Dentalfloss
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Support came in...missed it
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Support came in...missed it
007 I tried @6862 but got stopped out... also missed the dump my short got stopped out 2 points short @6930....but that's trading for you!! I'll have a nice malt to compensate..lol
I can't be at the screen all the time!! Lets see what tomorrow brings.
You made some good calls!! Hope you got your pips! and thanks for the ftse inputs.
Dentalfloss
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fears over Deutsche bank caused the sell off
see above article from Kathy Lien
see above article from Kathy Lien
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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09.29.2016
www.bkassetmanagement.com
Deutsche Bank Crashes but EURO Does Not, Here's Why
Daily FX Market Roundup 09.29.16
By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management
The biggest story in the financial markets today is Deutsche Bank and the growing fear that they will become the next Lehman Brothers. In the last 24 hours shares of DB has fallen more than 7% intraday, the Dow dropped nearly 1% and currencies are falling out of bed. Risk aversion permeated the market on reports that the bank's hedge fund clients are withdrawing excess cash, lowering collateral on trades and generally reducing their exposure to the bank. DB has been plagued with troubles for the past few weeks but as the company's stock extended its slide, the tension turned into greater risk aversion.
Interestingly enough EURO was not the hardest hit currency. In fact it ended the day unchanged against the greenback with its losses paling in comparison to the slide in AUD/USD, USD/CHF and even GBP/USD. If this were truly a Lehman moment for Europe, EUR/USD would be trading much lower. We see only two explanations for the currency's resilience - German yields are up and U.S. yields are falling or the majority of investors still believe that Deutsche Bank is too big to fail. CEO Cryan argues that the company has tremendous liquidity reserves and raised another $1 billion euros from its sale of Abby Life. But the problem is that they could owe up to $14 billion to the U.S. Department of Justice who is charging the company for legal costs and settlements related to their investigation into the bank's mortgage backed securities. Investors fear that this expense would cripple the bank financially. At first there was hope that the German government would provide a bailout but they denied claims that they are preparing a bail out while CEO Cryan said its not an option. In response institutional and retail investors pulled their funds putting the bank into a greater cash crunch. Deutsche Bank's fate has significant ramifications for global markets because they have deep connections with financial institutions around the world and many companies will be affected by their insolvency.
The big question now is how DB will raise capital and currently their main focus is selling off profitable businesses. Unfortunately the only way to stop this crisis of confidence is for Chancellor Merkel to offer a bailout. The problem is that its politically unpopular and next year is an election year. Merkel has been a vocal opponent to putting taxpayers on the hook for bank bailouts but at some point, the economic consequences could outweigh the political fallout. The only "other way" we see the DB crisis settling is if the bank manages to substantially negotiate down the DoJ's fine. Of course they'll probably have to cut bonuses as well since that could easily save them 1 or 2 billion euros but the first two options would do a better job reversing market sentiment. Deutsche Bank's troubles have also raised concerns about other banks in Europe - Credit Suisse and Barclays are also in mortgage settlement talks with the U.S. government.
The bottomline is that Europe's banking crisis has returned and it poses a major risk not only to U.S. equities but also currencies. We can't see EUR/USD holding 1.12 in light of these troubles but more importantly, central banks who have been looking to ease could look at this unsettling development as a reason to step up easing or slow tightening. In other words if Europe's troubles escalate, causing U.S. stocks to crash, the Federal Reserve will be less likely to raise interest rates in December even if job growth improves. The Bank of England will increase stimulus and step up its calls to do so if the focus turns to Barclays. Either way, euro and sterling should be negatively affected by Europe's banking crisis.
USD/JPY hit a high of 101.84 today on the back of stronger U.S. data before dropping to 101 on the Deutsche Bank news. Second quarter GDP growth was revised higher, jobless claims rose less than expected and the trade deficit narrowed. Economists had been looking for softer numbers and the good news sent the dollar sharply higher. While we still like being long USD/JPY, it will be difficult for the pair to hold 101 if Europe's troubles grow. With that in mind, 100.50 or 100.10 may be better levels to come into the currency. It's the end of the month tomorrow and the month/quarter end flows could help lift USD/JPY.
from Kathy lien
www.bkassetmanagement.com
Deutsche Bank Crashes but EURO Does Not, Here's Why
Daily FX Market Roundup 09.29.16
By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management
The biggest story in the financial markets today is Deutsche Bank and the growing fear that they will become the next Lehman Brothers. In the last 24 hours shares of DB has fallen more than 7% intraday, the Dow dropped nearly 1% and currencies are falling out of bed. Risk aversion permeated the market on reports that the bank's hedge fund clients are withdrawing excess cash, lowering collateral on trades and generally reducing their exposure to the bank. DB has been plagued with troubles for the past few weeks but as the company's stock extended its slide, the tension turned into greater risk aversion.
Interestingly enough EURO was not the hardest hit currency. In fact it ended the day unchanged against the greenback with its losses paling in comparison to the slide in AUD/USD, USD/CHF and even GBP/USD. If this were truly a Lehman moment for Europe, EUR/USD would be trading much lower. We see only two explanations for the currency's resilience - German yields are up and U.S. yields are falling or the majority of investors still believe that Deutsche Bank is too big to fail. CEO Cryan argues that the company has tremendous liquidity reserves and raised another $1 billion euros from its sale of Abby Life. But the problem is that they could owe up to $14 billion to the U.S. Department of Justice who is charging the company for legal costs and settlements related to their investigation into the bank's mortgage backed securities. Investors fear that this expense would cripple the bank financially. At first there was hope that the German government would provide a bailout but they denied claims that they are preparing a bail out while CEO Cryan said its not an option. In response institutional and retail investors pulled their funds putting the bank into a greater cash crunch. Deutsche Bank's fate has significant ramifications for global markets because they have deep connections with financial institutions around the world and many companies will be affected by their insolvency.
The big question now is how DB will raise capital and currently their main focus is selling off profitable businesses. Unfortunately the only way to stop this crisis of confidence is for Chancellor Merkel to offer a bailout. The problem is that its politically unpopular and next year is an election year. Merkel has been a vocal opponent to putting taxpayers on the hook for bank bailouts but at some point, the economic consequences could outweigh the political fallout. The only "other way" we see the DB crisis settling is if the bank manages to substantially negotiate down the DoJ's fine. Of course they'll probably have to cut bonuses as well since that could easily save them 1 or 2 billion euros but the first two options would do a better job reversing market sentiment. Deutsche Bank's troubles have also raised concerns about other banks in Europe - Credit Suisse and Barclays are also in mortgage settlement talks with the U.S. government.
The bottomline is that Europe's banking crisis has returned and it poses a major risk not only to U.S. equities but also currencies. We can't see EUR/USD holding 1.12 in light of these troubles but more importantly, central banks who have been looking to ease could look at this unsettling development as a reason to step up easing or slow tightening. In other words if Europe's troubles escalate, causing U.S. stocks to crash, the Federal Reserve will be less likely to raise interest rates in December even if job growth improves. The Bank of England will increase stimulus and step up its calls to do so if the focus turns to Barclays. Either way, euro and sterling should be negatively affected by Europe's banking crisis.
USD/JPY hit a high of 101.84 today on the back of stronger U.S. data before dropping to 101 on the Deutsche Bank news. Second quarter GDP growth was revised higher, jobless claims rose less than expected and the trade deficit narrowed. Economists had been looking for softer numbers and the good news sent the dollar sharply higher. While we still like being long USD/JPY, it will be difficult for the pair to hold 101 if Europe's troubles grow. With that in mind, 100.50 or 100.10 may be better levels to come into the currency. It's the end of the month tomorrow and the month/quarter end flows could help lift USD/JPY.
from Kathy lien
Atilla
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There is something very stinky about the yanks attacks on DB and stupendous fines.
DB has publicly said they have no intentions of paying such a ridiculous fine. There is some acquisition moves in the background going on too with that Bob Diamond plonker who almost effed up Barclays. Mr Failure is trying to raise finance to buy out troubled EU banks on the cheap too. Wondering if some of these dots are joined up by hand???
Similarly, there is more than meets the eye with the EU placing a fine on Apple's profits located in Ireland. Then there is the TTIP US trying to push through which the UK government seems to think is a good idea. Then there is Brexit. Lot of poohey stuff indeed.
There is no way DB is going to the dogs. If Germany bails out Greek banks there is no way it's going to let DB go down the drains irrespective of what Merkel says.
Possible merger perhaps??? Chinese have a lot of lolly to spend.
DB has publicly said they have no intentions of paying such a ridiculous fine. There is some acquisition moves in the background going on too with that Bob Diamond plonker who almost effed up Barclays. Mr Failure is trying to raise finance to buy out troubled EU banks on the cheap too. Wondering if some of these dots are joined up by hand???
Similarly, there is more than meets the eye with the EU placing a fine on Apple's profits located in Ireland. Then there is the TTIP US trying to push through which the UK government seems to think is a good idea. Then there is Brexit. Lot of poohey stuff indeed.
There is no way DB is going to the dogs. If Germany bails out Greek banks there is no way it's going to let DB go down the drains irrespective of what Merkel says.
Possible merger perhaps??? Chinese have a lot of lolly to spend.
Very good summary if I may say so. Points to a (sharp) rebound in equity markets if soothing noises come out of Germany and Euro area.
MichaelJohnFX
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Brilliant summary Atilla
Dentalfloss
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ftse
supp area is from 6770 to 6850
uptrend from 15th September
supp area is from 6770 to 6850
uptrend from 15th September
Dentalfloss
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spx
poss fake brewing
big wodge of horizontal supp going down to 2130
2142-2148 first
2136-2142 area second
2154-2160 rez
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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- Very busy data calendar finds its highlights in overnight Japan CPI and
Industrial Production, China PMI & German Retail Sales; looking ahead to
UK Q2 Current Account & Index of Services, Eurozone CPI and US PCE and
Chicago PMI; Oil price gyrations and Deutsche woes likely the primary
point of focus; end of month/quarter likely to subdue activity
- Deutsche Bank: liquidity access the key issue; do nothing no longer an
option, even if four possible paths of action all fraught with risks
- UK Current Account: marginal deficit narrowing seen vs Q1, but seen
sharply wider vs H1 2015, not sustainable
- Eurozone CPI: modest uptick expected; German, French, Spanish readings
imply 'in line with forecasts' outturn; trend clearly higher
- US Personal Income / PCE: deflators in focus, some modest upside risks
relative to forecasts given pointers from CPI
- US Chicago PMI: seen edging up; while survey very erratic, other
regional surveys imply some upside risks
- Charts: USD and EUR 3-mth LIBOR/OIS spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Q3 comes to its conclusion with a flood of economic data, and a minimalist schedule of events that in principle amounts to digest the summary of the discussion at the September BoJ meeting, and an expected no change rate decision in Colombia. The BoJ summary offered one notable insight, namely that the 10-yr target may be changed from meeting to meeting, and targets may also be set for other parts of the curve. It is worth noting however that today's marginal Y20 Bln reduction in the BoJ's buying operation prompted a sell-off in JGBs, which underlines that markets primarily still only care about the flow of QE. While the statistical schedule is jam packed, quarter end and the weekend may well rein in any appetite for putting on fresh positions. On the "to digest" list are Japanese CPI, and Korean and Japanese Industrial Production, along with UK GfK Consumer Confidence and the erratic and rather useless German Retail Sales report. Ahead lie the final reading on UK Q2 GDP, accompanied by the Index of Services and Q2 Current Account; Eurozone CPI, Canada monthly GDP, and US Personal Income / PCE and the Chicago PMI. Oil prices will be carefully watched after yesterday's upside break prompted a short squeeze, which is far more a reflection of a typical short squeeze exacerbated by the stop hunting community, than any genuine 'view' on where prices are headed post OPEC 'agreement'. The Deutsche Bank, and broader European banking concerns will also remain 'front and central' to proceedings, though the specific comparisons to Lehman look to be off target, in so far as Deutsche is a huge deposit taker (close to €600 Bln), is very clearly too big to fail, and has access to all the ECB funding facilities that have been established since the GFC. But as with Lehman, the key issue is far less its under-capitalization or solvency, and rather more the potential loss of access to liquidity. Doing nothing is eminently no longer an option, and per se it needs to consider one or more of the following difficult options: a) raise equity other via a rights issue or converting CoCos, b) go with a begging bowl to the ECB, an option that remains heavily stigmatized, c) opt for a bail-in, or d) seek a government bail-out. Be that as it may, it does underline what a spectacular failure the post GFC efforts to clean up the banking sector, and force balance reconciliation in Europe's case, has been on the part of all involved actors. Markets will continue to keep on pushing on its equity price and CoCos, and keep an eye on money market stress indicators, which in this case means both EUR and USD LIBOR/OIS spreads, given the size of Deutsche's US operations (and its derivatives book), amongst others. As the charts attached highlight, there are no signs of any stress in EUR terms, the question then is whether one can continue to dismiss the USD LOIS spread widening as just being due to money market fund reforms, or if it partially reflects Deutsche's woes.
** Eurozone - September CPI **
- Thanks to the vagaries of the different calculation methodologies for national CPI and HICP, yesterday's German CPI does not impart any obvious upside risks for today's Eurozone reading. But, as with the German and Spanish readings, the unwinding of energy base effects will be a factor in the expected uptick to 0.4% y/y from 0.2%, while core CPI is seen ticking up to 0.9% y/y from 0.8%. While energy will be a key factor going forward, it should also be noted that Food prices have been edging higher, last 1.3% y/y vs. 0.8%/0.9% in Q2, and any modest upward pressures would also accelerate the unwind, even if subdued Services prices (last 1.1% y/y) continue to offer an offset.
** U.K. - Q2 GDP, Current Account, July Index of Services **
- The Q2 GDP is now very historical and very much pre-Brexit, per se the expected confirmation at 0.6% q/q is rather moot. However the Q2 Current Account is forecast to remain very ugly at a marginally narrower £-30.6 Bln, which would if Q1 is unrevised, put the H12016 deficit at £-63.2 Bln, compared with H1 2015 at £-44.4 Bln, in other words 42.3% wider than H1 2015 and 62.4% wider than H1 2014. Such a trend is clearly unsustainable in the long run. As for the Index of Services, this is seen eking out a 0.1% m/m gain after 0.2% m/m in June.
** U.S.A. - August PCE/Personal Income; September Chicago PMI **
- Forecasts for PCE and Personal Income of 0.1% and 0.2% m/m respectively are predicated on the lacklustre Retail Sales and modest rise in Average Hourly Earnings, and would more than likely require an atypically large miss to attract more than passing interest. The PCE Deflators are both seen up 0.2% m/m, which would edge up y/y rates by 0.1 ppt to 0.9% and 1.7% respectively, with a chance that the observed pressures in housing and healthcare seen in CPI impart an upside risk to both measures, even if the latter's flat m/m readings for food and energy should act as a restraint. The Chicago PMI is forecast to edge higher to 52.0 from August's 51.5. While this survey has a long history of erratic readings, which are way off consensus, the more important aspect will be whether it mirrors most other regional surveys in suggesting a notable pick-up in sector activity in September.
from Marc Ostwald
Industrial Production, China PMI & German Retail Sales; looking ahead to
UK Q2 Current Account & Index of Services, Eurozone CPI and US PCE and
Chicago PMI; Oil price gyrations and Deutsche woes likely the primary
point of focus; end of month/quarter likely to subdue activity
- Deutsche Bank: liquidity access the key issue; do nothing no longer an
option, even if four possible paths of action all fraught with risks
- UK Current Account: marginal deficit narrowing seen vs Q1, but seen
sharply wider vs H1 2015, not sustainable
- Eurozone CPI: modest uptick expected; German, French, Spanish readings
imply 'in line with forecasts' outturn; trend clearly higher
- US Personal Income / PCE: deflators in focus, some modest upside risks
relative to forecasts given pointers from CPI
- US Chicago PMI: seen edging up; while survey very erratic, other
regional surveys imply some upside risks
- Charts: USD and EUR 3-mth LIBOR/OIS spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Q3 comes to its conclusion with a flood of economic data, and a minimalist schedule of events that in principle amounts to digest the summary of the discussion at the September BoJ meeting, and an expected no change rate decision in Colombia. The BoJ summary offered one notable insight, namely that the 10-yr target may be changed from meeting to meeting, and targets may also be set for other parts of the curve. It is worth noting however that today's marginal Y20 Bln reduction in the BoJ's buying operation prompted a sell-off in JGBs, which underlines that markets primarily still only care about the flow of QE. While the statistical schedule is jam packed, quarter end and the weekend may well rein in any appetite for putting on fresh positions. On the "to digest" list are Japanese CPI, and Korean and Japanese Industrial Production, along with UK GfK Consumer Confidence and the erratic and rather useless German Retail Sales report. Ahead lie the final reading on UK Q2 GDP, accompanied by the Index of Services and Q2 Current Account; Eurozone CPI, Canada monthly GDP, and US Personal Income / PCE and the Chicago PMI. Oil prices will be carefully watched after yesterday's upside break prompted a short squeeze, which is far more a reflection of a typical short squeeze exacerbated by the stop hunting community, than any genuine 'view' on where prices are headed post OPEC 'agreement'. The Deutsche Bank, and broader European banking concerns will also remain 'front and central' to proceedings, though the specific comparisons to Lehman look to be off target, in so far as Deutsche is a huge deposit taker (close to €600 Bln), is very clearly too big to fail, and has access to all the ECB funding facilities that have been established since the GFC. But as with Lehman, the key issue is far less its under-capitalization or solvency, and rather more the potential loss of access to liquidity. Doing nothing is eminently no longer an option, and per se it needs to consider one or more of the following difficult options: a) raise equity other via a rights issue or converting CoCos, b) go with a begging bowl to the ECB, an option that remains heavily stigmatized, c) opt for a bail-in, or d) seek a government bail-out. Be that as it may, it does underline what a spectacular failure the post GFC efforts to clean up the banking sector, and force balance reconciliation in Europe's case, has been on the part of all involved actors. Markets will continue to keep on pushing on its equity price and CoCos, and keep an eye on money market stress indicators, which in this case means both EUR and USD LIBOR/OIS spreads, given the size of Deutsche's US operations (and its derivatives book), amongst others. As the charts attached highlight, there are no signs of any stress in EUR terms, the question then is whether one can continue to dismiss the USD LOIS spread widening as just being due to money market fund reforms, or if it partially reflects Deutsche's woes.
** Eurozone - September CPI **
- Thanks to the vagaries of the different calculation methodologies for national CPI and HICP, yesterday's German CPI does not impart any obvious upside risks for today's Eurozone reading. But, as with the German and Spanish readings, the unwinding of energy base effects will be a factor in the expected uptick to 0.4% y/y from 0.2%, while core CPI is seen ticking up to 0.9% y/y from 0.8%. While energy will be a key factor going forward, it should also be noted that Food prices have been edging higher, last 1.3% y/y vs. 0.8%/0.9% in Q2, and any modest upward pressures would also accelerate the unwind, even if subdued Services prices (last 1.1% y/y) continue to offer an offset.
** U.K. - Q2 GDP, Current Account, July Index of Services **
- The Q2 GDP is now very historical and very much pre-Brexit, per se the expected confirmation at 0.6% q/q is rather moot. However the Q2 Current Account is forecast to remain very ugly at a marginally narrower £-30.6 Bln, which would if Q1 is unrevised, put the H12016 deficit at £-63.2 Bln, compared with H1 2015 at £-44.4 Bln, in other words 42.3% wider than H1 2015 and 62.4% wider than H1 2014. Such a trend is clearly unsustainable in the long run. As for the Index of Services, this is seen eking out a 0.1% m/m gain after 0.2% m/m in June.
** U.S.A. - August PCE/Personal Income; September Chicago PMI **
- Forecasts for PCE and Personal Income of 0.1% and 0.2% m/m respectively are predicated on the lacklustre Retail Sales and modest rise in Average Hourly Earnings, and would more than likely require an atypically large miss to attract more than passing interest. The PCE Deflators are both seen up 0.2% m/m, which would edge up y/y rates by 0.1 ppt to 0.9% and 1.7% respectively, with a chance that the observed pressures in housing and healthcare seen in CPI impart an upside risk to both measures, even if the latter's flat m/m readings for food and energy should act as a restraint. The Chicago PMI is forecast to edge higher to 52.0 from August's 51.5. While this survey has a long history of erratic readings, which are way off consensus, the more important aspect will be whether it mirrors most other regional surveys in suggesting a notable pick-up in sector activity in September.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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ftse
Dentalfloss
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dax since 27 June
a heck of alot of rubbish removed
a heck of alot of rubbish removed
Last edited:
MichaelJohnFX
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Same kind of fake brewing on Dax as well. I have 10169-10124.
Dentalfloss
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poss target for one box horixzontal count/lilac...10049-10089 area
poss another 100 point drop...needed
poss another 100 point drop...needed
Dentalfloss
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spx possibly turning very nasty
poss downside count of 2128-2130 area
Dentalfloss
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spx
poss fake brewing
big wodge of horizontal supp going down to 2130
2142-2148 first
2136-2142 area second
2154-2160 rez
that is a wide supp area...if it breaks....bears really have some power...aqua horizontal
seems to me to be more bearish than bull
we might not get a fake...just straight dump
dump...watch the recoill...2150 psycho...might fake above 2150...bull trap
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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thinking...thats it more about rez...than support
who knows...lol
who knows...lol
Dentalfloss
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6850-6860 first rez
then 6861-6885 area
24 hours of data
then 6861-6885 area
24 hours of data
Dentalfloss
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6864-6870 seems to be a real sweetie
could be wrong
could be wrong
