Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dax lookin like it wants to start a new minor uptrend
watch for any failures
watch for any failures
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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rip or dip
Dentalfloss
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dip
yu gotta be ready at both sides
yu gotta be ready at both sides
Dentalfloss
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and bounce from our supp
Dentalfloss
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Coming into support
Dentalfloss
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Our rez held...and dump
Dentalfloss
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and bounce
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and rip...finally
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 29 May 2020 - ADM ISI
- Deluge of major data from around the world, but month end and weekend
likely to temper reaction: digesting poor Japan & Korea and rebound in
Vietnam Production, awaiting Eurozone CPI; Brazil, Canada & India GDP;
US Goods Trade Balance, Personal Income / PCE, Chicago PMI, final
Michigan Sentiment; Fed's Powell and ECB's Visco to speak;
- India Q1 GDP: seen slowing again, but focus on expected collapse in Q2
- US Personal Income / PCE: sharp falls expected, but risk skewed to even
worse outturns
- US Goods Trade balance: little change in deficit seen vs. March, complex
interplay in terms of key factors
- Charts: Fed balance sheets vs Treasury issuance; S&P500 sector performance;
VIX & V2X volatility indices; US IG Corporate Issuance
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As is often the case, the month end calendar is overwhelmed by a deluge of data, much of which is significant, but due to month end and the weekend, reaction may be rather muted. There are Korean Production, the end of month run of CPI, labour data, Retail Sales, Industrial Production (all worse than forecast and Consumer Confidence (unexpected modest recovery) out of Japan, and Vietnam's Production and Trade along with German Retail Sales, French Consumer Spending and Turkey's Current Account to digest. Ahead lie Eurozone CPI (likely in line with forecasts tg, a whole host of Q1 GDP readings from Europe (prov. & final), Brazil, Canada and India, and a busy run in the US that includes Personal Income/PCE, advance Goods Trade Balance, Chicago PMI and final Michigan Sentiment. The events schedule is more modest with Fed's Powell and ECB's Visco speaking, the end of month Italian BTP auction and an expected 50 bps rate cut in Colombia. We have previously noted how the balance of liquidity flows (in effect Fed injections vs. Treasury & corporate issuance, and the attached charts highlight how the Fed is pulling back in flow terms, while Treasury & IG Corporate issuance is ballooning, per se absorbing more excess liquidity and leaving less money to chase returns and yields in other asset classes, in other words a 'crowding out' type effect.
** India - Q1 GDP **
- As with so many countries where lockdown did not take place until the end of March, the Q1 reading is largely of academic interest, and the focus is primarily on what happens in Q2. That said, India's growth has been a tale of woe for a protracted period, slowing to 5.1% y/y in Q3 and 4.7% in Q4, and as much as a modest rebound to around 5.5% had been projected for Q1 prior to Covid-19, the consensus now looks for a meagre 1.0% y/y, which implies FY 2020 (ending in Q1) was around 4.0%, with initial guesstimates for Q2 GDP centring around a whopping -25.0% y/y, given lockdown has been extended until the end of May. In the detail, agriculture, mining and utilities are likely to be the only positive contributors, with a sharp contraction in Industrial Production in March (-16.7% y/y) the biggest drag, with Services perhaps eking out a marginal again.
** U.S.A. - April Personal Income/PCE & Goods Trade Balance **
- The spectacular rise in Unemployment and the collapse in Retail Sales predicate expectations of -6.0% m/m for Personal Income, and -12.8% m/m for Personal Consumption, though the risks given the composition of both the labour and Retail Sales data look to be on the downside, above all given compositional differences on Income as a compared to Average Hourly Earnings. Anecdotal reports suggests that online shopping provided only a very modest offset to the collapse in autos, restaurants & other leisure outlets. While the contribution of net exports to Q2 GDP is rather immaterial given the expected colossal hit to Private Consumption, Business and Housing Investment, nevertheless it might provide a modest offset, the consensus looks for a marginal widening to $-65.0 Bln from March's $-64.4 Bln, though much will depend on how the mix of petroleum, autos, capital goods and agriculture balances (likely to improve) plays out against likely larger imbalances on raw and intermediate factory materials and consumer & healthcare goods.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
| Inbox | x |
| 08:30 (8 minutes ago) |
|
- Deluge of major data from around the world, but month end and weekend
likely to temper reaction: digesting poor Japan & Korea and rebound in
Vietnam Production, awaiting Eurozone CPI; Brazil, Canada & India GDP;
US Goods Trade Balance, Personal Income / PCE, Chicago PMI, final
Michigan Sentiment; Fed's Powell and ECB's Visco to speak;
- India Q1 GDP: seen slowing again, but focus on expected collapse in Q2
- US Personal Income / PCE: sharp falls expected, but risk skewed to even
worse outturns
- US Goods Trade balance: little change in deficit seen vs. March, complex
interplay in terms of key factors
- Charts: Fed balance sheets vs Treasury issuance; S&P500 sector performance;
VIX & V2X volatility indices; US IG Corporate Issuance
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As is often the case, the month end calendar is overwhelmed by a deluge of data, much of which is significant, but due to month end and the weekend, reaction may be rather muted. There are Korean Production, the end of month run of CPI, labour data, Retail Sales, Industrial Production (all worse than forecast and Consumer Confidence (unexpected modest recovery) out of Japan, and Vietnam's Production and Trade along with German Retail Sales, French Consumer Spending and Turkey's Current Account to digest. Ahead lie Eurozone CPI (likely in line with forecasts tg, a whole host of Q1 GDP readings from Europe (prov. & final), Brazil, Canada and India, and a busy run in the US that includes Personal Income/PCE, advance Goods Trade Balance, Chicago PMI and final Michigan Sentiment. The events schedule is more modest with Fed's Powell and ECB's Visco speaking, the end of month Italian BTP auction and an expected 50 bps rate cut in Colombia. We have previously noted how the balance of liquidity flows (in effect Fed injections vs. Treasury & corporate issuance, and the attached charts highlight how the Fed is pulling back in flow terms, while Treasury & IG Corporate issuance is ballooning, per se absorbing more excess liquidity and leaving less money to chase returns and yields in other asset classes, in other words a 'crowding out' type effect.
** India - Q1 GDP **
- As with so many countries where lockdown did not take place until the end of March, the Q1 reading is largely of academic interest, and the focus is primarily on what happens in Q2. That said, India's growth has been a tale of woe for a protracted period, slowing to 5.1% y/y in Q3 and 4.7% in Q4, and as much as a modest rebound to around 5.5% had been projected for Q1 prior to Covid-19, the consensus now looks for a meagre 1.0% y/y, which implies FY 2020 (ending in Q1) was around 4.0%, with initial guesstimates for Q2 GDP centring around a whopping -25.0% y/y, given lockdown has been extended until the end of May. In the detail, agriculture, mining and utilities are likely to be the only positive contributors, with a sharp contraction in Industrial Production in March (-16.7% y/y) the biggest drag, with Services perhaps eking out a marginal again.
** U.S.A. - April Personal Income/PCE & Goods Trade Balance **
- The spectacular rise in Unemployment and the collapse in Retail Sales predicate expectations of -6.0% m/m for Personal Income, and -12.8% m/m for Personal Consumption, though the risks given the composition of both the labour and Retail Sales data look to be on the downside, above all given compositional differences on Income as a compared to Average Hourly Earnings. Anecdotal reports suggests that online shopping provided only a very modest offset to the collapse in autos, restaurants & other leisure outlets. While the contribution of net exports to Q2 GDP is rather immaterial given the expected colossal hit to Private Consumption, Business and Housing Investment, nevertheless it might provide a modest offset, the consensus looks for a marginal widening to $-65.0 Bln from March's $-64.4 Bln, though much will depend on how the mix of petroleum, autos, capital goods and agriculture balances (likely to improve) plays out against likely larger imbalances on raw and intermediate factory materials and consumer & healthcare goods.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
Dentalfloss
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line chart can often give you better signals
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Our supp workin a treat
Dentalfloss
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buyers need 25350 as supp
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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