Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

dow needs to get into 18400...give the bulls a real test

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow gone negative today
trend supp/green in 18400
18492 rez/red
2 months of data
18446-18469 is break down area..poss rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

18400 fails then 18352-18383 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

bounce from our 18446 area/became supp ..marked earlier
excellent
stops tightened

 

[Dentalfloss]

mornin folks
weekend nearly here

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd lookin reasonably bullish,,,into rez now

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd
a closer look
if support holds..then some dollar weakness

 

[swissy]

mornin folks
weekend nearly here

G'day!

 

[Dentalfloss]

DOW into the open
rez starts at 18471/lilac trendline
need to see if those supp area holds
eurusd seems to be pricing in ..no rate rise yet in US
lets see what happens

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX .. into the open
data from 29th AUGUST
IF SUPP HOLDS THEN...UP WE GO
first supp area is 10636

 

[Dentalfloss]

first move...looks like a zip to 10681-10700
or
10600-10627 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

FTSE since 29th AUG

 

[Dentalfloss]

gbpjpy since end of August

 

[Dentalfloss]

47.60-47.84 big rez on oil
needs to stay under 48.00

 

[Dentalfloss]

first move...looks like a zip to 10681-10700
or
10600-10627 area

wham..straight into our supp area
excelent
wil it hold ??

 

[Dentalfloss]

wham..straight into our supp area
excelent
wil it hold ??

held
also our 6835 supp on ftse held
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

dow into our 18420 supp..lets see how it gets handled

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Digesting China inflation, poor German Trade, UK ICAEW Business Investment
forecasts; looking to UK Trade, Construction stats, US Wholesale Inventories
and Fed speak from Rosengren & Kaplan; oil and long gvot bond gyrations also
in the spotlight

- UK Trade Balance: marginal narrowing in deficit expected, focus on Export
and Import trends

- UK Construction Output: seen posting sixth m/m decline of 2016; Hammond
spending hints suggest some sector support going forward

- Fed speak: last gasp speech by arch dove Brainard on Monday key to Sept
rate hike probabilities

- Charts Fed rate expectations, WTI oil future testing key level, 30-yr JGB yield

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

A relatively modest schedule of data and events to end the week has the as expected no change decision from the Bank of Korea, China CPI & PPI and German Trade data to digest, while ahead lies UK Construction Output and Trade, Canadian Unemployment, US Wholesale Inventories and, perhaps most interestingly, some Fed speak from the normally dovish Rosengren (voter) and 'new boy' Kaplan (non-voter). The latter will be interesting given the window for pre-FOMC Fed speak closes on Tuesday, so the fact that both speakers are seen as neutral to dovish would make any comments that are vaguely hawkish a surprise. Yesterday evening 's announcement that arch dove Brainard will be speaking on policy and the economy on Monday has sparked speculation that she may spring a surprise hawkish tone to signal that a September rate move is very much on the table. That said, next week's run of US statistics will also weigh heavily in the equation, including as it does: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, PPI, CPI and the NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing surveys. On the oil front, it is well worth noting that it may have been the biggest fall in EIA Crude stocks since 199, but inventories are still at their highest levels in seasonal terms for 30 years. As the attached 30-yr JGB yield highlights, the flow of QE continues to have a destabilizing effect, as was also evident in the long end of the Eurozone govt bond market yesterday - the duration grab as part of the "reach for yield" looks to be increasingly dangerous, particularly if there is a swing to 'fiscalism' from monetary policy.

As for today's UK Trade and Construction readings, both series are notoriously volatile and subject to often large revisions, and were both deteriorating in trend terms well before the referendum. The July Visible Trade deficit is expected to narrow to £-11.65 Bln from June's 15 month 'wide' of £-12.41 Bln, which was most remarkable for the fact that the normally observed (though often modest) improvement in Q2 vs. Q1 did not materialize. As ever the 3-mth change in Exports and Imports will be closely watched, having slowed to 0.7% q/q and 1.2% q/q respectively in Q2. As for Construction Output, this is expected to contract by 0.5% m/m, which would see the y/y rate drop to -3.4% from June's -2.2%, and would mean that sector output has fallen in every month of 2016 outside of April, the latter being primarily an Easter timing effect. Eminently the vague hints from Chancellor Hammond around boosting housing sector output, both necessary and taken out of the much maligned Neville Chamberlain's playbook when he was Chancellor in the 1930s, and 'modest' investment in rail and road projects that are 'quick in delivering effect', should provide a boost to the sector. However Hammond's other comments relating to the Autumn Statement, scheduled for 23 November, have the air of the misguided and poor budgetary policy that has bedevilled the UK since the end of World War II, and left much of its overall infrastructure in such a poor state, especially for a developed country.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

index...supp held and bulls in
excellent
dax and ftse
stops tightened

 

[Dentalfloss]

our 6835 pivot workin well
scalps in and out
together with our 10600-10628 supp area
excellent