Trading with point and figure

First 30 mins and 9760- 9810 is the range!!

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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As H2 2016 gets properly underway, the US Independence Day holiday gives markets the opportunity to pause for breath after the roller coaster post-Brexit referendum, quarter end ride, even if early price action looks to be a case of carrying on from where last week was left off. Unsurprisingly the schedule of data is modest, with the focal points likely to be the UK Construction PMI, though many of the responses may have been submitted pre-referendum, and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence survey, while the Bank of Canada publishes its business outlook & senior loan officer surveys. Per se political developments seem likely to provide the 'mood music', with Australia joining the ranks of countries where there is heightened political uncertainty, after a stalemate in its general election, while Poland's PiS government has started to outline its plans to partially appropriate private pensions for 'new important economic ventures'. The weekend developments in terms of the leadership contest for the UK's two main political parties only serve to thicken the fog of uncertainty of where the post-referendum path will lead. Nevertheless Mr Osborne's proposal to cut corporation tax to 15% financed by spending cuts elsewhere, and the various pronouncements of the contenders to be the next Prime Minister serve to underline that the UK body politic appears incapable of learning any lessons, and remains completely dislocated from, and disdainful of the populace (European and US politicians being no better). Per se, the risk of extra-parliamentary socio-political tension and unrest continues to rise. Markets continue to send very contradictory signals (if that is what they should be called), given risk and safe have assets are rallying simultaneously. While the NIRP and ZIRP 'forever' fraternity will find little fault with the fact that the Swiss government is now in the enviable position of asking investors to pay it to finance its public sector debt, with yields negative across the maturity spectrum out to 50 years. It nevertheless gives the lie to central banks' assertions that there is no evidence of asset price bubbles. The fact that some $11.7 Trln of bonds are now trading on negative nominal yields, thanks to the combination of ZIRP/NIRP/QE and a swathe of political inertia, underlines an even greater chasm between the financial and the real economies, as well as sending a dire signal about the current state of the world, above all the financial sector. Bonds on this basis are rather more akin to equities, and by extension the term 'safe haven' is misplaced. Draghi and others would doubtless point to the level of real yields not being particularly low, when considered from a long-term perspective. But the simple point is that real yields are a mathematical construct, they do reflect what actual cash income is being generated on investments. It is moot to talk about the capital gains on bonds, until they are realized. When they are realized, then the cash has to be reinvested, or used to compensate for the lack of income via interest, more than likely eroding the pool of investment capital. Indeed, if that is what has to be done, then bonds have to be called equities, and as previously argued, the likelihood of a pension funds crisis will likely rise inexorably, the longer this financial repression continues.

As far as the schedule for the rest of the week goes, the US labour report will be the focal point, and is accompanied by Services PMIs, German Factory Orders, various European Industrial Production readings, Japanese Wages, China FX Reserves & FDI, and US & Canada Trade Balances. On the policy side of the equation, there will be plenty of Fed, ECB and BoJ speakers, while the Bank of England publishes its semi-annual Financial Stability report, accompanied by another press conference with Carney. The UK will also see the publication of the Chilcot Inquiry into the UK’s role in 2003 Iraq invasion, which has been seven years in the making. It will supposedly provide answers to some very painful questions: were the British armed forces sent to Iraq under false pretences? Was the intelligence used to justify the invasion wilfully distorted, and if so, who was responsible? Finally, while the pre-Payrolls vigil will likely dampen activity, the end of Ramadan Eid-Al Fitr holidays will also serve to thin participation.
from Marc Ostwald
 
Hi All, based on my charts...We have failed to sustain / build value above Friday's high. In fact, we broke it on the open but failed to hold. Value has now started building below the high of Friday and within Friday's value area. This would tell me that the top is "probably", but not definitely is in / nearly topping out. First initial target for me would be 9655 area.
 
:smart::smart:
Great call.thanks

chronictrader said:
Hi All, based on my charts...We have failed to sustain / build value above Friday's high. In fact, we broke it on the open but failed to hold. Value has now started building below the high of Friday and within Friday's value area. This would tell me that the top is "probably", but not definitely is in / nearly topping out. First initial target for me would be 9655 area.
Click to expand...
 
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