Trading with point and figure

DAX
since 30th October
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i have ignored the trump volatility
 
- Quiet start to Thanksgiving week, digesting Japan Trade, awaiting Draghi
and other ECB speakers

- Week Ahead: US Durable Goods, revised UK Q3 GDP, flash PMIs, Ifo and
other surveys top modest schedule of data; FOMC minutes and UK Autumn
Statement top policy schedule; oil markets on guard for news ahead of
November 30 OPEC meeting

- Notes from Warsaw CEE investment forum

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It will be a rather quiet start to Thanksgiving week in terms of scheduled data and events, with little more than the weaker than expected overnight Japan Trade data to digest ahead of a round of ECB speak. The outcome of the Republican party's primary for the French presidential election with Sarkozy losing out to Fillon and Juppe removes one element of risk, in so far as Sarkozy was seen as likely to lose to Front National leader Le Pen, though it will not dispel the overall concern. The US kicks off its end of month funding exercise with $26 Bln of new 2-yr Treasury notes, for which a substantial concession has been carved out, though on a 1.07% yield the current 2-yr assumes a very low rate trajectory. The week's overall statistical schedule will find its main highlights in US Durable Goods, the detailed first revision to UK Q3 GDP and an an array of surveys, including flash Eurozone PMIs, Germany's Ifo and final US Michigan Sentiment. As markets have now fully discounted a December Fed rate hike, there will be some interest in what the November 1-2 FOMC minutes suggest might be a bar to a December move. Wednesday's UK Autumn Statement will also be very closely watched, as markets look to assess exactly what form and level of fiscal stimulus will be put in place, with the details thus far looking rather underwhelming.

- Warsaw CEE Investment forum - some notes on participant view and concerns -

There is no doubt that the primary concern and talking point was Trump, though the array of upcoming Italian, Dutch, French and German votes were also very much front and central.

Brexit is not perceived as a major concern in market terms, "the UK is not a systemic risk" was a commonly expressed view. The was also plenty of talk about how many funds and some banks (above all US) will 'jump the gun', and not wait to see which way negotiations between the UK and EU go. Ironically, it is precisely because there are capacity constraints (both staff and property) in the three most favoured destinations, i.e. Frankfurt, Dublin and Luxembourg (above all for Funds), that many are already formulating plans to partially relocate. Most believe that negotiations will be very protracted, and that whatever agreement is reached will not be favourable for either side, but will create far more headwinds for the UK.

Brexit: the lack of any contingency planning prior to the referendum, and a perception that the UK government is taking a rather high handed and complacent stance in regards to its importance for Europe, is seen as confirming a view that the UK is in the process of marginalizing itself, and perhaps drifting towards the US. There is concern about the safety of CEE citizens living in the UK.

On Trump, there were two specific concerns: a) Trade sanctions and protectionism, above all a trade war with China would be damaging to the world economy, however China would likely be the clear winner given that Asia is in effect its playground. b) The relative emphasis on a more expansive fiscal policy as against Trade protectionism is also seen as important, above all if initial efforts focus on Trade rather than the fiscal side, then the current rise in Treasury and govt bond yields is expected to see a very sharp reversal. It was also suggested that the fiscal stimulus that has been touted, pales into insignificance relative to the stimulus that China has enacted since the GFC, even if it is fully implemented.

Views on the outlook for the US economy were typically divergent, though the majority expected the US economy to perform well over the next 2 to 3 years.

In geopolitical terms, there was a very understandable concern about Russian activity in the CEE region, above all the risks to the Baltic states, and as much as there remains a deep seated dislike (hatred?) for Russia, Putin's foreign policy was seen as by the far most credible and effective, above all relative to the EU and USA, whose foreign policies were either seen as incompetent or contradictory.

On China, the majority view was that while there will be problems related to the explosive growth in credit, and the rising volume of non-performing loans and bad debts, there is far too little market attention being paid to the asset side of China's balance sheet, which is seen as more than able to help it to weather any debt problems.

In regional terms, there are some concerns, though opinions differ, that the current Polish government is potentially inflicting long-term damage to the economy, above all to its already very underdeveloped capital markets, though others note that it took some two and a half years for Hungary to recover from the Orban/Fidesz 'shock'. Borrowers and investors are also very concerned about the lack of progress in developing local markets, with the lack of depth and liquidity, as well as local and EU/G20 regulations seen as impeding the development of local economies. It is also seen as perpetuating a dependence on the Eurozone banking system and Euro capital markets, which given Euro area banking woes and political risks poses the major risk to CEE economies. Interestingly many expressed the view that the surfeit of Family office and Private Equity cash looking for investment opportunities was crowding out IPOs in local markets in a very significant way.

from Marc Ostwald
 
dentist007 said:
10700 rez we marked at the weekend workin well...luvin it
6810 area on ftse ...we marked that last week...exceptional...excellent results today
Click to expand...

Had 6810 on limit order short as I was away from screen.... unfortunately my broker only got to 6808 on prices, so not triggered :( still it has worked very well in the recent past and I use it as something of a bellweather atm :smart:
 
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