Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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FTSE in rez
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Cable in rez
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EUR crosses could get bought
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Week Ahead: Data & Events - Preview & Highlights - 27 April to 1 May 2020 - ADM ISI
The Week Ahead - Preview:
- The Fed (Weds) and ECB (Thurs) follow Monday's BoJ meeting - all will stress their capacity to do 'whatever is necessary' and their 'unlimited capacity', but stress that fiscal and structural policies will be critical in restoring economies to some semblance of health, and that they (central banks) are primarily trying to stave off even bigger economic contractions and financial systemic implosions. In all cases, the simple points about their policy settings are a) however much they deny it, this is' outright monetary financing', b) for most asset classes they are the 'back stop' buyer and per underpinning asset bubbles; c) any winding back of current, past and future measures will create a shock effect, and per se this is overall a 'debt trap'. As a reminder, in the 2010-19 decade global GDP rose $20 Trln, while global total debt rose $50 Trln, in other words every $1.0 of growth required $2.5 of new debt, this metric is now considerably worse (say $3.5 to 4.0 of debt for every $1.0 of growth). That is not sustainable, and the metaphor for it is The Picture of Dorian Grey - enough said.
- Statistically a raft of advance Q1 GDP are due, most notably US and Eurozone, with sharp contractions expected, in most cases on a scale unseen since WWII, and Q2 will likely be worse. April CPI data is also plentiful, and will see a big drag from energy and other commodity prices, but will be subordinate to labour market indicators, Germany and others report for April, the US has Claims but Payrolls wll be published May 8. Manufacturing PMIs on Friday will contract further, as signalled by the G7 flash PMIs, and while headline readings will be better than Services, the sub-components on Production / Output and Orders will be worse than headline indices. Other surveys will also be plentiful again, and Trade data is due in a number of Asian countries.
- Oil markets will remain in focus as the OPEC+ production cuts take come into force, with the US energy sector set to see many bankruptcies and corporate failures. Month end will probably subdue trading volumes, and likely generate a good number of anomalies in trading patterns. The start of Ramadan and the May Day holiday on Friday will also weigh on volumes and liquidity, as will the start of Golden Week in Japan.
- Govt bond auctions will gain be plentiful, led by the US with $407 Bln of Bills and coupons and the UK with £9.25 Bln of Gilts, with corporate issuance also continuing at a very high pace, as long as volatility does rebound from still very high levels in equity index terms.
- China holds its delayed session of the National People's Congress with the focus on how much more there will be in fiscal terms to underpin a likely tentative rebound from Q1's contraction. UK PM Johnson takes back the reins of every day government, with the focus in the UK, Europe and North America on what measures to gradually and tentatively ease some lockdown measures will be taken, above all given the risks of a resurgence in infection rates. Markets will continue to hope for better news on vaccines, immunology testing and other medical interventions to combat the worst aspects of the virus in the most severe cases, but would be well advised to rein in their animal spirits given that research remains at a very early stage, and failures will remain plentiful - solutions will eventually be found, but realistic timeframes are 1 to 2 years (and that is quite possibly optimistic).
- Corporate earnings will also be plentiful, with roughly half of all S&P 500 companies reporting, and the following (by sector) likely to be among the highlights:
Finance: Aflac, Aon, Apollo Global Management, Banco Santander, Bank of China, Barclays, Carlyle Group, CME, Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Mastercard, Royal Bank of Scotland, Sberbank, Standard Chartered, Swiss Re, UBS, Visa
Tech: Amazon, AMD, Apple, Alphabet, eBay, Facebook, LG Electronics, Microsoft, Nokia, Spotify, Qualcomm, Sirius, Samsung, Twitter, Wirecard
Industrials: 3M, Airbus, Boeing, Caterpillar, GE, General Dynamics, Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, Weyerhaeuser,
Energy :BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, Royal Dutch Shell, SolarWinds, Total, Vale.
Consumer: Adidas, Altria, Clorox, Femsa, Hasbro, McDonald’s, Molson Coors, PepsiCo, Starbucks
Transport: Daimler, Ford, Tesla, Harley-Davidson, Lufthansa, Volkswagen, UPS.
Health care: AbbVie, Bayer, Centene, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Merck, Pfizer,
Telecommunications: Charter Communications, Comcast
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
Research
ADM Investor Services International Limited
| Inbox | x |
| 06:31 (2 hours ago) |
|
The Week Ahead - Preview:
- The Fed (Weds) and ECB (Thurs) follow Monday's BoJ meeting - all will stress their capacity to do 'whatever is necessary' and their 'unlimited capacity', but stress that fiscal and structural policies will be critical in restoring economies to some semblance of health, and that they (central banks) are primarily trying to stave off even bigger economic contractions and financial systemic implosions. In all cases, the simple points about their policy settings are a) however much they deny it, this is' outright monetary financing', b) for most asset classes they are the 'back stop' buyer and per underpinning asset bubbles; c) any winding back of current, past and future measures will create a shock effect, and per se this is overall a 'debt trap'. As a reminder, in the 2010-19 decade global GDP rose $20 Trln, while global total debt rose $50 Trln, in other words every $1.0 of growth required $2.5 of new debt, this metric is now considerably worse (say $3.5 to 4.0 of debt for every $1.0 of growth). That is not sustainable, and the metaphor for it is The Picture of Dorian Grey - enough said.
- Statistically a raft of advance Q1 GDP are due, most notably US and Eurozone, with sharp contractions expected, in most cases on a scale unseen since WWII, and Q2 will likely be worse. April CPI data is also plentiful, and will see a big drag from energy and other commodity prices, but will be subordinate to labour market indicators, Germany and others report for April, the US has Claims but Payrolls wll be published May 8. Manufacturing PMIs on Friday will contract further, as signalled by the G7 flash PMIs, and while headline readings will be better than Services, the sub-components on Production / Output and Orders will be worse than headline indices. Other surveys will also be plentiful again, and Trade data is due in a number of Asian countries.
- Oil markets will remain in focus as the OPEC+ production cuts take come into force, with the US energy sector set to see many bankruptcies and corporate failures. Month end will probably subdue trading volumes, and likely generate a good number of anomalies in trading patterns. The start of Ramadan and the May Day holiday on Friday will also weigh on volumes and liquidity, as will the start of Golden Week in Japan.
- Govt bond auctions will gain be plentiful, led by the US with $407 Bln of Bills and coupons and the UK with £9.25 Bln of Gilts, with corporate issuance also continuing at a very high pace, as long as volatility does rebound from still very high levels in equity index terms.
- China holds its delayed session of the National People's Congress with the focus on how much more there will be in fiscal terms to underpin a likely tentative rebound from Q1's contraction. UK PM Johnson takes back the reins of every day government, with the focus in the UK, Europe and North America on what measures to gradually and tentatively ease some lockdown measures will be taken, above all given the risks of a resurgence in infection rates. Markets will continue to hope for better news on vaccines, immunology testing and other medical interventions to combat the worst aspects of the virus in the most severe cases, but would be well advised to rein in their animal spirits given that research remains at a very early stage, and failures will remain plentiful - solutions will eventually be found, but realistic timeframes are 1 to 2 years (and that is quite possibly optimistic).
- Corporate earnings will also be plentiful, with roughly half of all S&P 500 companies reporting, and the following (by sector) likely to be among the highlights:
Finance: Aflac, Aon, Apollo Global Management, Banco Santander, Bank of China, Barclays, Carlyle Group, CME, Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Mastercard, Royal Bank of Scotland, Sberbank, Standard Chartered, Swiss Re, UBS, Visa
Tech: Amazon, AMD, Apple, Alphabet, eBay, Facebook, LG Electronics, Microsoft, Nokia, Spotify, Qualcomm, Sirius, Samsung, Twitter, Wirecard
Industrials: 3M, Airbus, Boeing, Caterpillar, GE, General Dynamics, Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, Weyerhaeuser,
Energy :BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, Royal Dutch Shell, SolarWinds, Total, Vale.
Consumer: Adidas, Altria, Clorox, Femsa, Hasbro, McDonald’s, Molson Coors, PepsiCo, Starbucks
Transport: Daimler, Ford, Tesla, Harley-Davidson, Lufthansa, Volkswagen, UPS.
Health care: AbbVie, Bayer, Centene, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Merck, Pfizer,
Telecommunications: Charter Communications, Comcast
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Chief Economist & Global Strategist
Research
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Dentalfloss
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Broke our 2843 pivot..should be support
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Buyres need blue
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Pop..??
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Dentalfloss
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and dump...again..from our rez
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