Trading with point and figure

spx
a closer look

2w6s2l3.gif

trend supp at 2173 area/aqua
2170 breakout area
 
above 2186 is weekly rez from pivotalpivots on ES
think it is 2178.5 to 2186 on ES
think thats 2180-2188 on spx
 
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

While the day is not without statistics and events to ponder and digest, thin summer markets, which remain very focussed on central bank policy largesse, will likely ride roughshod over everything except the expected 25 bps rate in New Zealand tonight. On the data side, there are the overnight Japanese Private Machinery Orders, which were much better than expected in m/m terms at 8.3%, but still abject in q/q terms at -9.2% q/q, even if Q3 Orders are seen rebounding 5.2% q/q. Ahead lie Swedish Industrial Production & Services Output, Norwegian and Brazilian inflation along with US Job Openings and Treasury Budget. Otherwise OPEC offers its monthly Oil Market Report, while Germany and the US sell 10-yr debt. However the latter will be overshadowed by the BoE announcement about the lack of offers at only its second round of QE purchases (£1.118 Bln offered vs. target of £1.17 Bln), unsurprisingly this was the purchases in the over >15 year band. Hopefully the BoE will not compound their error by suggesting that they will extend QE purchases to include Index-Linked Gilts, as that really would amount to reading the last rites over the Gilt market. I repeat from yesterday's the question for central banks to answer is: "with so much issuance at near record low interest rates, why is business investment so weak, and why does so much of the money that is borrowed via the credit markets just spin round the financial sector, either via buybacks or special dividends. Outside of the generally much lower overall capital requirements of the Technological (aka fourth industrial) Revolution, perhaps the simple answer is because they (central banks, policy makers) keep on sending negative messages on the economic outlook, both via the rhetoric and their actions, which hardly amounts to an exhortation for business investment, particularly an era where politicians' raison d'etre would appear to either sit on their hands, or put their feet in their mouths." I would add 'The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results'. (See http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/Pages/apf/announcements.aspx). Be that as it may, the overnight session in Asia has seen record low yields for Indian Gilts, and the lowest yields on Chinese Govt bonds since 2009, underlining the extent of the current reach for yield wherever and however it can be obtained, which has all the hallmarks of indiscriminate lemming like behaviour, brought to everyone by their 'friendly' income annihilating G7 central banks.

** New Zealand - RBNZ Rate decision **
- As with so many "developed world" central banks, the RBNZ is obsessively compulsively chasing a disinflationary dragon, over which it has little or no control, above all as the central bank of a relatively small economy, whose policy settings and whose currency performance are primarily hostage to developments in larger economies. Be that as it may, headline CPI inflation has been below its 1.0% to 3.0% target range for 2 years, and as such it has little choice but to follow through on a strong hint in late July that it would have to cut rates further with inflation expected to remain subdued for the foreseeable future, with a 25 bps rate cut to a record low of 2.0% fully discounted, and the likelihood of at least one more 25 bps cut before year end. This is despite an extremely overheated housing market, as evidenced by the overnight REINZ House Price index evidenced with a 2.0% m/m rise for an 8.0% y/y reading, which the RBNZ thinks it can help to bring under control with macro-prudential measures, which have clearly not been effective over recent years. The RBNZ is also keen to see the NZ$ weaken, but with a rate differential that will still be large vs. G7 currencies, even if it were to cut rates to 1.50%, this looks to be a hopeless cause.
from Marc Ostwald
 
chronictrader said:
It faked above this high / yesterday's high 10 mins ago. That's a pretty bearish signal imho
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly chronic which, given I'm always wrong in my analysis, means it's going to go higher, lol! But, yes, the shorts had a bunch of stops resting just above the 700 number which were all taken out in a jiffy - hence the spike. But, as there was no follow through and price reversed back below 700 almost immediately, this suggests to me that the bulls are thin on the ground at this level and that price 'should' (hate using that word) fall. As I say, cue another rally like yesterday!
:cool:

Tim.
PS. -16 so far trying to get in early before a breakout. Any tips from you pros out there in how to trade these tight opening ranges would be much appreciated - they're my achilles heal.
 
timsk said:
My thoughts exactly chronic which, given I'm always wrong in my analysis, means it's going to go higher, lol! But, yes, the shorts had a bunch of stops resting just above the 700 number which were all taken out in a jiffy - hence the spike. But, as there was no follow through and price reversed back below 700 almost immediately, this suggests to me that the bulls are thin on the ground at this level and that price 'should' (hate using that word) fall. As I say, cue another rally like yesterday!
:cool:

Tim.
PS. -16 so far trying to get in early before a breakout. Any tips from you pros out there in how to trade these tight opening ranges would be much appreciated - they're my achilles heal.
Click to expand...

A broken clock is right at least twice a day ;)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Michael Carr
  • Article
Equities Technical Analysis Testing Point & Figure Patterns
Replies
0
Views
3K
T2W Bot
T2W Bot
S
Point&Figure
2
Replies
39
Views
7K
subarashi
S
M
Point and Figure
Replies
2
Views
1K
Dentalfloss
Dentalfloss
A
Point and Figure box size for commodities
Replies
4
Views
4K
TWI
TWI
William Rafter
  • Article
Technical Analysis Point & Figure Gone High Tech
Replies
18
Views
9K
GruntnoWay
G
Top