Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

spx in a pivot area 2120-2128 AREA/aqua

one year of data

 

[Dentalfloss]

Poor China trade figures
Lack of direction from fed minutes
Big increase in stored oil

Vix slowly rising, might be a good time for a swing short

thanks...
swing short..not yet..that pivot on spx looks to be strong supp area
should bounce off that
swing short should be from the bounce...when all bullish momentum dumped
ie at the highest point in the bounce

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx.dax and ftse in big supp areas
49.20-49.60 biggish supp on oil

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil

 

[Dentalfloss]

2120 holding..fakes below that
then the bounce

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse in a pivot area..a big one

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse pivot

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse 7k rez on bounce
7050..big rez on bounce
6988 rez..poss supp..then 7k
add 7022 pivot

 

[swissy]

Poor China trade figures
Lack of direction from fed minutes
Big increase in stored oil

Vix slowly rising, might be a good time for a swing short

Agreed. Resource stocks down on ASX - will filter through to ftse 100 (BHP, Rio etc).
Housing/debt concerns.
Brexit - Price gouging: unilever/Tesco standoff
Sentiment down - worry on.

 

[swissy]

ftse think we will find sp 6950-60 for starters. Currently holding 6970 but no evidence of bulls......yet.

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse think we will find sp 6950-60 for starters. Currently holding 6970 but no evidence of bulls......yet.

needs test and retest

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax
not quite into that pivot area
10327-10350 area
10400 rez
then 10419-10442
10465
big rez at 10500
swing short...get in as near as 10500....if it gets there

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Digesting disappointing China Trade data, mixed UK RICS House Prices,
FOMC minutes, steady Bank of Korea; awaiting US Import Prices, Jobless
Claims, India CPI; Italy, Ireland & US bond sales; US Corporate Earnings

- US Import Prices: energy imparts some upside risks relative to forecasts

- China Trade: exports clearly disappointing, imports mixed, with
Electricity Consumption suggesting domestic demand better than
imports imply

- CNY FX: this is no stealth devaluation, but rather USD strength

- FOMC minutes: mentions of credibility the most notable feature of
minutes that underline deep-seated divisions of opinion

- Charts: CNY CFETS index, EUR/CNY, JPY/CNY and GBP/CNY


..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A modestly weightier calendar of data awaits, while the policy side of the schedule looks to be rather light, though perhaps compensated for by a gaggle of US corporate earnings reports; current market sentiment nevertheless looks rather October-ish, i.e. unsettled. Per se the day's scheduled events may not be the primary mover, barring some large surprises. There are the overnight China Trade, UK RICS House Price Balance and unchanged Bank of Korea rate decision to digest, with US weekly Jobless Claims & Import Prices and Indian CPI ahead, accompanied by a speech by the modestly hawkish Harker, and bond auctions in Italy, Ireland and the US. US jobless claims are seen at 253K, thus remaining close to their 43-yr low, while energy prices impart some upside risks to an expected 0.1% m/m -1.1% y/y Import Price reading.

The FOMC minutes primarily underlined that the divide on the committee is between those that are so terrified of upsetting the financial market apple cart and/or even a marginal loss of economic momentum that CPI has to overshoot, and labour demand has to be red hot for them to be anything less than ultra-accommodative. On the other side are those that fear the Fed's incessant dithering has already severely undermined their credibility, and that they are fostering considerable financial instability, and that they need to act, above all to show that they can, and to underline that current economic performance does not justify extreme levels of policy accommodation. A December rate hike still looks highly likely, but the 'back and switch' majority could yet stymie it. The sourced stories on the ECB and the BoJ policy outlook underline that while they both retain an easing bias, they are in no hurry to enact any further policy measures, in no small part so as to avoid fostering the impression that the inefficacy of their policy measures to date is primarily an exercise in tilting at windmills.

The China Trade data were clearly disappointing, above all in terms of the much sharper than expected slide in exports, with the slip in imports requiring closer inspection, before jumping to conclusions on domestic demand. The latter above all in respect of the very divergent profile of commodity imports, with weakness in copper imports, more than offset by surging coal, iron ore, and soy imports. Indeed perhaps the most notable item was the pick-up in electricity consumption at 6.9% y/y for September, which implies a solid pace of domestic expansion. That said, the weakness of exports mirrors similar weakness from major Asian exporting countries, and will only add to the impression that the PBOC will look to let the CNY slip further against the USD. However it would be hasty to call this depreciation, given that the PBOC is targeting the CNY against its CFETS currency basket, against which it has marginally appreciated over the past week, but been broadly stable over the past six weeks. Per se, this is not CNY weakness, but USD strength, as the charts of EUR/CNY, JPY/CNY and GBP/CNN attached highlight, the CNY has appreciated against the other major currencies.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse on a poss fake bounce/1 min candle

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax has a prev breakout at 10314-10332
could be supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse on a poss fake bounce/1 min candle

yes sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil
49.00-49.20 pivot area marked

 

[Dentalfloss]

we had 6988 area marked as supp/rez
been a good pivot so far this morning

 

[Dentalfloss]

somehow...feel...we are not quite at the bottom
lets see