£/Y Been the one for me all day today and for the last few months too.
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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£/Y Been the one for me all day today and for the last few months too.
Moneylender
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Dow pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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gbp breakin
excellent
cable and gbpjpy
excellent
cable and gbpjpy
Dentalfloss
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cable and gbpjpy gettin out of that oversold
Moneylender
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Dow pump or dump
Dumped to supp @ 18555 area and bounced, green trend not not valid.
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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dax
yu wanna make bets on the direction ??
yu wanna make bets on the direction ??
Dentalfloss
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dow into the open
Dentalfloss
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areas of interest..
should be decent supp in 18515-18528 area aswell
should be decent supp in 18515-18528 area aswell
Moneylender
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Maybe I should go back to bed and wait for this to sort its self out!!
Dentalfloss
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Moneylender
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Think I need 10750 plus sometime today to place some biggy shorts
Dentalfloss
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NOMaybe I should go back to bed and wait for this to sort its self out!!
market ha no direction...should be pips in the confusion
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Dentalfloss
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A rather quieter day in terms of the data and events schedule with the focus on the UK labour and overnight Australian Wages (as expected) and very poor Singapore exports data, while the policy side has the July FOMC minutes to ponder, along with a likely dovish Mr Bullard. Outside of this there is the UK's DMO auction of 2055 conventional Gilts, which has seen a walloping great concession factored in after the very well covered BoE >15 year QE buyback yesterday (see chart); let's leave the comment on that at: "thanks for the volatility". Last but not least it is expiry day in August oil options (futures expire on Monday), which has been as much responsible for the recent rebound as the tiresome discussion about a production freeze agreement; the EIA version of the weekly oil and oil product stocks report, with last night's frequently unreliable pointers from the API report seeing a 1 Mln bbls fall in crude stocks against expectations of a 0.55 Ml bbls rise, though product inventories rise.
** U.K. June/July labour market indicators **
- After yesterday's rather stronger than expected CPI and particularly the RPI and PPI data, the latter bearing the scars of the GBP slide via a whopping 6.5% m/m surge in Import Prices, attention turns to the latest batch of labour market data. This seems likely to be rather less "exciting" than the inflation data. First of all the more reliable ILO Unemployment (seen at an unchanged 4.9%) and FLS Employment (seen expanding at a very healthy +150K) measures are for April-June, as are the Average Weekly Earnings (headline forecast to edge up to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, best since October), so there is not much Brexit spin to be put on them. As for the Claimant Count: yes, this has been trending higher over the past four months March +14.7K, April +6,4K, May +12.2K, Jun +0.4K, but it is often subject to relatively large revisions, e.g. May was revised from -0.4K to that +12.2K… and these numbers are rather small in the greater scheme of things. Vacancies will be for May-July, so it will be interesting to see if there is an impact, last 747K vs prior 748K… but again it has to be recognized that any setback would be from “record highs” (the series has not been running that long). Still there may well be a bunch of financial market and media folks willing to indulge in some egregious hyperbole if there any ‘surprises’, particularly negative ones.
** U.S.A. - July FOMC minutes **
- These are perhaps somewhat 'historical', if the Dudley comments on markets being "too complacent on rate hikes", along with the Lockhart two, minimum one rate hike teases yesterday, though the ephemerality and fluidity of so many Fed speakers views on the policy outlook will sustain a large degree of market scepticism about Fed hints of a rate move. Be that as it may, the July minutes are likely to highlight that while the door was left open for a September rate move, this was anything but a commitment, with a significant number of FOMC members still keen on seeing the headline PCE deflator running at much higher levels. The discussion on the economy will as ever be of interest, particularly given the statement noting that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.” But it will likely underline still rather divergent views of what the primary concerns of the FOMC about the economy should be. The Fed's problematic with a nominally "data dependent" approach is that it is meaning less when members of the committee a) have such different views of what given levels of activity, prices or employment should be triggers for policy action or inaction, and b) are so inconsistent in their interpretation, i.e. ostensibly flailing between activism and fear; they are obviously entitled to differ in their interpretation, but data dependency is as such completely and utterly meaningless. It will also be interesting to see if there was any discussion of the impact of the money market fund reform on USD LIBOR rates, and whether this effective tightening of monetary conditions is having any impact on the policy outlook, and as ever what if any discussion was had about the USD. It would also be apt for the FOMC to have / have had a discussion about how its incessant vacillation on rates, and its hither and thither communications is the primary driver of the complacency to which Dudley referred, even though such enlightened self-criticism does not appear to be a part of developed world central bankers' repertoire these days.
from Marc Ostwald
********************
A rather quieter day in terms of the data and events schedule with the focus on the UK labour and overnight Australian Wages (as expected) and very poor Singapore exports data, while the policy side has the July FOMC minutes to ponder, along with a likely dovish Mr Bullard. Outside of this there is the UK's DMO auction of 2055 conventional Gilts, which has seen a walloping great concession factored in after the very well covered BoE >15 year QE buyback yesterday (see chart); let's leave the comment on that at: "thanks for the volatility". Last but not least it is expiry day in August oil options (futures expire on Monday), which has been as much responsible for the recent rebound as the tiresome discussion about a production freeze agreement; the EIA version of the weekly oil and oil product stocks report, with last night's frequently unreliable pointers from the API report seeing a 1 Mln bbls fall in crude stocks against expectations of a 0.55 Ml bbls rise, though product inventories rise.
** U.K. June/July labour market indicators **
- After yesterday's rather stronger than expected CPI and particularly the RPI and PPI data, the latter bearing the scars of the GBP slide via a whopping 6.5% m/m surge in Import Prices, attention turns to the latest batch of labour market data. This seems likely to be rather less "exciting" than the inflation data. First of all the more reliable ILO Unemployment (seen at an unchanged 4.9%) and FLS Employment (seen expanding at a very healthy +150K) measures are for April-June, as are the Average Weekly Earnings (headline forecast to edge up to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, best since October), so there is not much Brexit spin to be put on them. As for the Claimant Count: yes, this has been trending higher over the past four months March +14.7K, April +6,4K, May +12.2K, Jun +0.4K, but it is often subject to relatively large revisions, e.g. May was revised from -0.4K to that +12.2K… and these numbers are rather small in the greater scheme of things. Vacancies will be for May-July, so it will be interesting to see if there is an impact, last 747K vs prior 748K… but again it has to be recognized that any setback would be from “record highs” (the series has not been running that long). Still there may well be a bunch of financial market and media folks willing to indulge in some egregious hyperbole if there any ‘surprises’, particularly negative ones.
** U.S.A. - July FOMC minutes **
- These are perhaps somewhat 'historical', if the Dudley comments on markets being "too complacent on rate hikes", along with the Lockhart two, minimum one rate hike teases yesterday, though the ephemerality and fluidity of so many Fed speakers views on the policy outlook will sustain a large degree of market scepticism about Fed hints of a rate move. Be that as it may, the July minutes are likely to highlight that while the door was left open for a September rate move, this was anything but a commitment, with a significant number of FOMC members still keen on seeing the headline PCE deflator running at much higher levels. The discussion on the economy will as ever be of interest, particularly given the statement noting that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.” But it will likely underline still rather divergent views of what the primary concerns of the FOMC about the economy should be. The Fed's problematic with a nominally "data dependent" approach is that it is meaning less when members of the committee a) have such different views of what given levels of activity, prices or employment should be triggers for policy action or inaction, and b) are so inconsistent in their interpretation, i.e. ostensibly flailing between activism and fear; they are obviously entitled to differ in their interpretation, but data dependency is as such completely and utterly meaningless. It will also be interesting to see if there was any discussion of the impact of the money market fund reform on USD LIBOR rates, and whether this effective tightening of monetary conditions is having any impact on the policy outlook, and as ever what if any discussion was had about the USD. It would also be apt for the FOMC to have / have had a discussion about how its incessant vacillation on rates, and its hither and thither communications is the primary driver of the complacency to which Dudley referred, even though such enlightened self-criticism does not appear to be a part of developed world central bankers' repertoire these days.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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10700 and 10630 areas hit
excellent
Moneylender
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got in @ 10642
Moneylender
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Closed @ 672, nice one. I love early pips
