Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · May 14, 2020

Will it get bought..??

Dentalfloss · May 14, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 14, 2020

Dentalfloss · May 14, 2020

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 14 May 2020 - ADM ISI

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Ostwald, Marc

08:35 (1 minute ago)

to Marc

- Digesting UK RiCS, mixed Australia & France labour data, US Claims the
other key data point; deluge of central bank speakers; IEA Oil market
report; bond auctions in UK and Ireland; smattering of corp earnings

- US jobless claims: initial claims to ease further, but continued claims
to jump again, highlighting risks of permanently lost jobs

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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For all that he economic data schedule looks busy, there are rather few items that will have anything but a passing impact on markets, essentially that boils down to the overnight Australia labour data (slightly worse than expected) and an unsurprisingly grim UK RICS House Price survey, and US weekly jobless claims, which are accompanied by the last of this week's US inflation metrics - Import and Export prices, the rest is nothing more than noise and statistical roadkill. By contrast, the central bank speaker schedule could not be more busy, with numerous Fed speakers, as well as BoJ, ECB, BoE, RBNZ and BoC, with Mexico's central bank seen cutting rates a further 50 bps to 5.50%, while Egypt's CBRE is again expected to hold. Key corporate earnings have results from Nissan and Kia Motors to digest, with Brazil in the spotlight in the Americas via way of JBS and Petrobras. Govt bond supply is more modest with the overnight 30-yr JGB sales accompanied by 5 & 21-yr in the UK, 10 & 30-yr from Ireland, and no less than $225 Bln total of US 1 & 2-mth T-Bills as well as Cash Management Bills. Following on from OPEC yesterday, the IEA issues its monthly oil market report, largely a question of how much it revises its estimate of this year's demand. While most market participants welcome QE measures as an unalloyed 'benefit', despite the very obvious fact that it has failed to push CPI inflation measures in most countries to respective targets over the past decade, the latest variant being proposed in India, which looks to 'securitize' household gold for QE purposes ttps://bit.ly/2Z0J8iP) in an effort to alleviate an already severely impaired fiscal position smacks of desperation, and yet another form of dubious financial engineering.

In terms of US weekly jobless claims, a further drop is expected to 2.50 Mln from 3.169 Mln, but as previously noted the key metric now is the level of Continued Claims, which are expected to jump again to 25.12 Mln from 22.647 Mln, and effectively representing those that are not 'transiently' unemployed. Eminently the latter data are one week behind in reporting terms, and the unashamed positivists will argue that with the US economy starting to re-open, these are therefore a lagging indicator; but if forecasts are correct, and even if this were to be unchanged (highly unlikely), it is not unreasonable to expected that many of the related job losses are likely to prove permanent.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

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