Trading with point and figure

dow updated
rez at 18519-18532 area
 

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COMMENT: One might term the statement 'cagily hawkish' in so far as it acknowledges labour market strengthening (Question: why did they panic about the May labour report?) and household spending ' growing strongly (Question: what was that about 'Consumer spending was generally positive but with some signs of softening' in the Beige Book?). On the negative side, it highlights that 'business fixed investment has been soft' (clearly underlined by today's Durable Goods report) and reiterates 'Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective' (less persuasive when considered from a CPI rather than a PCE deflator perspective). But most importantly in terms of leaving a September rate hike on the runway, it notes 'near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished', while keeping 'The Committee will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments'. In simple terms, all options are open, but barring something that they could again 'run scared of', a September rate hike is on the cards... but six weeks are a long time in market terms, especially if they include the frequently tetchy month of August. At least Esther George retained her credentials as the only genuine 'hawkish' voting member on the FOMC this year with a dissent: the rest of the FOMC are in Carney's 'unreliable boyfriend camp, though it is self-evident that face with the options of 'fight or flight', flight is the seemingly Pavlovian choice. In market terms, this probably takes the edge off the emergent bid to the USD, but how that evolves is now very much contingent on what the BoJ does or does not do on Friday. The idea that they are under pressure to act in a co-ordinated fashion to complement the rather nebulously detailed Abe fiscal package is by no means a safe one. One can certainly argue that the BoJ is in a position to adopt a 'wait and see' posture, at the very least until they can assess a more detailed package, and its potential impact on the economy.
from Marc Ostwald
 
dow seems to have more negative characteristics than spx
dow has a defined downtrend as per the chart
spx is more rangebound...no real use
 
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