Trading with point and figure

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A quick look at the Dow

 

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Dax updated

 

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trend change

 

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in supp

 

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Dax has a wide rez area 13260-13370

 

[cantagril]

Morning all,

My stoxx is basically where I left it yesterday - i.e around 95. I'd like a few pips off it in view of the fact that my usual tipple (the Cac) performed very well and gave at least 50 pips to everyone...except me. So much for caution. Am now thinking of just getting at 3715 odd....currently just sitting on trend support.

 

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[cantagril]

View attachment 273842

Okay, okay...so I should have drawn a trend line....

 

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Dax...Quite a wide supp area
#13100-13180 area

 

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Updated

 

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SPX just gone into support
still reasonably bullish

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 31 January 2020 - ADM ISI

Inbox

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Ostwald, Marc

08:56 (16 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Coronavirus news flow still front and centre, very busy run of data to
end the month - digesting French, Spanish GDP, Japan Industrial Production,
Retail Sales & CPI; awaiting Eurozone CPI / GDP, UK credit aggregates,
India 2019 GDP estimate, Canada GDP, US PCE/Income, Q4ECI & Chicago
PMI

- US ECI: some upside risks to wage component perhaps if Atlanta Fed
proxy measure is a guide; Personal Income/PCE already pre-empted by Q4
GDP, Regional Fed surveys suggest bigger Chicago PMI bounce

- Please listen to audio preview for detailed commentary & previews
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-31-january-2020/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Please listen to the linked audio file for thoughts on the busy run of data from Japan and Eurozone overnight

Today is obviously month end, but with the complex and very uncertain twist of the evolving Coronavirus epidemic, which has unsurprisingly served to heighten volatility in nearly all asset classes, even if a longer term perspective would term current volatility levels in financial assets as being nothing out of the ordinary. Today also marks the day that the UK officially leaves the EU. Latterly the recent, often totally contradictory comments by PM Johnson and his senior cabinet colleagues about the post-Brexit landscape have given way to rather more realistic comments about the potential level of disruption to consumers and businesses. That said, there should still be plenty of concern that there is not much evidence of a strategic outline plan of what needs to be achieved between now and end of the year, other than exceptionalist 'cakeism'. But hopefully a more coherent and pragmatic strategy may emerge, even if the personnel make-up of the Cabinet, and the total disarray in the opposition do not offer much encouragement on that front.

But to enumerate on the data front, there are UK Consumer Confidence and credit / mortgage lending metrics, Eurozone Q4 GDP (downside risks due to French GDP 'miss) and January CPI (along with national readings from France, Italy & Spain), and perhaps the world's worst official statistical series, German Retail Sales (just ignore this rubbish, it will be revised sharply higher > perhaps 2.0%), to mull - though none of these look like anything more than statistical roadkill. The latter also applies to the US Personal Income & PCE data for December which have been pre-empted by the advance Q4 GDP data yesterday. Of potentially greater importance will be the preliminary estimate of India 2019 GDP, not only because of the well documented headwinds to India's economy, but also with the first coronavirus being reported yesterday in Kerala, though hopefully the evidence of limited H2H spread of the virus at non-China locations implies that this will not prove to be another major challenge for India, which also sees Dec Infrastructure Industries Output, with the hope that with flattering base effects, this returns to growth after 3 months of contraction. Otherwise there are the US Q4 Employment Cost Index & Chicago PMI, along with Canada's monthly GDP that will be a little more sensitive. The US Q4 ECI is expected to be unchanged vs. Q3 at 0.7% q/q, though as ever it is how this breaks out in terms of Wages on the one hand and other costs, with the weak Dec Average Hourly Earnings print offering support for the consensus, though there are some upside risks if the pick-up in the Atlanta Fed's adjusted Wages index to 4.1% are any guide. Regional Fed Manufacturing surveys have largely surprised on the upside, posting sharper than expected recoveries (most notably the Richmond Fed this week), though the Chicago PMI is still seen in contraction territory at 49.0 vs. December's 48.2, but this survey has a long history of major outliers and very sharp month to month changes. Last week's mixed Canada Retail Sales (weak ex-Autos) doubtless predicates expectations of a flat m/m reading for November GDP, following October's -0.1% m/m; a soft CAD amid expectations that the BoC will have to ease policy, despite its reservations against such a move due to only very limited slack in the economy, appears to discount a poor or in line outturn for today's data.

Today should also offer some insight into what happens next in the Trump impeachment trial, i.e. will witnesses be called and thus drag this out further, or not as the case may be, while next week brings the start of the presidential elections 'caucus' season in Iowa. Next week's schedule of data is very much standard fare for the first week of the month - PMIs globally, US and Canadian labour data, Chinese trade, German Orders, Industrial Production & Trade (also due in France, with Australia looking to another 'hold' from the RBA and semi-annual testimony from governor Lowe, along with Retail Sales. Please also note that I will be out of the office on Monday, so there will be not be a 'Week Ahead'.

 

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last 24 hours

 

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