Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 😷 😷 😷 😷 😷 
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Dentalfloss
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OIL updated
Dentalfloss
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In rez
Dentalfloss
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Updated
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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supp starts @ 2790 area
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 23 April 2020 - ADM ISI
- Disastrous France and Japan Services PMIs and as expected S. Korea Q1 GDP
to digest ahead of remaining G7 flash PMIs, UK CBI & US KC Fed surveys;
US New Home Sales also due; focus on EU budget for Coronavirus meeting;
Ukraine cut seen; plenty more corporate earnings; US T-bill & TIPS sales
- PMIs: eye watering slide in France Services PMIs sets the benchmark for
the rest; crippling effect of shutdown all too obvious
- UK CBI survey: record slide in Business Optimism expected, though bear
in mind Q1 boosted by post-election bounce
- EU: auspices for agreement on financing Covid-19 budget remain very poor
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today is a much busier day for data with the weak but as expected South Korea Q1 prov. GDP to digest, along with today's run of G7 flash PMIs (Japan out overnight) and various national Business and Consumer Confidence surveys, and in the US Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and KC Fed Manufacturing - all of which are very much current items. Otherwise there is a further 100 bps rate cut expected in Ukraine, with NY Fed's Williams speaking on the economic and policy impact of Covid-19, following on from the ECB's overnight teleconference on accepting 'fallen angel junk debt' as collateral. Another busy day for earnings features Hyundai and Volvo in the Auto sector, while financials look to Credit Suisse, Blackstone, Invesco and E*Trade Financial, and elsewhere Eli Lilly, Hershey, Pulte Group and Union Pacific amongst others. A less busy day for govt bond auctions sees the US sell $17.0 Bln of 5-yr TIPS and another bumper volume ($160 bln) of 1 & 2-mth T-bills. But it is another likely very fractious EU meeting to discuss the financing of and likely upsizing of the package to combat the economic impact of Covid-19 that will garner most attention, with good reason to doubt whether an agreement can be reached, above all with Germany & the Netherlands still resolutely (stubbornly? Ed.) against anything that would involve debt mutualization. US Initial Claims are expected to 4.50 Mln, but as this remains many multiples above the prior record at the end of World War II, the slowing pace of job losses is nothing to take any comfort from home, and this week's data is for Payrolls survey week. But with seasonal adjustments completely shot to pieces, the read across is in effect non-existent. In market terms, oil price gyrations remain key in the short-term, with Russian Energy Minister Novak's suggestion of much larger (15-20 mln bpd) cuts in May production offering some solace yesterday; the question remains however how much damage have the spectacular gyrations done to trading books, and the extent to which this forces another instance of Gresham's Law (i.e. bad money chasing out good)
On the oil markets, and specifically USO ETF meltdown and the peculiarities of this ETF and its market impact, take a look at this via Izabella Kaminska "What's driving the USO ETF's sudden AUM growth?"
** G7 - Apr flash PMIs **
- The oil price debacle of recent days has probably taken some of the "edge" from today's PMIs, which very unsurprisingly are forecast to drop further, and in a number of cases (above all Services) more than likely post fresh all-time lows, above all in Services, where France with an eye watering 10.4, and Japan sliding to 22.8 have set the tone. But these will be more a case of grist to the mill for headline writers, than offering any particular fresh insights for markets, above all on the outlook, which remains shrouded in a rather dense fog. The same applies to French Business Confidence and the UK CBI Industrial Trends survey, though bear in mind with the latter that the Business Optimism measure is from the quarterly survey, reflected in the forecast of -53 from Q1's post general election boosted +25.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
| Inbox | x |
| 08:52 (20 minutes ago) |
|
- Disastrous France and Japan Services PMIs and as expected S. Korea Q1 GDP
to digest ahead of remaining G7 flash PMIs, UK CBI & US KC Fed surveys;
US New Home Sales also due; focus on EU budget for Coronavirus meeting;
Ukraine cut seen; plenty more corporate earnings; US T-bill & TIPS sales
- PMIs: eye watering slide in France Services PMIs sets the benchmark for
the rest; crippling effect of shutdown all too obvious
- UK CBI survey: record slide in Business Optimism expected, though bear
in mind Q1 boosted by post-election bounce
- EU: auspices for agreement on financing Covid-19 budget remain very poor
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today is a much busier day for data with the weak but as expected South Korea Q1 prov. GDP to digest, along with today's run of G7 flash PMIs (Japan out overnight) and various national Business and Consumer Confidence surveys, and in the US Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and KC Fed Manufacturing - all of which are very much current items. Otherwise there is a further 100 bps rate cut expected in Ukraine, with NY Fed's Williams speaking on the economic and policy impact of Covid-19, following on from the ECB's overnight teleconference on accepting 'fallen angel junk debt' as collateral. Another busy day for earnings features Hyundai and Volvo in the Auto sector, while financials look to Credit Suisse, Blackstone, Invesco and E*Trade Financial, and elsewhere Eli Lilly, Hershey, Pulte Group and Union Pacific amongst others. A less busy day for govt bond auctions sees the US sell $17.0 Bln of 5-yr TIPS and another bumper volume ($160 bln) of 1 & 2-mth T-bills. But it is another likely very fractious EU meeting to discuss the financing of and likely upsizing of the package to combat the economic impact of Covid-19 that will garner most attention, with good reason to doubt whether an agreement can be reached, above all with Germany & the Netherlands still resolutely (stubbornly? Ed.) against anything that would involve debt mutualization. US Initial Claims are expected to 4.50 Mln, but as this remains many multiples above the prior record at the end of World War II, the slowing pace of job losses is nothing to take any comfort from home, and this week's data is for Payrolls survey week. But with seasonal adjustments completely shot to pieces, the read across is in effect non-existent. In market terms, oil price gyrations remain key in the short-term, with Russian Energy Minister Novak's suggestion of much larger (15-20 mln bpd) cuts in May production offering some solace yesterday; the question remains however how much damage have the spectacular gyrations done to trading books, and the extent to which this forces another instance of Gresham's Law (i.e. bad money chasing out good)
On the oil markets, and specifically USO ETF meltdown and the peculiarities of this ETF and its market impact, take a look at this via Izabella Kaminska "What's driving the USO ETF's sudden AUM growth?"
** G7 - Apr flash PMIs **
- The oil price debacle of recent days has probably taken some of the "edge" from today's PMIs, which very unsurprisingly are forecast to drop further, and in a number of cases (above all Services) more than likely post fresh all-time lows, above all in Services, where France with an eye watering 10.4, and Japan sliding to 22.8 have set the tone. But these will be more a case of grist to the mill for headline writers, than offering any particular fresh insights for markets, above all on the outlook, which remains shrouded in a rather dense fog. The same applies to French Business Confidence and the UK CBI Industrial Trends survey, though bear in mind with the latter that the Business Optimism measure is from the quarterly survey, reflected in the forecast of -53 from Q1's post general election boosted +25.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
Dentalfloss
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UK's DMO to issue record £180 Bln in debt in May-July period - some initial thoughts
- UK's DMO to issue record £180 Bln in debt in May-July period - some initial thoughts
£180 Bln of issuance in the May to July period is eye watering on the one hand, but unsurprising given all the spending measures to combat Covid-19, and certainly present a demand challenge, though the BoE's QE purchases will offer considerable alleviation. The question for a market that is smaller (but not small) than USD and EUR markets, with greater reliance on domestic demand, is whether this crowds out corporate borrowers. I assume much of the issuance will continue to be front end (out to 7 years), which would suggest some modest steepening of this part of the curve. It is also likely to prompt quite a bit more intra-day volatility, contingent on BoE purchases and DMO issuance timing. I would also expect the DMO to do more in the way of syndicated issuance, and interesting to see if any is non-GBP (i.e. not BoE, but UK sovereign). As the attached chart of UK govt debt maturities highlights, there is already a lot of debt to refinance in coming years, and this will only add to financing pressures for years to come.
The other question is with so much being spent on combatting the impact of Coronavirus, what will be 'left' to offset any negative impacts from Brexit. This is all the more the case given that the supply chain disruptions and changes as a consequence of both will be extremely profound, and in many senses it behoves the UK government to take a rather less 'fundamentalist' stance in negotiations with the EU, which itself faces risks to its very existence, as exemplified by the deep divisions on how the measures it has in principle agreed to undertake to combat the economic impact of Covid-19 will be funded. The fact is neither side in these negotiations can afford to drop the proverbial ball, and with economic nationalism 'on the march', the risk of mis-steps are very high.
| Inbox | x |
| 09:32 (3 minutes ago) |
|
- UK's DMO to issue record £180 Bln in debt in May-July period - some initial thoughts
£180 Bln of issuance in the May to July period is eye watering on the one hand, but unsurprising given all the spending measures to combat Covid-19, and certainly present a demand challenge, though the BoE's QE purchases will offer considerable alleviation. The question for a market that is smaller (but not small) than USD and EUR markets, with greater reliance on domestic demand, is whether this crowds out corporate borrowers. I assume much of the issuance will continue to be front end (out to 7 years), which would suggest some modest steepening of this part of the curve. It is also likely to prompt quite a bit more intra-day volatility, contingent on BoE purchases and DMO issuance timing. I would also expect the DMO to do more in the way of syndicated issuance, and interesting to see if any is non-GBP (i.e. not BoE, but UK sovereign). As the attached chart of UK govt debt maturities highlights, there is already a lot of debt to refinance in coming years, and this will only add to financing pressures for years to come.
The other question is with so much being spent on combatting the impact of Coronavirus, what will be 'left' to offset any negative impacts from Brexit. This is all the more the case given that the supply chain disruptions and changes as a consequence of both will be extremely profound, and in many senses it behoves the UK government to take a rather less 'fundamentalist' stance in negotiations with the EU, which itself faces risks to its very existence, as exemplified by the deep divisions on how the measures it has in principle agreed to undertake to combat the economic impact of Covid-19 will be funded. The fact is neither side in these negotiations can afford to drop the proverbial ball, and with economic nationalism 'on the march', the risk of mis-steps are very high.
Dentalfloss
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bounce from our supp
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Morning Dentist!
Stopped out yesterday for a 30 pips loss on that one. Now looking to see whether it's worth a long where we are 80 pips lower
