Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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and out on dax .ftse and dow
6930 supp area ..as we marked ..held
10500 marked on dax
18072 area on dow
6930 supp area ..as we marked ..held
10500 marked on dax
18072 area on dow
Dentalfloss
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bull flags can fail..lets see
Dentalfloss
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ftse...p/b time
lets see if bulls want to t ake it
lets see if bulls want to t ake it
Dentalfloss
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FTSE in the dog zone
Dentalfloss
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ftse...there are a ton of areas where it might pullback to..
could even give a bear trap
could even give a bear trap
Dentalfloss
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could even be another dead cat bounce
Dentalfloss
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- UK and US inflation data dominate otherwise modest schedule of economic
statistics, US NAHB and UK House Prices also due,; ECB bank lending
survey, Schaeuble speech on future of EU, and further raft of
US corporate earnings
- UK CPI/RPI: petrol price rise seen partially offset by lower food prices,
airfares the wildcard, base effects to push up y/y rates; GBP fall to
impact PPI Input in October
- US CPI: creeping upward pressure again expected to be evident aided by
gasoline prices; focus on services, OER and medical care pressures
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Inflation data from the UK and USA dominates the day's agenda, with UK ONS House Prices and the US NAHB Housing Market Index as the accompaniment in statistical terms. Corporate earnings are plentiful, with financials still very much in focus in the US (GS, Blackrock feature), but also featuring some real economy behemoths, such as Johnson & Johnson. On the policy side of the equation, the latest ECB bank lending survey is unlikely to be a major market mover, by contrast Herr Schaeuble's speech on the future of the EU will be closely monitored, both in Brexit related terms, but also in regards to broader Budget, defence and the very thorny refugee issues. The long process of bringing the jumbo USD issuance for Saudi Arabia would appear to be drawing to a conclusion, with anecdotal evidence suggesting very hefty demand, and by extension tight pricing and with total volume likely to be at the top end of estimates.
** U.K. - September CPI, RPI, PPI **
- CPI and RPI are both forecast to rise by just 0.1% on the month, but this would see base effects push up y/y rates to 0.9% from 0.6% and 2.0% from 1.8% respectively, with PPI Output seen up 0.2% m/m for 1.1% y/y vs. Aug 0.8%. However pipeline pressures as evidenced by PPI Input are expected to remain elevated at 0.4% for a slightly lower 7.4% y/y vs. August 7.6%, but this will not capture the latest fall in the GBP, which should start to show through in the October PPI data. On CPI and RPI, while petrol prices are likely to exercise upward pressure, the evidence from the BRC Shop Price data suggest this should be largely offset by Food prices (BRC Food -0.5% m/m), while Non-Food Prices should be broadly neutral; the wildcard as ever will likely be airfares, which will see a seasonal pull-back. On the subject of the Tory party chipping away at the edifice of the Bank of England's independence, it is worth noting the article by William Hague in the Telegraph, which pulls no punches in saying central banks have lost the plot, and will have to raise rates or face the loss of their independence. While Mr Hague has certainly not been identified as a thought leader in terms of economic policy, this drip feed of threats cannot be wholly ignored. (https://t.co/ZWvUum4qXn)
** U.S.A. - September CPI **
- US headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, which would see y/y rate up to a two year high of 1.5% from August's 1.1%, while CPI ex-Food & Energy is as ever forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, leaving the y/y rate steady at 2.3% y/y. While energy price base effects will account for some of the rise at the headline level, it will be recalled that the 0.3% m/m 2.3% y/y rsie in August was paced by "sticky" rises in OER (Owners' Equivalent Rent) at 0.3% m/m 3.3% y/y, Medical Care 1.0% m/m 4.9% y/y, and the broader Services category 0.3% m/m 3.0% y/y - all of which will require careful monitoring in coming months. Yesterday's speech and comments by vice chair Fischer once again emphasized that the rate trajectory will be extraordinarily low, and that the Fed would find itself in a very tight spot in responding to any economic weakness, while also reiterating that it was very close to reaching its inflation and unemployment targets. (see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20161017a.htm)
from Marc Ostwald
statistics, US NAHB and UK House Prices also due,; ECB bank lending
survey, Schaeuble speech on future of EU, and further raft of
US corporate earnings
- UK CPI/RPI: petrol price rise seen partially offset by lower food prices,
airfares the wildcard, base effects to push up y/y rates; GBP fall to
impact PPI Input in October
- US CPI: creeping upward pressure again expected to be evident aided by
gasoline prices; focus on services, OER and medical care pressures
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Inflation data from the UK and USA dominates the day's agenda, with UK ONS House Prices and the US NAHB Housing Market Index as the accompaniment in statistical terms. Corporate earnings are plentiful, with financials still very much in focus in the US (GS, Blackrock feature), but also featuring some real economy behemoths, such as Johnson & Johnson. On the policy side of the equation, the latest ECB bank lending survey is unlikely to be a major market mover, by contrast Herr Schaeuble's speech on the future of the EU will be closely monitored, both in Brexit related terms, but also in regards to broader Budget, defence and the very thorny refugee issues. The long process of bringing the jumbo USD issuance for Saudi Arabia would appear to be drawing to a conclusion, with anecdotal evidence suggesting very hefty demand, and by extension tight pricing and with total volume likely to be at the top end of estimates.
** U.K. - September CPI, RPI, PPI **
- CPI and RPI are both forecast to rise by just 0.1% on the month, but this would see base effects push up y/y rates to 0.9% from 0.6% and 2.0% from 1.8% respectively, with PPI Output seen up 0.2% m/m for 1.1% y/y vs. Aug 0.8%. However pipeline pressures as evidenced by PPI Input are expected to remain elevated at 0.4% for a slightly lower 7.4% y/y vs. August 7.6%, but this will not capture the latest fall in the GBP, which should start to show through in the October PPI data. On CPI and RPI, while petrol prices are likely to exercise upward pressure, the evidence from the BRC Shop Price data suggest this should be largely offset by Food prices (BRC Food -0.5% m/m), while Non-Food Prices should be broadly neutral; the wildcard as ever will likely be airfares, which will see a seasonal pull-back. On the subject of the Tory party chipping away at the edifice of the Bank of England's independence, it is worth noting the article by William Hague in the Telegraph, which pulls no punches in saying central banks have lost the plot, and will have to raise rates or face the loss of their independence. While Mr Hague has certainly not been identified as a thought leader in terms of economic policy, this drip feed of threats cannot be wholly ignored. (https://t.co/ZWvUum4qXn)
** U.S.A. - September CPI **
- US headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, which would see y/y rate up to a two year high of 1.5% from August's 1.1%, while CPI ex-Food & Energy is as ever forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, leaving the y/y rate steady at 2.3% y/y. While energy price base effects will account for some of the rise at the headline level, it will be recalled that the 0.3% m/m 2.3% y/y rsie in August was paced by "sticky" rises in OER (Owners' Equivalent Rent) at 0.3% m/m 3.3% y/y, Medical Care 1.0% m/m 4.9% y/y, and the broader Services category 0.3% m/m 3.0% y/y - all of which will require careful monitoring in coming months. Yesterday's speech and comments by vice chair Fischer once again emphasized that the rate trajectory will be extraordinarily low, and that the Fed would find itself in a very tight spot in responding to any economic weakness, while also reiterating that it was very close to reaching its inflation and unemployment targets. (see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20161017a.htm)
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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ftse..bought the dip to 7k..tight stop
nearly a 100 point run from last night...excellent
nearly a 100 point run from last night...excellent
Dentalfloss
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stop very tight now
Dentalfloss
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out..for a few
Dentalfloss
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looks like 7040 on the way..
Dentalfloss
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7020-7030..excellent call..thnks
Dentalfloss
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index pump again..as per bull flag
excellent
excellent
Dentalfloss
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stopped out on all 3
excellent run
excellent run
Dentalfloss
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oil aswell...overnight run
Dentalfloss
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maybe
but...we got a 100 point run since last night
Dentalfloss
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scalp short from swissy rez
Dentalfloss
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time for a long lunch......treating myeself for spotting that bull flag yeterday
Italian or french restaurant....big decision
Italian or french restaurant....big decision
