Moneylender
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Nice rejection of 19245
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Nice rejection of 19245
Dentalfloss
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Our 'rez work in well....19240..area
Last edited:
Atilla
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I don't think so for oil. $52 enough for now. Need to look at supply (glut) of oil. OPEC now need to backup words with action. Until then I'd ease off and we may see
PP-R2 @ 49.60s
PP-R3 @ 48.00s even.
Cable just wants to take out 1.28 as cabinet softening Brexit stance. Even Davies now talking sense about contributing some money.
1.2740-50s holding thus far. Still favour upside.
Is there any possibility Fed will change mind on rates?
Dentalfloss
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Milk it
Moneylender
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trying hard mate. lol
Dentalfloss
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50.32 and bounce
Luvin it
Luvin it
Dentalfloss
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Stops tight now
Moneylender
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19100 retest is looking poss
Dentalfloss
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Cable
Our 1.2762 milking work in extremely well
Stops tight now
Our 1.2762 milking work in extremely well
Stops tight now
Dentalfloss
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Retested that 19188 pivot area..and bounceDOW in a pivot area 19188-19200
Moneylender
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Critical point now! 19185
Dentalfloss
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mornin bruvs and sisters
Dentalfloss
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dax flying
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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6840 rez on ftse ..we marked that a few days ago
p/b needs to stay above 6800...keep bulls happy
p/b needs to stay above 6800...keep bulls happy
Dentalfloss
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cable
our 1.2762 rez area ...really hummin now
stops tight
our 1.2762 rez area ...really hummin now
stops tight
Dentalfloss
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oil
our 50.32 area keeps gettin tested
excellent
our 50.32 area keeps gettin tested
excellent
Dentalfloss
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dax could easily spike above 11K...Draghi
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting weaker Oz GDP, soft German Industrial Production and Japan
Tankan; awaiting UK Production and NIESR GDP estimate, RBI rate decision
and US JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Credit; Italy politics also in
focus along with German 2-yr, UK 30-yr bond sales as focus turns to ECB
meeting
- Australia Q3 GDP: weather a factor exacerbating weakness, commodity
exports likely to pace Q4 rebound; RBA rate hike prospects firmly kicked
into touch in short to medium term
- German Industrial Production: very weak bounce from September slide,
but surge in Orders set to pace overall pick-up in Q4
- UK Industrial Production: manufacturing output seen sustaining H2
pick-up, headline production set to rebound from resource/utility drag
in September
- Italy politics: February election rather improbable given timing of
Constitutional court ruling; April/May more likely
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively busy day for statistics may nevertheless have a rather limited impact. The overnight larger than expected Australian Q3 GDP contraction needs to be digested ahead of the often overhyped China FX Reserves, German and UK Industrial Production, while US JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Credit will almost certainly prove to more of academic interest than market sensitive. Of rather more material interest will be the RBI rate decision and policy outlook following the demonetization 'shock', with no change policy decision seen in both Poland and Canada. Banca d'Italia's monthly report on bank balance sheet aggregates may attract even more attention than usual given the broad array of political and banking uncertainties in Italy, though the fact that the Constitutional Court hearing on the voting system has now been nailed down to January 24 does suggest that the mooted prospect of a February General Election looks to be an unlikely proposition, with April/May more likely, given that the court's ruling will determine the operating parameters for the election. A Bloomberg primer on what is involved can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...te-plans-to-stop-the-populists-quicktake-q-a?. On the government bond auction front, Germany sells a modest EUR 3.0 Bln of 2-yr, with yields back at their end September levels but still at a super unattractive -0.69% and facing event risk from tomorrow's ECB policy decisions, while the UK helps to absorb the hefty coupon flows that are paid out today with a sale of 30-yr conventional Gilts. Today's RBI rate decision will attract plenty of attention following the 'demonetization shock', with the RBI expected to cut its Repo Rate 25 bps to 6.0%, and its Reverse Repo rate by a similar amount to 5.75%, while keeping its Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%; some see a larger 50 bps cut. It is also expected to ease policy once more thereafter, but the key question is what sort of a drag on GDP it expects from the 'demonetization shock'. It also needs to weigh its policy options in light of the modest weakening of the INR and the rise in oil prices. In respect of Australia's -0.4% q/q Q3 GDP contraction, it should not really have come as a great surprise given the run of weak monthly and quarterly reports over the past four to six weeks, and was in no small part predicated on Australian seeing the second wettest winter in 100 years, which clearly weighed on the construction and resource sector. The economy should see a rebound in the current quarter, with the Q3 income components of the report starting to see the benefits from a boost to export volumes and values from resource sector. While the RBA is unlikely to respond the Q3 weakness with a further cut in rates, the subdued pace of growth and low level of inflation suggest that it is unlikely to be considering the mooted hike in rates in H2 2017 without evidence of a robust and sustained rebound in overall activity.
** Germany/UK - Oct Industrial Production **
- After yesterday's stellar Orders data, today's German Industrial Production look distinctly underwhelming, eking out a smaller than forecast +0.3% m/m vs. expectations of +0.8% and following a revised -1.6% m/m in September, with weakness in Intermediate Goods (-0.5% m/m) and Non-Durables (-0.8% m/m) offsetting a 4.3% m/m in the always volatile Consumer Durable Goods. That said yesterday's Orders gain was paced by Capital Goods and will as such feed into output in coming months rather than showing up in this, and likely to provide an Order backlog that sustains production well into Q1. AS for the UK, last month's headline Industrial Production fall (-0.4% m/m) was paced primarily by utilities and mining/exploration, with Manufacturing Output registering a 0.6% m/m gain, with both measures seen up 0.2% m/m in October, and thus echoing recent surveys (such as the weekend one from the EEF) suggesting a healthy pallor for the sector. The afternoon will bring the latest NIESR GDP estimate for the Sept-Nov period, which is seen unchanged at 0.4% q/q, underlining that whatever headwinds may materialize from the Brexit process, they are not currently having an impact
from Marc Ostwald
Tankan; awaiting UK Production and NIESR GDP estimate, RBI rate decision
and US JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Credit; Italy politics also in
focus along with German 2-yr, UK 30-yr bond sales as focus turns to ECB
meeting
- Australia Q3 GDP: weather a factor exacerbating weakness, commodity
exports likely to pace Q4 rebound; RBA rate hike prospects firmly kicked
into touch in short to medium term
- German Industrial Production: very weak bounce from September slide,
but surge in Orders set to pace overall pick-up in Q4
- UK Industrial Production: manufacturing output seen sustaining H2
pick-up, headline production set to rebound from resource/utility drag
in September
- Italy politics: February election rather improbable given timing of
Constitutional court ruling; April/May more likely
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively busy day for statistics may nevertheless have a rather limited impact. The overnight larger than expected Australian Q3 GDP contraction needs to be digested ahead of the often overhyped China FX Reserves, German and UK Industrial Production, while US JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Credit will almost certainly prove to more of academic interest than market sensitive. Of rather more material interest will be the RBI rate decision and policy outlook following the demonetization 'shock', with no change policy decision seen in both Poland and Canada. Banca d'Italia's monthly report on bank balance sheet aggregates may attract even more attention than usual given the broad array of political and banking uncertainties in Italy, though the fact that the Constitutional Court hearing on the voting system has now been nailed down to January 24 does suggest that the mooted prospect of a February General Election looks to be an unlikely proposition, with April/May more likely, given that the court's ruling will determine the operating parameters for the election. A Bloomberg primer on what is involved can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...te-plans-to-stop-the-populists-quicktake-q-a?. On the government bond auction front, Germany sells a modest EUR 3.0 Bln of 2-yr, with yields back at their end September levels but still at a super unattractive -0.69% and facing event risk from tomorrow's ECB policy decisions, while the UK helps to absorb the hefty coupon flows that are paid out today with a sale of 30-yr conventional Gilts. Today's RBI rate decision will attract plenty of attention following the 'demonetization shock', with the RBI expected to cut its Repo Rate 25 bps to 6.0%, and its Reverse Repo rate by a similar amount to 5.75%, while keeping its Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%; some see a larger 50 bps cut. It is also expected to ease policy once more thereafter, but the key question is what sort of a drag on GDP it expects from the 'demonetization shock'. It also needs to weigh its policy options in light of the modest weakening of the INR and the rise in oil prices. In respect of Australia's -0.4% q/q Q3 GDP contraction, it should not really have come as a great surprise given the run of weak monthly and quarterly reports over the past four to six weeks, and was in no small part predicated on Australian seeing the second wettest winter in 100 years, which clearly weighed on the construction and resource sector. The economy should see a rebound in the current quarter, with the Q3 income components of the report starting to see the benefits from a boost to export volumes and values from resource sector. While the RBA is unlikely to respond the Q3 weakness with a further cut in rates, the subdued pace of growth and low level of inflation suggest that it is unlikely to be considering the mooted hike in rates in H2 2017 without evidence of a robust and sustained rebound in overall activity.
** Germany/UK - Oct Industrial Production **
- After yesterday's stellar Orders data, today's German Industrial Production look distinctly underwhelming, eking out a smaller than forecast +0.3% m/m vs. expectations of +0.8% and following a revised -1.6% m/m in September, with weakness in Intermediate Goods (-0.5% m/m) and Non-Durables (-0.8% m/m) offsetting a 4.3% m/m in the always volatile Consumer Durable Goods. That said yesterday's Orders gain was paced by Capital Goods and will as such feed into output in coming months rather than showing up in this, and likely to provide an Order backlog that sustains production well into Q1. AS for the UK, last month's headline Industrial Production fall (-0.4% m/m) was paced primarily by utilities and mining/exploration, with Manufacturing Output registering a 0.6% m/m gain, with both measures seen up 0.2% m/m in October, and thus echoing recent surveys (such as the weekend one from the EEF) suggesting a healthy pallor for the sector. The afternoon will bring the latest NIESR GDP estimate for the Sept-Nov period, which is seen unchanged at 0.4% q/q, underlining that whatever headwinds may materialize from the Brexit process, they are not currently having an impact
from Marc Ostwald
