Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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shorts in from those areas
Closed out @6823. No complaints, good run.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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ftse
Dentalfloss
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ftse...all depends if that horizontal supp holds/aqua horizontal
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zip..straight into our 6840-6848 rez
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6860 area could be a dog
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ftse
a closer look
a closer look
Dentalfloss
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as we said yesterday lunchtime...a swing long was brewing in the indices
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almost 100 point move on ftse since 2.30pm yesterday
ditto dax...200 points
ditto dax...200 points
Dentalfloss
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dax in rez
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- A further deluge of central bank speakers, including Yellen on regulation
and Draghi "facing the music" in German Bundestag; Europe surveys and
US Durable Goods top data schedule; US & Germany to auction debt; Oil
and bank woes the overarching themes as quarter end approaches
- US Durable Goods Orders: transport led reactive correction to July jump
expected, core measures seen weak on ISM slide - plenty of scope for
an outlier
- Markets caught between TINA pressures and the ever toxic combination of
bank and oil/resource concerns
- Charts: USD OIS/LIBOR spread, June 2017/June 2019 Euribor futures spread,
Deutsche Bank EUR 6.0% Coco
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After something of a lull yesterday, central bank speakers return with a vengeance today to dominate the schedule, while US Durable Goods Orders top the data run, and are accompanied by various European & Asian surveys (the latter being generally rather better than expected). Oil price gyrations as the IEF forum concludes with no agreement, but a much higher probability of an agreement in November, along with the woes of Eurozone banks will continue to provide the overarching themes, as will end quarter portfolio adjustments and associated market illiquidity. Yet another unexpected fall in API Crude Oil (and indeed gasoline) stocks ahead of this afternoon's more closely watched EIA readings should provide some offset to the downward pressure from the IEF/OPEC 'disappointment'. On the govt bond auction front, Germany sells 2-yr and the US concludes this week's funding operation with a 2-yr FRN and 7-yr Treasury Note. The sense that markets have become very binary going into quarter end is increasingly inescapable, which sets up next week's US labour data as an accentuated event risk in a month which is often unkind to investors. On the one hand there is the TINA (There Is No Alternative) driven need to put cash to work, reaching for yield and/or duration, on the other hand there is the ghoulish spectre of concerns about banks (above Eurozone) and oil (and resources more broadly) prices that has incessantly spooked riskier assets all year. Comments from Fed's Williams overnight on Fed divisions of opinion bear close scrutiny, above all from the aspect that they infer that Yellen will be the final arbiter on a rate hike, which will certainly see a number of dissents, whereby the latter should not be construed as conveying a dovish tilt to such a move. They also underline that the argument on the committee is about the labour market, rather than inflation, even if the doves would argue that without evidence that the labour market is overheating, there will likely be little upward pressure on inflation. Yellen's testimony on financial sector regulation and supervision will likely prove to be a rather heated affair, but it is Mr Draghi's trip to the lion's den of Germany's Bundestag that may generate the most headlines and hostility, if German MPs follow Herr Schaeuble's exhortation to 'grill' him is adhered to.
** U.S.A. - August Durable Goods orders **
- The expected 1.5% m/m in headline orders looks to be predicated on a combination of the sharp fall in the Manufacturing ISM, above all the slide in its New Orders sub-index to 49.1 from 56.9 (though the PMI Orders index for the month fell only 1.5 to 52.7) and a correction to July's transport (primarily aircraft) paced surge of 4.4% m/m. Core measures are seen posting more modest falls of -0.5% m/m ex-Transport (July +1.3%) and just -0.1% for Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (July +1.5% m/m). The drag from the very volatile transport component would appear to be far from assured, while the rebound in a number of September regional Fed manufacturing indices offers reason to doubt the signals from the ISM survey.
from Marc Ostwald
and Draghi "facing the music" in German Bundestag; Europe surveys and
US Durable Goods top data schedule; US & Germany to auction debt; Oil
and bank woes the overarching themes as quarter end approaches
- US Durable Goods Orders: transport led reactive correction to July jump
expected, core measures seen weak on ISM slide - plenty of scope for
an outlier
- Markets caught between TINA pressures and the ever toxic combination of
bank and oil/resource concerns
- Charts: USD OIS/LIBOR spread, June 2017/June 2019 Euribor futures spread,
Deutsche Bank EUR 6.0% Coco
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After something of a lull yesterday, central bank speakers return with a vengeance today to dominate the schedule, while US Durable Goods Orders top the data run, and are accompanied by various European & Asian surveys (the latter being generally rather better than expected). Oil price gyrations as the IEF forum concludes with no agreement, but a much higher probability of an agreement in November, along with the woes of Eurozone banks will continue to provide the overarching themes, as will end quarter portfolio adjustments and associated market illiquidity. Yet another unexpected fall in API Crude Oil (and indeed gasoline) stocks ahead of this afternoon's more closely watched EIA readings should provide some offset to the downward pressure from the IEF/OPEC 'disappointment'. On the govt bond auction front, Germany sells 2-yr and the US concludes this week's funding operation with a 2-yr FRN and 7-yr Treasury Note. The sense that markets have become very binary going into quarter end is increasingly inescapable, which sets up next week's US labour data as an accentuated event risk in a month which is often unkind to investors. On the one hand there is the TINA (There Is No Alternative) driven need to put cash to work, reaching for yield and/or duration, on the other hand there is the ghoulish spectre of concerns about banks (above Eurozone) and oil (and resources more broadly) prices that has incessantly spooked riskier assets all year. Comments from Fed's Williams overnight on Fed divisions of opinion bear close scrutiny, above all from the aspect that they infer that Yellen will be the final arbiter on a rate hike, which will certainly see a number of dissents, whereby the latter should not be construed as conveying a dovish tilt to such a move. They also underline that the argument on the committee is about the labour market, rather than inflation, even if the doves would argue that without evidence that the labour market is overheating, there will likely be little upward pressure on inflation. Yellen's testimony on financial sector regulation and supervision will likely prove to be a rather heated affair, but it is Mr Draghi's trip to the lion's den of Germany's Bundestag that may generate the most headlines and hostility, if German MPs follow Herr Schaeuble's exhortation to 'grill' him is adhered to.
** U.S.A. - August Durable Goods orders **
- The expected 1.5% m/m in headline orders looks to be predicated on a combination of the sharp fall in the Manufacturing ISM, above all the slide in its New Orders sub-index to 49.1 from 56.9 (though the PMI Orders index for the month fell only 1.5 to 52.7) and a correction to July's transport (primarily aircraft) paced surge of 4.4% m/m. Core measures are seen posting more modest falls of -0.5% m/m ex-Transport (July +1.3%) and just -0.1% for Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (July +1.5% m/m). The drag from the very volatile transport component would appear to be far from assured, while the rebound in a number of September regional Fed manufacturing indices offers reason to doubt the signals from the ISM survey.
from Marc Ostwald
Expecting re-test maybe 6867
Dentalfloss
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dax
needs to stay above 10.4 K/breakout area
needs to stay above 10.4 K/breakout area
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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6874-6900...bigger rez
could go there
dax 10480-10500...bigger rez
could go there
dax 10480-10500...bigger rez
Dentalfloss
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above 6874...could be fake
