Trading with point and figure

dax updated

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Once again the run of scheduled data and events is relatively sparse, and punctuated by UK statistics which may elicit little more than yesterday's brief pop post CPI, but then give way to the harsh reality of the ongoing uncertainties. On the agenda are the UK labour data, Eurozone preliminary Consumer Confidence, another slug of US and other Corporate Earnings, while there are expected no change policy decisions due in Brazil, Indonesia and Paraguay, with New Zealand's RBNZ's update on the economic outlook expected to hint strongly at a further rate cut, accompanied by measures to cool the very overheated local housing market. On the govt bond auction front, Germany sells another zero coupon (income) bond, in this case of the 5-yr variety, which will price well above par, and therefore those holding it maturity will be giving money away to Merkel and Schaeuble - how kind.

** U.K. - May/June Unemployment / Average Earnings **
- If yesterday's somewhat higher than expected inflation readings elicited little more than a short-lived algo driven uptick in the GBP and Gilt yields, today's rather more historical labour data will have to spring some genuine surprises to prompt anything more than a 'harrumph'. A modest 3.5K rise in the Claimant Count is seen after little change in May, with the ILO Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 5.0% and FLS Employment (for the March to May period) is projected to pick up to 73K vs. 55K in the 3 months to April; in effect underlining that there were few signs of any significant slackening in labour demand ahead of the referendum. Base effects and the introduction of the Minimum Living Wages will likely be the key factor behind a projected 'jump' to a still rather subdued 2.3% y/y from 2.0%, with the ex-Bonus measure see edging up to 2.4% from 2.3%. A close eye will also need to be kept on the labour report's Vacancies reading (May last 749K, close to all-time highs).
from Marc Ostwald
 
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