Dentalfloss
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into our 2120....
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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rez on dow 18140-18160...there now
supp/prev breakout is 18040 area
lower aqua is 17980 area
supp/prev breakout is 18040 area
lower aqua is 17980 area
Dentalfloss
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market has priced in an uncontested Clinton win...could be wrong....lol
perfect bull trap
perfect bull trap
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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dow needs to get into 18250
spx gettin near our 2128 mega rez...could overshoot to 2130
spx gettin near our 2128 mega rez...could overshoot to 2130
Agreed...be looking for short opportunities after election results....whoever wins lol
Dentalfloss
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wham...excellent
scalps in and out
Dentalfloss
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mornin all
Dentalfloss
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DOW
our roadmap updated
smack into our rez area we marked yesterday
breakout/aqua is 18200 area..first supp if it retraces
our roadmap updated
smack into our rez area we marked yesterday
breakout/aqua is 18200 area..first supp if it retraces
Dentalfloss
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FTSE into the open
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
Dentalfloss
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rez on spx goes up to 2135 area..hit that yesterday
Dentalfloss
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we either...
continue higher in a decent uptrend
we pullback ../test supp and that fails..continue down
we could trap either way...bull or bear
or drift nowhere
continue higher in a decent uptrend
we pullback ../test supp and that fails..continue down
we could trap either way...bull or bear
or drift nowhere
Dentalfloss
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- All eyes on US election on busy day for statistics and govt bond auctions:
China Trade, UK BRC Sales, German / French Trade, German Ind Production
ahead of UK Production; Dutch 10-yr, German I-L 10-yr, new UK 2037
and US 3-yr on tap, more corporate earnings; OPEC Oil Outlook
- China Trade: somewhat weaker than expected, but commodity prices, CNY
fall and domestic factors advise care in interpretation
- German Trade/Production: as with orders, serving to temper upbeat message
from surveys
- UK Industrial Production: manufacturing expected to see further gain as
Q2 distortions unwind
- US election: markets very clearly priced for Clinton win, implying
sizeable gap risk in case of Trump victory; watch New Hampshire and
North Carolina for early signals
- Charts: China vs HK FX Reserves, WTI Oil, VIX & MOVE volatility indices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the focus for today and tomorrow is 100% on the outcome of the US elections, today's schedule is replete with key economic releases from the overnight China Trade and UK BRC Retail Sales through a run of Industrial Production and/or Trade data from Germany, France and the UK, the latter also sees the latest NIESR GDP estimate, while the US has NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. As oil prices attempt to find some sort of a near-term base, amid well justified scepticism about the deal to cap, let alone cut prodcution, today's OPEC annual World Oil Market Outlook will garner a lot of interest. However, it will be rather one dimensional, in other words focus on the supply/demand outlook, but will be short on details on a) how the Paris Climate Agreement will purposefully strand a large amount of hydrocarbon assets, probably sooner rather than later, thanks to quantum leap advances in technology, and b) how much damage will be inflicted on the budgets, social and infrastructure spending, and political 'stability' of many oil producing countries. The week's relatively busy schedule of govt bond auctions also gets under way with sales of 10-yr Netherlands DSL, 10-yr German Inflation-linked Bund, the launch of a new 2037 UK conventional Gilt, as the US kicks off its quarterly refunding with $24 Bln of 3-yr Treasury Notes; the BoE also conducts its over 15-yr buy back, which will be slightly larger at £1.052 Bln, in order to make up for the shortfall at the August 9 operation. Some Fed speak from non-voter Evans, an EU EcoFin meeting and more corporate earnings round off proceedings.
** China - October Trade Balance **
- At the margin, these were slightly disappointing data with exports and imports falling a little more than expected, though less than in September. Commodity imports and exports look to have been the swing factor, thougrh some care is needed in interpretation terms. For example, the fall in Iron Ore Imports looks to be a case of destocking at ports after a rapid accumulation in recent months, while the soft steel exports are probably due to a combination of rising domestic infrastucture output absorbing a higher proportion of output, with sluggish external demand continuing to act as a drag. That said, the German Steel Industry association sounded a cautiously upbeat tone yesterday, primarily on export prospects, given that the construction boom is underpinning export demand. Eminently the weakening of the CNY will also have had some impact on imports, the more so given the rise in many commodity prices, which the prior jump in import volumes may have been attempt to offset expectations of rising prices and any further weakening of the CNY. In passing, it is also worth noting that there was a particularly sharp divergence in yesterday's mainland ($-45.7 Bln) and Hong Kong FX ($+20.6 Bln) reserves, which is perhaps a reflection of attempts to offset Eurodollar shortages.
** Europe - Sept Industrial Production / Trade Balance **
- While German Exports (-0.7% m/m vs. rev. Aug +3.4% m/m) and Imports (-0.5% m/m vs. rev. Aug 1.9%), Industrial Production at -1.*% m/m +1.2% y/y vs. ann upwardly revised Aug 3.0% m/m 2.4% y/y were disappointing, given that Manufacturing Output also fell 1.7% m/m and leaves Q3 Industrial Production up just 0.3%, therefore contributing only marginally to Q3 GDP (due November 15). Official UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output have done their best to defy an analysis of underlying trends since the Easter timing related April surge, and the ensuing three months of 'reactive correction' declines, with post maintenance resumptions in the energy sector further complicating the picture. Be that as it may, the consensus looks for a flat m/m headline reading and a 0.4% m/m rise in Manufacturing Output, which looks to be predicated on the upturn in the sector PMI, and an extrapolation from the preliminary Q3 GDP data. However with politics (domestic and international) being the dominant influence, today's report will be primarily of interest in terms of potential Q3 GDP revisions, as well as this afternoon's NIESR GDP estimate.
** U.S.A. - Elections **
- Making assumptions about the outcome of the election is in the realm of 'fools rush in, where angels fear to tread'. But in technical/procedural terms, there are a number of simple points that are worth bearing in mind. a) The states, where polls close relatively early (before 20.00 EST / 01.00 GMT) and are declared early (Indiana, Kentucky) typically tend to favour the Republican candidate; the key battleground of Florida, may well not declare until late Wednesday, if recent elections are any guide. b) Key battleground states of North Carolina and New Hampshire will likely declare a result relatively early, and along with Pennsylvania will offer some strong hints on the final outcome; c) the other key battleground states are: Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa, Utah & Virginia; d) in 2008 and 2012, McCain and Romney conceded defeat soon after Midnight EST (05.00 GMT). In terms of Congress, there are 34 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives, there also 12 state governorships up from grabs. In market reaction terms, yesterday's 'risk asset' rally underlines that markets are pricing in a Clinton win, and are not well positioned for a Trump victory, which a rare lead for Clinton in the Rasmussen poll offer some justification for, but the Brexit experience highlights the potential dangers of as such a skew to expectations. With margin requirements in FX and derivative products having been hiked sharply, understandably, and the likelihood that intermediaries will be very unwilling to take on any significant risk positions, and this per se leaves gap risks at very elevated levels.
from Marc Ostwald
China Trade, UK BRC Sales, German / French Trade, German Ind Production
ahead of UK Production; Dutch 10-yr, German I-L 10-yr, new UK 2037
and US 3-yr on tap, more corporate earnings; OPEC Oil Outlook
- China Trade: somewhat weaker than expected, but commodity prices, CNY
fall and domestic factors advise care in interpretation
- German Trade/Production: as with orders, serving to temper upbeat message
from surveys
- UK Industrial Production: manufacturing expected to see further gain as
Q2 distortions unwind
- US election: markets very clearly priced for Clinton win, implying
sizeable gap risk in case of Trump victory; watch New Hampshire and
North Carolina for early signals
- Charts: China vs HK FX Reserves, WTI Oil, VIX & MOVE volatility indices
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the focus for today and tomorrow is 100% on the outcome of the US elections, today's schedule is replete with key economic releases from the overnight China Trade and UK BRC Retail Sales through a run of Industrial Production and/or Trade data from Germany, France and the UK, the latter also sees the latest NIESR GDP estimate, while the US has NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. As oil prices attempt to find some sort of a near-term base, amid well justified scepticism about the deal to cap, let alone cut prodcution, today's OPEC annual World Oil Market Outlook will garner a lot of interest. However, it will be rather one dimensional, in other words focus on the supply/demand outlook, but will be short on details on a) how the Paris Climate Agreement will purposefully strand a large amount of hydrocarbon assets, probably sooner rather than later, thanks to quantum leap advances in technology, and b) how much damage will be inflicted on the budgets, social and infrastructure spending, and political 'stability' of many oil producing countries. The week's relatively busy schedule of govt bond auctions also gets under way with sales of 10-yr Netherlands DSL, 10-yr German Inflation-linked Bund, the launch of a new 2037 UK conventional Gilt, as the US kicks off its quarterly refunding with $24 Bln of 3-yr Treasury Notes; the BoE also conducts its over 15-yr buy back, which will be slightly larger at £1.052 Bln, in order to make up for the shortfall at the August 9 operation. Some Fed speak from non-voter Evans, an EU EcoFin meeting and more corporate earnings round off proceedings.
** China - October Trade Balance **
- At the margin, these were slightly disappointing data with exports and imports falling a little more than expected, though less than in September. Commodity imports and exports look to have been the swing factor, thougrh some care is needed in interpretation terms. For example, the fall in Iron Ore Imports looks to be a case of destocking at ports after a rapid accumulation in recent months, while the soft steel exports are probably due to a combination of rising domestic infrastucture output absorbing a higher proportion of output, with sluggish external demand continuing to act as a drag. That said, the German Steel Industry association sounded a cautiously upbeat tone yesterday, primarily on export prospects, given that the construction boom is underpinning export demand. Eminently the weakening of the CNY will also have had some impact on imports, the more so given the rise in many commodity prices, which the prior jump in import volumes may have been attempt to offset expectations of rising prices and any further weakening of the CNY. In passing, it is also worth noting that there was a particularly sharp divergence in yesterday's mainland ($-45.7 Bln) and Hong Kong FX ($+20.6 Bln) reserves, which is perhaps a reflection of attempts to offset Eurodollar shortages.
** Europe - Sept Industrial Production / Trade Balance **
- While German Exports (-0.7% m/m vs. rev. Aug +3.4% m/m) and Imports (-0.5% m/m vs. rev. Aug 1.9%), Industrial Production at -1.*% m/m +1.2% y/y vs. ann upwardly revised Aug 3.0% m/m 2.4% y/y were disappointing, given that Manufacturing Output also fell 1.7% m/m and leaves Q3 Industrial Production up just 0.3%, therefore contributing only marginally to Q3 GDP (due November 15). Official UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output have done their best to defy an analysis of underlying trends since the Easter timing related April surge, and the ensuing three months of 'reactive correction' declines, with post maintenance resumptions in the energy sector further complicating the picture. Be that as it may, the consensus looks for a flat m/m headline reading and a 0.4% m/m rise in Manufacturing Output, which looks to be predicated on the upturn in the sector PMI, and an extrapolation from the preliminary Q3 GDP data. However with politics (domestic and international) being the dominant influence, today's report will be primarily of interest in terms of potential Q3 GDP revisions, as well as this afternoon's NIESR GDP estimate.
** U.S.A. - Elections **
- Making assumptions about the outcome of the election is in the realm of 'fools rush in, where angels fear to tread'. But in technical/procedural terms, there are a number of simple points that are worth bearing in mind. a) The states, where polls close relatively early (before 20.00 EST / 01.00 GMT) and are declared early (Indiana, Kentucky) typically tend to favour the Republican candidate; the key battleground of Florida, may well not declare until late Wednesday, if recent elections are any guide. b) Key battleground states of North Carolina and New Hampshire will likely declare a result relatively early, and along with Pennsylvania will offer some strong hints on the final outcome; c) the other key battleground states are: Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa, Utah & Virginia; d) in 2008 and 2012, McCain and Romney conceded defeat soon after Midnight EST (05.00 GMT). In terms of Congress, there are 34 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives, there also 12 state governorships up from grabs. In market reaction terms, yesterday's 'risk asset' rally underlines that markets are pricing in a Clinton win, and are not well positioned for a Trump victory, which a rare lead for Clinton in the Rasmussen poll offer some justification for, but the Brexit experience highlights the potential dangers of as such a skew to expectations. With margin requirements in FX and derivative products having been hiked sharply, understandably, and the likelihood that intermediaries will be very unwilling to take on any significant risk positions, and this per se leaves gap risks at very elevated levels.
from Marc Ostwald
I tend to keep my head down in times like this... TA is blown out the window.
I'll put a few outlier orders in at price extremes... as we will probably have mega spikes whoever wins US election... but looking to catch shorts after result.
I think ftse will trade in narrow range today... sp 6800 rez 6820-30.
Don't think anyone is going to stick their neck out after brexit lol
Dentalfloss
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slightly different with p/f...we are always in...whether it be short or long
so...just another day of taking p/f signals for us...nowt else
Dentalfloss
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rez area worked nicely today
excellent
Dentalfloss
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dax and ftse rez worked well
Dentalfloss
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bounce from 18200..our marked supp area
