of last night's API statistics, which showed crude oil stocks rose 4.7 mln bbls against expectations of a 1.6 Mln fall, and following the IEA's estimate that November OPEC oil output was 34.2 Mln, 500K bbls above prior estimate. In that respect, some attention also needs to be paid to the Russian Rouble's rally (see chart), which is threatening to take the cross rate vs the USD below Bank Rossi's perceived line in the sand around 60.0, and by extension implies the risk of an unexpected rate cut of say 50 bps on Friday.
** U.K. - Oct/Nov Labour data **
- Today's labour data are projected to show another relatively modest rise in the Claimant Count of 6.5K, after a higher than expected 9.8K in October, while the FLS Employment measure is seen little changed at a solid if unspectacular 50K (vs. 49K), but still pointing to a reasonable pace of labour demand and the likelihood of a new-all time high for those in Employment. As ever the composition of the labour market gains, i.e. full-time, part-time and self-employment require particular scrutiny, given that many of the recent gains have been in part-time and self-employment; the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 4.8%. Average Weekly Earnings are forecast to show an unchanged 2.3% y/y rise, however the 'core' ex-bonus measure is projected to pick up to 2.6% y/y, which would be the highest reading since August 2015, even if the BoE will hardly see this as a point of concern, indeed will probably welcome the rise, given concerns that it will keep real earnings firmly in positive territory ... for the time being.
** U.S.A. - Nov Retail Sales, PPI & Industrial Production
- Retail Sales are expected to post a 0.3% m/m after the strong 0.8% m/m increase in October, with auto sales restraining the headline gain modestly, while core measures are seen up 0.4% m/m, which bodes well for Q4 Personal Consumption. However as this is a value not a volume measure, it remains to be seen whether tomorrow's CPI takes the edge off any strength in 'real' terms. Today's PPI is seen posting a very subdued 0.1% m/m rise after a lower than expected flat m/m print in October, which would see the headline rate edge up to 0.9% y/y from 0.85, while core PPI is seen reversing October's -0.2% m/m with a 0.2% m/m rise, again still very subdued. As has been already flagged in the Average Weekly Hours data in the labour data, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are expected to post declines of 0.3% and 0.2% m/m respectively, following October's Flat and 0.2% m/m, per se somewhat disappointing when compared with the pick-up in recent sector surveys, though the latter probably reflect optimism on the outlook as much as anything else.
** U.S.A. - FOMC rate decision **
- A 25 bps hike to 0.50%-0.75% has long been 100% discounted, and all eyes will be on the latest staff forecasts and rate trajectory 'dot plot', which most expect to continue to signal a median two rate hike estimate for 2017. As a reminder, the September dot plot and forecasts are attached, and perhaps the key question is whether some of the more hawkish members of the FOMC revise their rate projections higher on the assumption that the underlying pace of growth is set to pick up, which may impart a rather confusing / divergent picture in terms of the median path. There is indeed some risk that CPI and GDP forecasts may also be nudged higher, which would impart a 'less dovish' profile to the rate outlook. However Ms Yellen will probably be rather circumspect in terms of the outlook, underlining that the Fed will see how the economy responds to whatever Mr Trump outlines and actually implements in terms of economic and fiscal measures. Given the rise in long-term interest rates, the relatively sharp steepening of the US yield curve and the strength of the US dollar, it will be particularly important to pay attention to what the statement and Yellen may or may not say about the obvious tightening of financial conditions, and its implications for the economy and the rate outlook.
from Marc Ostwald
data, US Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production & Business Inventories;
UK to sell 20-yr Index-Linked; EIA inventories eyed after unexpected
API crude inventory build
- UK Unemployment / Earnings: further modest uptick seen in Claimant Count,
but FLS Employment seen at fresh high, Earnings ex-Bonus seen at
14 month high
- Fed: rate hike 'baked in the cake'; focus on dot plot rate trajectory
and forecasts: GDP and Unemployment unchanged, CPI nudged higher?
Yellen likely cautious on Trump impact on economy
- US Retail Sales: auto sales slip to restrain headline, but further solid
gain seen across the board, pointing to solid Q4 Personal Consumption
contribution to GDP
- US PPI expected to remain well contained, Industrial Production expected
to slip as flagged by Average Weekly Hours
- Charts: WTI Oil future, RUB/USD, US 5 yr breakeven and 5y/5y Forward
Breakeven rate, September FOMC 'dot plot' and forecasts
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The FOMC meeting dominates the day's schedule, though the latest UK labour data along with US Retail Sales, PPI and Industrial Production and South African CPI will offer worthy distractions in the pre-FOMC vigil, while the UK concludes its 2016 auction schedule with £800 Mln of 20-yr Index-Linked Gilts. EIA Crude Inventories will be also be closely monitored as oil prices correct on the back of last night's API statistics, which showed crude oil stocks rose 4.7 mln bbls against expectations of a 1.6 Mln fall, and following the IEA's estimate that November OPEC oil output was 34.2 Mln, 500K bbls above prior estimate. In that respect, some attention also needs to be paid to the Russian Rouble's rally (see chart), which is threatening to take the cross rate vs the USD below Bank Rossi's perceived line in the sand around 60.0, and by extension implies the risk of an unexpected rate cut of say 50 bps on Friday.
** U.K. - Oct/Nov Labour data **
- Today's labour data are projected to show another relatively modest rise in the Claimant Count of 6.5K, after a higher than expected 9.8K in October, while the FLS Employment measure is seen little changed at a solid if unspectacular 50K (vs. 49K), but still pointing to a reasonable pace of labour demand and the likelihood of a new-all time high for those in Employment. As ever the composition of the labour market gains, i.e. full-time, part-time and self-employment require particular scrutiny, given that many of the recent gains have been in part-time and self-employment; the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at its cyclical low of 4.8%. Average Weekly Earnings are forecast to show an unchanged 2.3% y/y rise, however the 'core' ex-bonus measure is projected to pick up to 2.6% y/y, which would be the highest reading since August 2015, even if the BoE will hardly see this as a point of concern, indeed will probably welcome the rise, given concerns that it will keep real earnings firmly in positive territory ... for the time being.
** U.S.A. - Nov Retail Sales, PPI & Industrial Production
- Retail Sales are expected to post a 0.3% m/m after the strong 0.8% m/m increase in October, with auto sales restraining the headline gain modestly, while core measures are seen up 0.4% m/m, which bodes well for Q4 Personal Consumption. However as this is a value not a volume measure, it remains to be seen whether tomorrow's CPI takes the edge off any strength in 'real' terms. Today's PPI is seen posting a very subdued 0.1% m/m rise after a lower than expected flat m/m print in October, which would see the headline rate edge up to 0.9% y/y from 0.85, while core PPI is seen reversing October's -0.2% m/m with a 0.2% m/m rise, again still very subdued. As has been already flagged in the Average Weekly Hours data in the labour data, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output are expected to post declines of 0.3% and 0.2% m/m respectively, following October's Flat and 0.2% m/m, per se somewhat disappointing when compared with the pick-up in recent sector surveys, though the latter probably reflect optimism on the outlook as much as anything else.
** U.S.A. - FOMC rate decision **
- A 25 bps hike to 0.50%-0.75% has long been 100% discounted, and all eyes will be on the latest staff forecasts and rate trajectory 'dot plot', which most expect to continue to signal a median two rate hike estimate for 2017. As a reminder, the September dot plot and forecasts are attached, and perhaps the key question is whether some of the more hawkish members of the FOMC revise their rate projections higher on the assumption that the underlying pace of growth is set to pick up, which may impart a rather confusing / divergent picture in terms of the median path. There is indeed some risk that CPI and GDP forecasts may also be nudged higher, which would impart a 'less dovish' profile to the rate outlook. However Ms Yellen will probably be rather circumspect in terms of the outlook, underlining that the Fed will see how the economy responds to whatever Mr Trump outlines and actually implements in terms of economic and fiscal measures. Given the rise in long-term interest rates, the relatively sharp steepening of the US yield curve and the strength of the US dollar, it will be particularly important to pay attention to what the statement and Yellen may or may not say about the obvious tightening of financial conditions, and its implications for the economy and the rate outlook.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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oil/wti
Dentalfloss
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plenty of supp areas above 50.00
no real sign of any bears
no real sign of any bears
Dentalfloss
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usdjpy/carry trade
that internal/aqua is important for stocks
that internal/aqua is important for stocks
G'day folks,
FTSE treading water 6950. Waiting for data....
Oil WTI and cable likewise.... cable having a few fakes up and down atm to entice bait fish!... see a move to sp 1.2640 - 50.
Could see ftse move to 6990 -7K on FOMC statement, otherwise 6900... depends on the reading of the tea leaves for future hike rate or otherwise. Think Yellen will be cautious on rate rises 2017 so pump more likely imho. Lets see.
FTSE treading water 6950. Waiting for data....
Oil WTI and cable likewise.... cable having a few fakes up and down atm to entice bait fish!... see a move to sp 1.2640 - 50.
Could see ftse move to 6990 -7K on FOMC statement, otherwise 6900... depends on the reading of the tea leaves for future hike rate or otherwise. Think Yellen will be cautious on rate rises 2017 so pump more likely imho. Lets see.
Dentalfloss
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DAX
short term
decent supp above 11200 area
short term
decent supp above 11200 area
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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plenty of horizontal rez areas and plenty of horizontal supp areas
trend is up
trend is up
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
in swing trade territory/long
lets see what happens
in swing trade territory/long
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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could get 7050 pre fomc..stop hunting
Currently flat with ftse atm..... plenty of fakes/stop hunting... At times like this if I take a position small stake/no hard stop with limit order in, otherwise get taken out imho.
Dentalfloss
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DOW short term
Dentalfloss
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spx has a wide supp zone 2250-2270
could go anywhere in that
could go anywhere in that
Dentalfloss
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trend test is 2260 area
we could pullback to that prefomc
we could pullback to that prefomc
Moneylender
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Bounced off of 19860 again!
Dentalfloss
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wham...excellent pivot
Moneylender
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And again, 19860 working really well
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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been a nice little earner today and yesterday
