Trading with point and figure

[cantagril]

🤪🤬😢🍷🍷🍷🍷

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

thats what we mean by A bad bounce

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks 😍😍😘🤪🤪🤭🤭🤭

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow updated
Gettin dangerous

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

could recoil to test trend rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

Into the open

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

will supp hold.?

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

a tad messy

 

[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 2 April 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

08:34 (2 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Quieter day for data, focus on US weekly jobless claims; oil market hones
in Trump comments on Saudi / Russia talks, and US oil CEO meeting at WH;
busier day for debt sales: UK, France, Spain and large bill sales from US

- Unemployment: further outsized record rise in US weekly jobless claims,
also surging elsewhere

- Oil: Trump comments relief, but do not change immediate output / demand
prospects

- Tables: WTI Oil Contract table and 90 day price chart, Americas crude
prices

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As is quite often the case, the second working day of the month has a meagre schedule of data, which would in any case be largely ignored at the current juncture, with the US weekly jobless claims likely to be the highlight of the day. A busier day for govt bond supply sees France and Spain both hold multi-maturity auctions, while the UK sells 2041 Gilts, and the US offers 4 & 8 week T-Bill and a 154 Day Cash Management Bill, as it ramps up borrowing to cover its $2.0 Trln Covid-19 package of fiscal measures. As suggested yesterday, the US weekly jobless claims are more 'real time' than either the 'better than expected' ADP Employment yesterday or tomorrow's Payrolls. A further seismic rise of 3.50 Mln is expected following last week's record 3.283 Mln - and as a reminder and a perspective point the prior record rise was 695K back in 1982. As a further perspective, the range of forecasts for this week is 1.5 Mln to 5.25 Mln! Elsewhere Canada has seen a surge of around 2.0 Mln in unemployment benefit claims, and the UK has seen about 1.0 mln apply for Universal Credit (not exclusively a measure of unemployment claims), while Spain has just reported a 9.31% m/m rise (>300K) in Unemployment during March.

Oil markets are getting some relief from the very unspecific comments from Trump both about US/Russia/Saudi talks on oil prices, and probably even more his scheduled meeting wiht oil company CEOs on Friday. As noted on Monday, given the collapse in demand for crude and product, it is difficult to see what any new agreement could actually achieve, even if this would be an improvement on the effective current all-out price war. A quick look at an updated version of Americas Crude oil prices attached, and indeed the colossal contango in the WTI futures curve should be evidence enough. Nevertheless the market is so chronically oversold and thus vulnerable to the sort of squeeze in evidence today.

In case you missed it, yesterday's BIS report "Dollar funding costs during the Covid-19 crisis through the lens of the FX swap market" is well worth a read, highlighting amongst other things, how the current set of money market woes are in many ways a function of post GFC regulations and bank capital rules, as well as the impact of long-term financial repression.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************

 

[cantagril]

Mornin' Squire,

In again 4195 TP 4230

Out at 30 +35
In again quarters - 4210 TPs 40/60/80 + trail. Stops at +5 EDIT : 35/55/75
chart 5 x 3

 

[cantagril]

Mornin' Squire,

Out at 30 +35
In again quarters - 4210
chart 5 x 3

Stopped out on 1/4 trail at 4219. 3/4 left TPs still 35/55/75...ish!