Dentalfloss
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workin well..so far
tight stops
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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tight stops
Dentalfloss
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supp area seems to be holding...lets seeFTSE
scalps in
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
purple trendline gives a feel of a bull flag...only if supp holds
purple trendline gives a feel of a bull flag...only if supp holds
Dentalfloss
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change inputs
Dentalfloss
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supp at 6720..then 6700
there is a big wodge of supp from 6632-6700
direction unclear
thinking we get a deeper p/b into 6630 area...a trap
who knows...lol
all we can play is supp/rez until we get direction
there is a big wodge of supp from 6632-6700
direction unclear
thinking we get a deeper p/b into 6630 area...a trap
who knows...lol
all we can play is supp/rez until we get direction
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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6816 could be a dog
Dentalfloss
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SPX
no break of trend...as yet
just fumbling around
we could fake into 2188 area..trap the bears
just over 2 weeks of data
no break of trend...as yet
just fumbling around
we could fake into 2188 area..trap the bears
just over 2 weeks of data
Dentalfloss
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dax rez 10684 area
nearly there
nearly there
Dentalfloss
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DAX
Dentalfloss
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- OPEC meeting dominates very busy schedule of data and events to
bring November to a close
- Digesting Japan / Korea Production, UK Consumer Confidence ahead of
Eurozone CPI, Brazil / Canada / India Q3 GDP and US Personal Income /
PCE, Pending Home Sales
- BoE stress tests, Beige Book, Fed and ECB speak; further Brazil rate
cut expected; Germany to sell 5-yr
- Eurozone CPI: miss on German CPI and slower Services prices impart
modest downside risk to headline and core forecasts
- India Q3 GDP: seen posting usual Q3 pick-up, but 'demonetization shock'
seen weighing heavily in next two quarters
- Canada Q3 GDP: set to bounce back from Q2 Alberta wildfires and export
drag, but slower consumer spending implies weakening momentum to end qtr
- US Personal Income / PCE: further solid gains expected, some upside risks
- US Pending Home Sales: seen flat after Sept surge, may still beat forecast
- Charts: JPY & EUR 3-mth X-Ccy Basis Swap; JPM EMBI spread; US HY Bond
ETF; Copper, Lead, Zinc
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As a packed programme of data and events goes, today is a contender in the heavyweight category. The OPEC ministerial meeting will take pride of place, though the BoE's bank stress tests should provide plenty of distractions as markets wait on OPEC, while the first post-election Fed Beige Book and a gaggle of Fed speakers combine with a speech from Draghi, which will almost certainly not offer any hints on next week's policy meeting, and an expected second 25 bps rate cut from Brazil's COPOM, though this will still leave rates at a bone crunching 13.75%, and political scandals remain the dominant theme for Brazil. A busy day statistically has the weak UK GfK Consumer Confidence, ever erratic German Retail Sales and French CPI to digest ahead of German Unemployment, Eurozone & Italian CPI; Brazil, India and Canada Q3 GDP, and for the US ADP Employment, Personal Income PCE, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Germany also holds an auction of just EUR 3.0 Bln of 5-yr OBL. As for this week's reversal of recent fortunes in bonds and equities, we would attribute end of month re-weighting and profit-taking as cause rather than doubts over the 'Trump thump' and 'Trumpflation', even if there are good reasons to question the impact of the latter on short-term economic growth, and by extension assumed demand for raw materials, which has seen the likes of Copper, Iron Ore Lead and Zinc 'on a tear', fuelled also in no small part by Chinese hot money flows, which appears likely to fade if Chinese authorities efforts to curb capital outflows continue to put the CNY on a slightly firmer footing vs. the USD. There is also considerable focus on fresh lows being seen in JPY and EUR cross-currency basis swaps, above all in the context of the rising risks of an offshore UsD (i.e. Eurodollar) shortage, which remains very real, though the widening spread should come as no surprise given the confidence with which markets are now discounting a December Fed move, and by contrast the prior suspicions that the ECB and BoJ might be looking to tiptoe away from further accommodation being put on the backburner for the time being.
** Eurozone - November CPI **
- Yesterday's slightly below forecast German CPI, paced a slower pace of Services CPI, imparts a small downside risk to both headline and core CPI readings, which are forecast at 0.5% y/y (vs 0.6%) and unchanged 0.8% y/y respectively. Per se the they will merely reaffirm expectations that the ECB will remain accommodative next week; however the more material swing factors in terms of 'how' accommodative will be the oil market's reaction to today's OPEC meeting, and of course the market impact of Sunday's Italian referendum.
** India - Q3 GDP/GVA **
- The world' fastest growing major economy is expected to see GDP rebound to 7.5% y/y from Q2's slightly below expectations 7.1% y/y, though as Q3 accelerations in recent years go, this would be on the modest side. Indeed the shock of Modi's surprise demonetization may well render anything better than the consensus forecast (the range of forecasts being quite wide at 6.5% to 8.7%) as being rather moot, given the expected drag on Q4, which could spill over into Q1, with some suggesting that FY2016/2017 GDP could slow to as little as 4.1% from the prior fiscal year's 7.6%! The latter is also expected to give the RBI scope to cut rates again, probably in Q1.
** Canada - Q3 GDP **
- On an initial blush, the expected rebound in Q3 GDP to a 3.5% SAAR pace looks quite impressive, though this does follow the 1.6% fall in Q2 (the largest fall since the 2009 recession), which owed much to a substantial drag from the Alberta wildfires, as well as ongoing headwinds to the energy sector, and a rather weak overall export sector performance, which saw trade chop 5.6 ppts off headline in Q2. That is anticipated to be have been partially reversed in Q3, though the consensus appears to be that Net Exports will add around 2.0-2.5 ppts to Q3, while Govt Spending is also seen providing a more substantial boost as fiscal stimulus starts to get some traction. Signs that Consumer Spending slowed into the end of the quarter, the monthly GDP reading for September is seen at just 0.1% m/m, which would see the y/y rate pick up to 1.8% y/y from August's rather meagre 1.3% y/y. Poloz's comments on Monday evening suggest that the BoC's policy stance is firmly in neutral, expecting that fiscal measures will continue to provide a boost to domestic economy, and unlikely to consider further easing without a signal that either inflation is likely to substantially miss their forecasts and/or growth proves very lacklustre.
** U.S.A. - Fed Beige Book **
- The run of incoming data has generally been fairly impressive, with surveys suggesting a very clear pick-up in business and consumer sentiment in the immediate period following the election. Thus today's Beige Book should in theory see a noticeable pick-up relative to the October 19 report, which depicted growth as "modest or moderate", while activity outlooks were described as "slight or moderate", product price pressures as largely noticeable by their absence, though the tightness of the labour market was clearly exercising fairly broad based upward pressure on wages, primarily due to skills shortages. Prior Beige Book here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201610.htm.
** U.S.A. - Oct Personal Income/PCE, Pending Home Sales **
- As has already been evidenced by Retail Sales, Personal Consumption continued to expand at a solid pace in October, and wage growth also accelerated, therefore the risks would appear to be modestly to the upside of forecasts of 0.4% m/m and 0.% m/m respectively for Personal Income and PCE. As with CPI, the PCE deflators are anticipated to see energy prices pace a forecast 0.3% m/m 1.5% y/y rise at the headline level, while the core measure is seen up just 0.1% m/m for an unchanged 1.7% y/y, close to, but still sufficiently below target to justify the Fed's very shallow rate trajectory. Pending Home Sales are projected to have been unchanged on the month, predicated on a reactive correction to September's 1.5% m/m jump, though given the strength of Existing Home Sales (at a 9 1/2 year high of 5.60 Mln SAAR), and the fact that Pending Sales have lagged other sales measures, a stronger than expected rise looks possible. It remains to be seen at what point the recent rise in Mortgage Rates starts to impinge on sales, though it can be argued that expectations that they may rise further may see a short-term surge in demand to beat the rise. MBA Mortgage Applications (also due today) will require closer monitoring.
from Marc Ostwald
bring November to a close
- Digesting Japan / Korea Production, UK Consumer Confidence ahead of
Eurozone CPI, Brazil / Canada / India Q3 GDP and US Personal Income /
PCE, Pending Home Sales
- BoE stress tests, Beige Book, Fed and ECB speak; further Brazil rate
cut expected; Germany to sell 5-yr
- Eurozone CPI: miss on German CPI and slower Services prices impart
modest downside risk to headline and core forecasts
- India Q3 GDP: seen posting usual Q3 pick-up, but 'demonetization shock'
seen weighing heavily in next two quarters
- Canada Q3 GDP: set to bounce back from Q2 Alberta wildfires and export
drag, but slower consumer spending implies weakening momentum to end qtr
- US Personal Income / PCE: further solid gains expected, some upside risks
- US Pending Home Sales: seen flat after Sept surge, may still beat forecast
- Charts: JPY & EUR 3-mth X-Ccy Basis Swap; JPM EMBI spread; US HY Bond
ETF; Copper, Lead, Zinc
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As a packed programme of data and events goes, today is a contender in the heavyweight category. The OPEC ministerial meeting will take pride of place, though the BoE's bank stress tests should provide plenty of distractions as markets wait on OPEC, while the first post-election Fed Beige Book and a gaggle of Fed speakers combine with a speech from Draghi, which will almost certainly not offer any hints on next week's policy meeting, and an expected second 25 bps rate cut from Brazil's COPOM, though this will still leave rates at a bone crunching 13.75%, and political scandals remain the dominant theme for Brazil. A busy day statistically has the weak UK GfK Consumer Confidence, ever erratic German Retail Sales and French CPI to digest ahead of German Unemployment, Eurozone & Italian CPI; Brazil, India and Canada Q3 GDP, and for the US ADP Employment, Personal Income PCE, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales. Germany also holds an auction of just EUR 3.0 Bln of 5-yr OBL. As for this week's reversal of recent fortunes in bonds and equities, we would attribute end of month re-weighting and profit-taking as cause rather than doubts over the 'Trump thump' and 'Trumpflation', even if there are good reasons to question the impact of the latter on short-term economic growth, and by extension assumed demand for raw materials, which has seen the likes of Copper, Iron Ore Lead and Zinc 'on a tear', fuelled also in no small part by Chinese hot money flows, which appears likely to fade if Chinese authorities efforts to curb capital outflows continue to put the CNY on a slightly firmer footing vs. the USD. There is also considerable focus on fresh lows being seen in JPY and EUR cross-currency basis swaps, above all in the context of the rising risks of an offshore UsD (i.e. Eurodollar) shortage, which remains very real, though the widening spread should come as no surprise given the confidence with which markets are now discounting a December Fed move, and by contrast the prior suspicions that the ECB and BoJ might be looking to tiptoe away from further accommodation being put on the backburner for the time being.
** Eurozone - November CPI **
- Yesterday's slightly below forecast German CPI, paced a slower pace of Services CPI, imparts a small downside risk to both headline and core CPI readings, which are forecast at 0.5% y/y (vs 0.6%) and unchanged 0.8% y/y respectively. Per se the they will merely reaffirm expectations that the ECB will remain accommodative next week; however the more material swing factors in terms of 'how' accommodative will be the oil market's reaction to today's OPEC meeting, and of course the market impact of Sunday's Italian referendum.
** India - Q3 GDP/GVA **
- The world' fastest growing major economy is expected to see GDP rebound to 7.5% y/y from Q2's slightly below expectations 7.1% y/y, though as Q3 accelerations in recent years go, this would be on the modest side. Indeed the shock of Modi's surprise demonetization may well render anything better than the consensus forecast (the range of forecasts being quite wide at 6.5% to 8.7%) as being rather moot, given the expected drag on Q4, which could spill over into Q1, with some suggesting that FY2016/2017 GDP could slow to as little as 4.1% from the prior fiscal year's 7.6%! The latter is also expected to give the RBI scope to cut rates again, probably in Q1.
** Canada - Q3 GDP **
- On an initial blush, the expected rebound in Q3 GDP to a 3.5% SAAR pace looks quite impressive, though this does follow the 1.6% fall in Q2 (the largest fall since the 2009 recession), which owed much to a substantial drag from the Alberta wildfires, as well as ongoing headwinds to the energy sector, and a rather weak overall export sector performance, which saw trade chop 5.6 ppts off headline in Q2. That is anticipated to be have been partially reversed in Q3, though the consensus appears to be that Net Exports will add around 2.0-2.5 ppts to Q3, while Govt Spending is also seen providing a more substantial boost as fiscal stimulus starts to get some traction. Signs that Consumer Spending slowed into the end of the quarter, the monthly GDP reading for September is seen at just 0.1% m/m, which would see the y/y rate pick up to 1.8% y/y from August's rather meagre 1.3% y/y. Poloz's comments on Monday evening suggest that the BoC's policy stance is firmly in neutral, expecting that fiscal measures will continue to provide a boost to domestic economy, and unlikely to consider further easing without a signal that either inflation is likely to substantially miss their forecasts and/or growth proves very lacklustre.
** U.S.A. - Fed Beige Book **
- The run of incoming data has generally been fairly impressive, with surveys suggesting a very clear pick-up in business and consumer sentiment in the immediate period following the election. Thus today's Beige Book should in theory see a noticeable pick-up relative to the October 19 report, which depicted growth as "modest or moderate", while activity outlooks were described as "slight or moderate", product price pressures as largely noticeable by their absence, though the tightness of the labour market was clearly exercising fairly broad based upward pressure on wages, primarily due to skills shortages. Prior Beige Book here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201610.htm.
** U.S.A. - Oct Personal Income/PCE, Pending Home Sales **
- As has already been evidenced by Retail Sales, Personal Consumption continued to expand at a solid pace in October, and wage growth also accelerated, therefore the risks would appear to be modestly to the upside of forecasts of 0.4% m/m and 0.% m/m respectively for Personal Income and PCE. As with CPI, the PCE deflators are anticipated to see energy prices pace a forecast 0.3% m/m 1.5% y/y rise at the headline level, while the core measure is seen up just 0.1% m/m for an unchanged 1.7% y/y, close to, but still sufficiently below target to justify the Fed's very shallow rate trajectory. Pending Home Sales are projected to have been unchanged on the month, predicated on a reactive correction to September's 1.5% m/m jump, though given the strength of Existing Home Sales (at a 9 1/2 year high of 5.60 Mln SAAR), and the fact that Pending Sales have lagged other sales measures, a stronger than expected rise looks possible. It remains to be seen at what point the recent rise in Mortgage Rates starts to impinge on sales, though it can be argued that expectations that they may rise further may see a short-term surge in demand to beat the rise. MBA Mortgage Applications (also due today) will require closer monitoring.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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DOW
in rez now
in rez now
Dentalfloss
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a closer look at dow
Dentalfloss
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our 10684 area
6824
19150 workin well
so far
scalps in and out
6824
19150 workin well
so far
scalps in and out
Dentalfloss
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luvin it
Dentalfloss
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10684....luvin itDAX
Dentalfloss
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stops very tight on all 3
Dentalfloss
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6775..stopped out
dax and dow also
excellent run
dax and dow also
excellent run
Dentalfloss
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do we bounce or continue down...??
