Trading with point and figure

f2calv said:
Devon & Cornwall in a heatwave, pretty amazeballs tbh :)

BE5M6Gz.jpg

Porthcurno Beach
Click to expand...
you were lucky with the weather
it would have rained all week if i went
 
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Today's schedule of data and events is rather modest, particularly given the array of so-called risk events during the rest of this month ending week. The series of barbaric attacks in Germany serve as reminder that this an age of senseless violence, and that no country is immune; while the G20 communique once again underlined the toothless impotence of policymakers, as well as their inability to look beyond national interests. In terms of the statistical schedule, there are the still poor, but better than expected Japanese Trade data to digest, with the upcoming highlights centring on surveys: German Ifo Business Climate, UK CBI Industrial Trends and US Dallas Fed Manufacturing. The peak week for US corporate earnings gets underway with Sprint and Texas Instruments likely to be the highlights.

Following better than expected Manufacturing (but down m/m) and Services PMIs, the consensus looks for the Ifo Business Climate to drop m/m to 107.5 from a better than expected 108.7 in June, and led by expectations (f'cast 101.5 vs. June 103.1). As the survey predates the weekend barbarities, the risks would appear to lie to the upside of forecasts, which would imply a solid momentum in the economy going into H2 2016, even if the series of terror and mass murder events in Germany and the Eurozone will inevitably raise doubts about the sustainability of that trend. In the UK, the CBI Industrial Trends is forecast to show the headline Orders component slip from a much better than expected -2 to -6, though this would still be the second best reading over the past 10 months; by contrast the quarterly Business Optimism index is seen sliding to -15 from Q2 -5, which would be the worst reading since Q1 2012. Over in the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey is expected to recover more ground, with the projected -10 vs June's -18.3 being the best reading, if realized, since November 2015, though still underlining the continued headwinds from the energy sector.

RECAP: The Week Ahead - Bullet point highlights - 25 to 29 July 2016

- Busy week for data and surveys, Fed and BoJ meetings top central bank schedule, and there is an even bigger schedule of US and other corporate earnings, with major tech stocks like Apple and Alphabet (Google) in focus; US tops run of govt bond auctions, UK to sell I-L GIlt 2065 via syndication.

- Q2 prov. GDP readings from US, UK, Eurozone, France, Spain, South Korea; US seen posting solid 2.6% SAAR, UK respectable 0.5% q/q, Eurozone seen slowing to 0.3%, with France at just 0.2% q/q, Spain solid 0.7% q/q, South Korea 0.6% - overall rather more respectable than the market, IMF and central bank narrative on the global economy. The sceptics will continue to point to H2 slowdown risks...

- Eurozone and German CPI - Germany seen ticking up modestly to 0.3% y/y in HICP terms, Eurozone unchanged relative to June on headline and core, base effects on energy prices likely to kick in over H2, and this may well reinforce a protracted 'wait and see' at the ECB (eminently contingent on how growth turns out in H2).

- Fed: pre-meeting expectations management has been much the same as elsewhere 'wait and see what the fall-out from Brexit referendum proves to be', though in the Fed's case the view appears to be not much impact on economy, still wary about markets, financial stability. Particularly interesting to see how they reference solid run of data in terms of the policy outlook, they may well give a stronger hint that September is 'live'.

- BoJ: there appears to have been some attempt to wind back market expectations of some policy action, with 'helicopter money' ruled out by Kuroda at that June BBC interview, but then again he ruled out negative rates a week before the January cut 'disaster', and ensuing opprobrium. There are definitely some market participants expecting some more QQE at the very least.

- Australia CPI: seen slowing further on both headline (1.1% y/y vs. Q1 1.3%) and core measures (1.5% y/y vs. 1.7% and 1.3% y/y vs. 1.4%), likely to heighten expectations of a potential August rate cut.

- EM rate decisions: Most are expected to be no change. However noises from the government about the RUB being 'too strong' may prompt Bank Rossi to cut rates by 50 bps rather than hold as expected at 10.50%, even if governor Nabiullina is generally resistant to government pressure, though a clear downtrend to CPI does given her room to ease policy. Egypt's central bank looks more likely to countenance a further devaluation of the EGP than hike rates at the current juncture, despite the obvious accompanying risks for inflation.
from Marc Ostwald
 
This mornings trades on offer, I got the two shorts, but not the longs!
Not as quick as 007. lol

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