Dentalfloss
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lilac trendline at 2168 area
we either break higher or test the lilac area 2168
we either break higher or test the lilac area 2168
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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spx 1 minute over last 24 hours
Dentalfloss
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Post ECB thoughts: "A master class in stonewalling; banking problem resolution down to politicians"
Overall, Draghi appeared to be very determined to say nothing of any significance. To be fair, he and the rest of the council have stressed for a number of months that the existing package of policy measures must be given time to work, and that an assessment of whether there might be a need to do more would not happen before the September meeting and staff forecast update. Thus the message was that the ECB is 'ready, willing and able' to act 'if needed', while stressing that risks are to the downside of their forecasts, to underline a dovish bias. Sensibly they stuck to the line that it is too early to assess Brexit fall-out risks, though noting that the fall-out in financial markets has been well contained. It should be added that while he noted that risks were skewed to the downside, he appeared to be relatively speaking happy with the profile of growth at the current juncture
Otherwise, it was a case of doing a Trichet, i.e. stonewalling either by saying we do not know how x, y or z will play out, or referring to the September meeting as being when x, y or z will be discussed. On the banking sector woes, above all those in Italy and Portugal, he was careful to stress that the problems were Non-Performing Loan related, and not solvency related. He was also made it clear that resolving bank balance sheet issues was down to governments and the relevant parts of the EU commission, but that these issues should be addressed with some haste as it is hampering monetary policy transmission, adding that where necessary, a government back stop should be deployed.
As for QE implementation hurdles, above all on the PSPP (govt bond) programme, the message was simple: "In the past we've given enough evidence ... of our ability to adapt our purchases to reach ERU 80 Bln a month until March 2017 or beyond." There will almost certainly be some adjustments to it in September (Weidmann has effectively strongly hinted at this in post press conference comments), unless there are some very substantial shift in yields in the meantime.
As for the chances of additional policy measures in September, this is genuinely up in the air. It is clear that many council members would prefer not to do anything more, though an extension to the timeline beyond March 2017 does appear likely. For markets, the biggest risk near-term is that the heightened expectations of more 'stimulus' in the wake of the Brexit referendum have been overdone. There is as I noted earlier a not insubstantial risk that the BoE's MPC will have insufficient data to make a properly informed decision on what easing measures at its August meeting. As for the BoJ on July 30, there appears to be a lot of scepticism from a number of policy committee about the efficacy of current monetary policy, let along doing more, and the rumoured JPY 20 Trln fiscal stimulus would also give the BoJ a more than sufficient excuse to opt for Bank of Canada style 'wait and see'. The other risk is that incoming US data continues to be relatively robust, and that markets will have to adjust its 2016 Fed rate hike probabilities even higher (September now at 28.2%).
from Marc Ostwald
Overall, Draghi appeared to be very determined to say nothing of any significance. To be fair, he and the rest of the council have stressed for a number of months that the existing package of policy measures must be given time to work, and that an assessment of whether there might be a need to do more would not happen before the September meeting and staff forecast update. Thus the message was that the ECB is 'ready, willing and able' to act 'if needed', while stressing that risks are to the downside of their forecasts, to underline a dovish bias. Sensibly they stuck to the line that it is too early to assess Brexit fall-out risks, though noting that the fall-out in financial markets has been well contained. It should be added that while he noted that risks were skewed to the downside, he appeared to be relatively speaking happy with the profile of growth at the current juncture
Otherwise, it was a case of doing a Trichet, i.e. stonewalling either by saying we do not know how x, y or z will play out, or referring to the September meeting as being when x, y or z will be discussed. On the banking sector woes, above all those in Italy and Portugal, he was careful to stress that the problems were Non-Performing Loan related, and not solvency related. He was also made it clear that resolving bank balance sheet issues was down to governments and the relevant parts of the EU commission, but that these issues should be addressed with some haste as it is hampering monetary policy transmission, adding that where necessary, a government back stop should be deployed.
As for QE implementation hurdles, above all on the PSPP (govt bond) programme, the message was simple: "In the past we've given enough evidence ... of our ability to adapt our purchases to reach ERU 80 Bln a month until March 2017 or beyond." There will almost certainly be some adjustments to it in September (Weidmann has effectively strongly hinted at this in post press conference comments), unless there are some very substantial shift in yields in the meantime.
As for the chances of additional policy measures in September, this is genuinely up in the air. It is clear that many council members would prefer not to do anything more, though an extension to the timeline beyond March 2017 does appear likely. For markets, the biggest risk near-term is that the heightened expectations of more 'stimulus' in the wake of the Brexit referendum have been overdone. There is as I noted earlier a not insubstantial risk that the BoE's MPC will have insufficient data to make a properly informed decision on what easing measures at its August meeting. As for the BoJ on July 30, there appears to be a lot of scepticism from a number of policy committee about the efficacy of current monetary policy, let along doing more, and the rumoured JPY 20 Trln fiscal stimulus would also give the BoJ a more than sufficient excuse to opt for Bank of Canada style 'wait and see'. The other risk is that incoming US data continues to be relatively robust, and that markets will have to adjust its 2016 Fed rate hike probabilities even higher (September now at 28.2%).
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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SPX and dax plummet
any reason ??
any reason ??
Dentalfloss
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horizontal supp area at 2165
Dentalfloss
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spx
now we have a fix on whats happening
now we have a fix on whats happening
Dentalfloss
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excellent signal to go short from the chartspx
now we have a fix on whats happening
Dentalfloss
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spx
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if our 2165 breaks..then 2160..ish
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spx tank from bond market rallying
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Ten year bills
Dentalfloss
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SPX
is it the move down ...Bradley Model/price and time coonvergence ..??
2014 spx lost 80 points
is it the move down ...Bradley Model/price and time coonvergence ..??
2014 spx lost 80 points
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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spx ..trend still intact...just
should bounce..
trend supp in 2162 area..there now
minor rez at 2164-2166/prev break/red horizontal
trend rez at 2170 area
should bounce..
trend supp in 2162 area..there now
minor rez at 2164-2166/prev break/red horizontal
trend rez at 2170 area
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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top was 2175.70..so far
we had 2172 marked last week
lets see what happens
we had 2172 marked last week
lets see what happens
Dentalfloss
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2160..breakin..possibly
2152 on the cards
2152 on the cards
Dentalfloss
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There now
2158 to 2160 . Chart posted
MichaelJohnFX
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I think the short term top is in on the S&P. Looks like this move up this morning was a fake.
ear Jeffrey,
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
At the start of the year I warned that the FTSE 100 would go down to 5,000 by the
end of the year. Given the devaluation of the pound following Brexit and improved
economic activity in the US and China during the second quarter, this forecast is
still valid but it may take longer for the FTSE to get to that level. Nothing has
changed in the long term and I expect my target to be hit in 2017. In the short
term however, we will see a larger than previously thought counter trend rally,
in time and magnitude. The bottom line is, the collapse in the stock market has
been delayed.
Negative developments to watch:
Central banks are running out of ammunitions, an unprecedented wave of stimulus
/ quantitative easing around the world has failed to put the global economy on a
firm footing. It seems Europe and the US are going to experience what Japan experienced
at the end of the 90's, a deflationary cycle that could last many years. The International
Monetary Fund warned "The UK's vote for Brexit has added significant uncertainty
to an already fragile global recovery".
The Japanese stock market peaked in 1989 and is down 57% in the last 27 years.
Despite multiple interventions by the ECB since the credit crunch of 2008-2009,
growth in Europe is still weak. The ECB introduced negative interest rates in 2014
in a desperate move to save the economy, but growth is still weak. Like in Japan
the spectre of deflation is real and it's just a matter of time before deflation
spreads to other parts of the world. Already bond yields are at record lows in anticipation
of a global crisis.
The slowdown has now spread to the UK. The pound has dropped sharply in the last
four weeks since Brexit, and consumer confidence is low. The Bank of England must
find a solution to revive the economy but cutting rates is not the answer, this
would import inflation. The UK is facing stagflation, a long period of low growth
and rising inflation which is negative for the stock market. We can expect asset
prices in the UK to deflate including house prices.
Italian banks but also Deutsche Bank are in trouble, another banking crisis looms.
Any bank failure would spread to UK and US banks. Lowering interest rates won't
help profits at UK banks, this explains why UK bank shares are trading near their
post credit crunch lows. Ask a simple question: why are bank shares going down while
the FTSE 100 is going up? This is normal behaviour in a bear market. This time however,
banks won't be too big to fail.
A massive debt bubble in China is about to burst. Remember the debt bubble in 2007?
This one is even larger. God knows what will happen if China debt bubble bursts.
Perhaps the most worrying development is the rise of terrorism in the West. A number
of incidents have taken place in France, Belgium and the US. Such incidents and
if they become more frequent as I suspect, will impact on the economic recovery.
An increase in the number of terrorist incidents would cause a contraction in both
consumer spending and investment, that would be another drag on the economy.
As you can see, you must wonder why investors are in the mood to buy stocks. Greed
is the answer. Sentiment is bullish and there is no alternative with better returns.
Well, there is an alternative and it's called cash but investors are too bullish
on stocks to contemplate a cash position. My sentiment indicator has been rising
for a while, when it's rising investors are in bullish mood and when they are in
bullish mood they focus on the positive news like stimulus, and ignore the negative
developments. As long as they are in bullish mood the FTSE has the potential to
move to 7,000 in the next month or two, then it's the big short. Not the film but
the most powerful decline since August 2015. In Elliott wave analysis we call this
decline a third wave down, following wave (2) which is the current rally. In a bear
market, markets decline in five waves and the next major decline will be the third.
It's also called the recognition phase, when investors finally realise it's a bear
market, then they will rush for the exits. Increased participation from sellers
will create a longer and more powerful wave down than the first wave that ended
in August 2015. This third wave will subdivide into five waves [1,2,3,4,5]. At the
end of wave 5 the FTSE will be trading near 5,000.
Meanwhile we trade the short term and intraday trends, so it does not matter if
the FTSE 100 rallies further before the big drop begins. We will continue to track
the short term moves up and down as always and we have done very well over the last
fifteen months with our mixed strategy of swing trades, intraday trades and options
(+177% based on stakes of £1 per £1000 trading capital). I hope you will join us.
The FTSE 100 will peak during the summer, be ready for the next move down
To receive regular analysis and trading signals on the FTSE 100, options, S&P 500,
EUR/USD and Gold subscribe to Better Trader Premium [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001WPVF...rPT9VxseOC3FqmzOVhsfh_TlA9KrTwYfb6_kbIdc8g==]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
At the start of the year I warned that the FTSE 100 would go down to 5,000 by the
end of the year. Given the devaluation of the pound following Brexit and improved
economic activity in the US and China during the second quarter, this forecast is
still valid but it may take longer for the FTSE to get to that level. Nothing has
changed in the long term and I expect my target to be hit in 2017. In the short
term however, we will see a larger than previously thought counter trend rally,
in time and magnitude. The bottom line is, the collapse in the stock market has
been delayed.
Negative developments to watch:
Central banks are running out of ammunitions, an unprecedented wave of stimulus
/ quantitative easing around the world has failed to put the global economy on a
firm footing. It seems Europe and the US are going to experience what Japan experienced
at the end of the 90's, a deflationary cycle that could last many years. The International
Monetary Fund warned "The UK's vote for Brexit has added significant uncertainty
to an already fragile global recovery".
The Japanese stock market peaked in 1989 and is down 57% in the last 27 years.
Despite multiple interventions by the ECB since the credit crunch of 2008-2009,
growth in Europe is still weak. The ECB introduced negative interest rates in 2014
in a desperate move to save the economy, but growth is still weak. Like in Japan
the spectre of deflation is real and it's just a matter of time before deflation
spreads to other parts of the world. Already bond yields are at record lows in anticipation
of a global crisis.
The slowdown has now spread to the UK. The pound has dropped sharply in the last
four weeks since Brexit, and consumer confidence is low. The Bank of England must
find a solution to revive the economy but cutting rates is not the answer, this
would import inflation. The UK is facing stagflation, a long period of low growth
and rising inflation which is negative for the stock market. We can expect asset
prices in the UK to deflate including house prices.
Italian banks but also Deutsche Bank are in trouble, another banking crisis looms.
Any bank failure would spread to UK and US banks. Lowering interest rates won't
help profits at UK banks, this explains why UK bank shares are trading near their
post credit crunch lows. Ask a simple question: why are bank shares going down while
the FTSE 100 is going up? This is normal behaviour in a bear market. This time however,
banks won't be too big to fail.
A massive debt bubble in China is about to burst. Remember the debt bubble in 2007?
This one is even larger. God knows what will happen if China debt bubble bursts.
Perhaps the most worrying development is the rise of terrorism in the West. A number
of incidents have taken place in France, Belgium and the US. Such incidents and
if they become more frequent as I suspect, will impact on the economic recovery.
An increase in the number of terrorist incidents would cause a contraction in both
consumer spending and investment, that would be another drag on the economy.
As you can see, you must wonder why investors are in the mood to buy stocks. Greed
is the answer. Sentiment is bullish and there is no alternative with better returns.
Well, there is an alternative and it's called cash but investors are too bullish
on stocks to contemplate a cash position. My sentiment indicator has been rising
for a while, when it's rising investors are in bullish mood and when they are in
bullish mood they focus on the positive news like stimulus, and ignore the negative
developments. As long as they are in bullish mood the FTSE has the potential to
move to 7,000 in the next month or two, then it's the big short. Not the film but
the most powerful decline since August 2015. In Elliott wave analysis we call this
decline a third wave down, following wave (2) which is the current rally. In a bear
market, markets decline in five waves and the next major decline will be the third.
It's also called the recognition phase, when investors finally realise it's a bear
market, then they will rush for the exits. Increased participation from sellers
will create a longer and more powerful wave down than the first wave that ended
in August 2015. This third wave will subdivide into five waves [1,2,3,4,5]. At the
end of wave 5 the FTSE will be trading near 5,000.
Meanwhile we trade the short term and intraday trends, so it does not matter if
the FTSE 100 rallies further before the big drop begins. We will continue to track
the short term moves up and down as always and we have done very well over the last
fifteen months with our mixed strategy of swing trades, intraday trades and options
(+177% based on stakes of £1 per £1000 trading capital). I hope you will join us.
The FTSE 100 will peak during the summer, be ready for the next move down
To receive regular analysis and trading signals on the FTSE 100, options, S&P 500,
EUR/USD and Gold subscribe to Better Trader Premium [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001WPVF...rPT9VxseOC3FqmzOVhsfh_TlA9KrTwYfb6_kbIdc8g==]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
