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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Will it rally.?
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Mornin folks ☕ ☕ 
🤪 🤪 🤪 👄 💥 😎 🆒 👄 👄 🤪 🤪
🤪 🤪 🤪 👄 💥 😎 🆒 👄 👄 🤪 🤪
Dentalfloss
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A quick look at Dax
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change rev to 4
filter the data
better definition of trends
filter the data
better definition of trends
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spx in supp
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 1 November 2019 - ADM ISI
- PMIs and US Labour data dominate start of month schedule, plenty of Fed
Speakers, US Auto Sales and Construction Spending also due
- PMIs: manufacturing sector woes well documented, rather less cyclical
and rather more structural due to auto & telecom/tech woes - nothing to
see here?
- US Labour data: GM strike expected to hit payrolls hard, making trend
extrapolation difficult
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A new month gets under way and features Manufacturing PMIs in much of the world (though not much of continental Europe due to the All Saint's Day holiday in a number of countries), with the overnight session having seen South Korean Trade, along with CPI from Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand & Switzerland. The US labour data is the other stand out feature and is accompanied by US Auto Sales & Construction Spending and a raft of Fed speakers.
** World - October Manufacturing PMIs **
- The Manufacturing sector remains under a cloud around the world, and as much as it would be easy to blame trade tensions, above all between US & China, for most of the headwinds; the structural headwinds for the auto and telecom/tech sectors, effectively the two largest footprint sectors both in consumption and employment terms, cannot be underestimated. A cursory look at the run of overnight reports in Asia (very mixed, China Caixin better that expected but followed weak NBS PMI reading) and forecasts for European, UK and Americas PMIs merely underscores the weak profile, but this is now more than well known, and very few would try and put some 'lipstick on the pig', even if the temptation to look for an inflection point gets ever larger.
** U.S.A. - October Labour market report **
- As forecasts make abundantly clear, there is going to be a substantial drag from the GM UAW strike, with headline Payrolls seen at 85K and Private Payrolls at just 80K, with Manufacturing Payrolls expected to fall 55K due to the strike. Per se, it will be a trickier task to extrapolate about underlying trends, even though a downside surprise will doubtless set market chatterati tongues wagging about such an outturn being a 'game changer' for the Fed, after this week's rates pause signal. Be that as it may, the other metrics are forecast to show the Unemployment Rate edging up from its 50-yr low of 3.5% to 3.6%, though it is the Underemployment Rate (last 6.9%, an 18-yr low) which may be more salient, along with an expected downtick in the Labour Force Participation Rate to 63.1% from a 6-yr high of 63.2%. Average Weekly Earnings will as ever garner plenty of attention, and are expected to recover from an unexpected flat m/m reading in September to 0.3% m/m, which was the average in the summer months. But should outliers (relative to forecasts) and revisions prove to be modest, markets will likely revert their attention to US/China Trade and the impeachment inquiry.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
# Holidays: Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Ecuador, Hungary, Lithuania, Mauritius, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Slovakia & Slovenia - All Saint's Day
Sweden 10:30 Riksbank's Ingves talks about economic situation and
current monetary policy
U.S.A. 13:30 Dallas Fed's Kaplan participates in moderated Q&A at
the Rice Energy Finance Summit
16:00 NY Fed's Williams participates in Newark Anchor
Collaborative Roundtable conversation
17:00 Fed's Quarles speaks on "Friedrich Hayek and the
Price System" at Yale University
17:00 Fed's Clarida speaks on current economic trends and
monetary policy at the Japan Society
18:00 NY Fed's Williams participates in moderated Q&A on
the economy
Colombia 18:00 BanColombia Monetary Policy Meeting minutes
USA/Canada Sunday Clock go back (NY: GMT -5 hrs)
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
Australia 00:00 AUD 800 Mln 1.50% 2031 ACGB
India 09:30 INR 100 Bln total 2024, 7.69% 2043, 7.72% 2049 Govts
South Africa 11:00 Size t.b.c. 1.875% 2029, 2,25% 2038 &
2.50% 2050 I-L Govts
- Corporate Earnings:
Avanti Communications (Yr) • Danske Bank (Q3 3.42) • DSV Panalpina (Q3 6.50) • JPMorgan Mid Cap Investment Trust (Yr) • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (Q3) • Novo Nordisk (Q3 4.08) // AbbVie (Q3 $2.30) • AMAG Pharmaceuticals (Q3 $-0.66) • American Axle & Manufacturing (Q3 $0.45) • AIG (Q3 $1.00) • Buckeye Partners (Q3 $0.66) • Cheniere Energy (Q3 $0.04) • Chevron (Q3 $1.46) • Colgate-Palmolive (Q3 $0.70) • DISH Network (Q3 $0.60) • Dominion Energy (Q3 $1.1) • Exxon Mobil (Q3 $0.67) • Floor & Décor (Q3 $0.26) • LyondellBasell Industries (Q3 $2.76) • Mednax (Q3 $0.92) • Newell Brands (Q3 $0.58) • Seagate Technology (Q1 $0.99) • Sempra Energy (Q3 $1.47)
..........................................................................
******************
** TODAY'S DATA **
****************** MEDIAN
New Zealand 21:00 Oct ANZ Consumer Confidence
Australia 21:30 Oct AiG Manufacturing PMI
22:00 Oct final CBA Manufacturing PMI
23:00 Oct CoreLogic House Prices
South Korea 23:00 Oct CPI Flat (m) -0.3%
23:00 Oct Core CPI 0.6%
Japan 23:30 Sep Jobless Rate 2.2%
23:30 Sep Jobs to Applicants Ratio 1.59
South Korea 00:00 Oct Trade Balance $4.874 Bln
00:00 Oct Exports -13.6%
00:00 Oct Imports -13.7%
00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Australia 00:30 Q3 PPI
05:30 Oct RBA Commodity Prices Index (SDR)
Taiwan 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Malaysia 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Japan 00:30 Oct final Manufacturing PMI 48.5
05:00 Oct Vehicle Sales
Thailand 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
04:00 Oct CPI 0.08% (m) 0.3%
04:00 Oct Core CPI 0.43%
07:30 Oct Business Sentiment Index
Indonesia 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
----- Oct CPI 0.17% (m) 3.29%
----- Oct Core CPI 3.32%
Vietnam 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Myanmar 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Ireland 01:01 Oct Manufacturing PMI
China 01:45 Oct Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0
India 05:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Peru 05:00 Oct Lima CPI 0.12% (m) 1.9%
Russia 06:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.4
Turkey 07:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Sweden 07:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 47.0
Switzerland 07:30 Oct CPI Flat (m) Flat
07:30 Oct Core CPI 0.4%
07:30 Sep Retail Sales (real)
08:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 45.3
Norway 08:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI 50.2
09:00 Oct Unemployment Rate 2.1%
Netherlands 08:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Czech Rep. 08:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 45.0
Hong Kong 08:30 Sep Retail Sales (Value) -25.6%
08:30 Sep Retail Sales (Volume) -28.5%
Greece 09:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
South Africa 09:00 Oct ABSA Manufacturing PMI 41.8
----- Oct Naamsa Vehicle Sales -3.5%
U.K. 09:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.2
Denmark 10:00 Oct Danish PMI
Nigeria ----- Oct FBN Capital Manufacturing PMI
Brazil 11:00 Oct 31 FGV CPI IPC-S -0.05% (m)
12:00 Sep Industrial Production 0.7% (m) 1.5%
13:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
18:00 Oct Trade Balance $1.175 Bln
----- Sep CNI Capacity Utilization (SA) 78.4%
----- Oct Vehicle Sales Fenabrave
U.S.A. 12:30 Oct Non-farm Payrolls 85K
12:30 Oct Private Payrolls 80K
12:30 Oct Manufacturing Payrolls -55K
12:30 Oct Unemployment Rate 3.6%
12:30 Oct Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (m) 3.0%
12:30 Oct Average Weekly Hours 34.4
12:30 Oct Labor Force Participation Rate 63.1%
12:30 Oct Underemployment Rate
13:45 Oct final Manufacturing PMI 51.5
14:00 Oct Manufacturing ISM 49.0
14:00 Oct ISM Prices Paid 50.0
14:00 Sep Construction Spending 0.2% (m)
----- Oct Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.0 Mln
Canada 13:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Colombia 15:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
15:00 Sep Exports (FOB) $3.11 Bln
Mexico 15:30 Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI
18:00 Oct IMEF Manufacturing PMI 47.7
18:00 Oct IMEF Non-Manufacturing PMI 48.0
Italy 17:00 Oct New Car Registrations
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
4th Floor, Millennium Bridge House
2 Lam
ADMISI.COM
The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2019 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
To unsubscribe from all future emails please email ‘[email protected]' with unsubscribe in the subject.
________________________________
ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No. 2547805. ADM Investor Services International Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland (UK) Limited in the UK and indirectly, is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Archer Daniels Midland Company.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, futures, options and foreign exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. Investments in futures, options and foreign exchange entail above average risk, investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an Independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to all investors. Services may also not be available to certain customers due to legal and/or regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. The contents of this electronic mail may have been changed without the knowledge of the sender. ADM Investor Services International Limited ('ADMISI') does not, and will not, consider itself legally bound by the contents of any electronic mail which appears to have orig
...
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| Inbox | x |
| 08:34 (22 minutes ago) |
|
- PMIs and US Labour data dominate start of month schedule, plenty of Fed
Speakers, US Auto Sales and Construction Spending also due
- PMIs: manufacturing sector woes well documented, rather less cyclical
and rather more structural due to auto & telecom/tech woes - nothing to
see here?
- US Labour data: GM strike expected to hit payrolls hard, making trend
extrapolation difficult
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A new month gets under way and features Manufacturing PMIs in much of the world (though not much of continental Europe due to the All Saint's Day holiday in a number of countries), with the overnight session having seen South Korean Trade, along with CPI from Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand & Switzerland. The US labour data is the other stand out feature and is accompanied by US Auto Sales & Construction Spending and a raft of Fed speakers.
** World - October Manufacturing PMIs **
- The Manufacturing sector remains under a cloud around the world, and as much as it would be easy to blame trade tensions, above all between US & China, for most of the headwinds; the structural headwinds for the auto and telecom/tech sectors, effectively the two largest footprint sectors both in consumption and employment terms, cannot be underestimated. A cursory look at the run of overnight reports in Asia (very mixed, China Caixin better that expected but followed weak NBS PMI reading) and forecasts for European, UK and Americas PMIs merely underscores the weak profile, but this is now more than well known, and very few would try and put some 'lipstick on the pig', even if the temptation to look for an inflection point gets ever larger.
** U.S.A. - October Labour market report **
- As forecasts make abundantly clear, there is going to be a substantial drag from the GM UAW strike, with headline Payrolls seen at 85K and Private Payrolls at just 80K, with Manufacturing Payrolls expected to fall 55K due to the strike. Per se, it will be a trickier task to extrapolate about underlying trends, even though a downside surprise will doubtless set market chatterati tongues wagging about such an outturn being a 'game changer' for the Fed, after this week's rates pause signal. Be that as it may, the other metrics are forecast to show the Unemployment Rate edging up from its 50-yr low of 3.5% to 3.6%, though it is the Underemployment Rate (last 6.9%, an 18-yr low) which may be more salient, along with an expected downtick in the Labour Force Participation Rate to 63.1% from a 6-yr high of 63.2%. Average Weekly Earnings will as ever garner plenty of attention, and are expected to recover from an unexpected flat m/m reading in September to 0.3% m/m, which was the average in the summer months. But should outliers (relative to forecasts) and revisions prove to be modest, markets will likely revert their attention to US/China Trade and the impeachment inquiry.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
# Holidays: Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Croatia, Ecuador, Hungary, Lithuania, Mauritius, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Slovakia & Slovenia - All Saint's Day
Sweden 10:30 Riksbank's Ingves talks about economic situation and
current monetary policy
U.S.A. 13:30 Dallas Fed's Kaplan participates in moderated Q&A at
the Rice Energy Finance Summit
16:00 NY Fed's Williams participates in Newark Anchor
Collaborative Roundtable conversation
17:00 Fed's Quarles speaks on "Friedrich Hayek and the
Price System" at Yale University
17:00 Fed's Clarida speaks on current economic trends and
monetary policy at the Japan Society
18:00 NY Fed's Williams participates in moderated Q&A on
the economy
Colombia 18:00 BanColombia Monetary Policy Meeting minutes
USA/Canada Sunday Clock go back (NY: GMT -5 hrs)
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
Australia 00:00 AUD 800 Mln 1.50% 2031 ACGB
India 09:30 INR 100 Bln total 2024, 7.69% 2043, 7.72% 2049 Govts
South Africa 11:00 Size t.b.c. 1.875% 2029, 2,25% 2038 &
2.50% 2050 I-L Govts
- Corporate Earnings:
Avanti Communications (Yr) • Danske Bank (Q3 3.42) • DSV Panalpina (Q3 6.50) • JPMorgan Mid Cap Investment Trust (Yr) • Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (Q3) • Novo Nordisk (Q3 4.08) // AbbVie (Q3 $2.30) • AMAG Pharmaceuticals (Q3 $-0.66) • American Axle & Manufacturing (Q3 $0.45) • AIG (Q3 $1.00) • Buckeye Partners (Q3 $0.66) • Cheniere Energy (Q3 $0.04) • Chevron (Q3 $1.46) • Colgate-Palmolive (Q3 $0.70) • DISH Network (Q3 $0.60) • Dominion Energy (Q3 $1.1) • Exxon Mobil (Q3 $0.67) • Floor & Décor (Q3 $0.26) • LyondellBasell Industries (Q3 $2.76) • Mednax (Q3 $0.92) • Newell Brands (Q3 $0.58) • Seagate Technology (Q1 $0.99) • Sempra Energy (Q3 $1.47)
..........................................................................
******************
** TODAY'S DATA **
****************** MEDIAN
New Zealand 21:00 Oct ANZ Consumer Confidence
Australia 21:30 Oct AiG Manufacturing PMI
22:00 Oct final CBA Manufacturing PMI
23:00 Oct CoreLogic House Prices
South Korea 23:00 Oct CPI Flat (m) -0.3%
23:00 Oct Core CPI 0.6%
Japan 23:30 Sep Jobless Rate 2.2%
23:30 Sep Jobs to Applicants Ratio 1.59
South Korea 00:00 Oct Trade Balance $4.874 Bln
00:00 Oct Exports -13.6%
00:00 Oct Imports -13.7%
00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Australia 00:30 Q3 PPI
05:30 Oct RBA Commodity Prices Index (SDR)
Taiwan 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Malaysia 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Japan 00:30 Oct final Manufacturing PMI 48.5
05:00 Oct Vehicle Sales
Thailand 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
04:00 Oct CPI 0.08% (m) 0.3%
04:00 Oct Core CPI 0.43%
07:30 Oct Business Sentiment Index
Indonesia 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
----- Oct CPI 0.17% (m) 3.29%
----- Oct Core CPI 3.32%
Vietnam 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Myanmar 00:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Ireland 01:01 Oct Manufacturing PMI
China 01:45 Oct Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0
India 05:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Peru 05:00 Oct Lima CPI 0.12% (m) 1.9%
Russia 06:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.4
Turkey 07:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Sweden 07:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 47.0
Switzerland 07:30 Oct CPI Flat (m) Flat
07:30 Oct Core CPI 0.4%
07:30 Sep Retail Sales (real)
08:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 45.3
Norway 08:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI 50.2
09:00 Oct Unemployment Rate 2.1%
Netherlands 08:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Czech Rep. 08:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 45.0
Hong Kong 08:30 Sep Retail Sales (Value) -25.6%
08:30 Sep Retail Sales (Volume) -28.5%
Greece 09:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
South Africa 09:00 Oct ABSA Manufacturing PMI 41.8
----- Oct Naamsa Vehicle Sales -3.5%
U.K. 09:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.2
Denmark 10:00 Oct Danish PMI
Nigeria ----- Oct FBN Capital Manufacturing PMI
Brazil 11:00 Oct 31 FGV CPI IPC-S -0.05% (m)
12:00 Sep Industrial Production 0.7% (m) 1.5%
13:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
18:00 Oct Trade Balance $1.175 Bln
----- Sep CNI Capacity Utilization (SA) 78.4%
----- Oct Vehicle Sales Fenabrave
U.S.A. 12:30 Oct Non-farm Payrolls 85K
12:30 Oct Private Payrolls 80K
12:30 Oct Manufacturing Payrolls -55K
12:30 Oct Unemployment Rate 3.6%
12:30 Oct Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% (m) 3.0%
12:30 Oct Average Weekly Hours 34.4
12:30 Oct Labor Force Participation Rate 63.1%
12:30 Oct Underemployment Rate
13:45 Oct final Manufacturing PMI 51.5
14:00 Oct Manufacturing ISM 49.0
14:00 Oct ISM Prices Paid 50.0
14:00 Sep Construction Spending 0.2% (m)
----- Oct Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.0 Mln
Canada 13:30 Oct Manufacturing PMI
Colombia 15:00 Oct Manufacturing PMI
15:00 Sep Exports (FOB) $3.11 Bln
Mexico 15:30 Oct Markit Manufacturing PMI
18:00 Oct IMEF Manufacturing PMI 47.7
18:00 Oct IMEF Non-Manufacturing PMI 48.0
Italy 17:00 Oct New Car Registrations
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
4th Floor, Millennium Bridge House
2 Lam
ADMISI.COM
The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2019 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
To unsubscribe from all future emails please email ‘[email protected]' with unsubscribe in the subject.
________________________________
ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No. 2547805. ADM Investor Services International Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland (UK) Limited in the UK and indirectly, is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Archer Daniels Midland Company.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, futures, options and foreign exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. Investments in futures, options and foreign exchange entail above average risk, investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an Independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to all investors. Services may also not be available to certain customers due to legal and/or regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. The contents of this electronic mail may have been changed without the knowledge of the sender. ADM Investor Services International Limited ('ADMISI') does not, and will not, consider itself legally bound by the contents of any electronic mail which appears to have orig
...
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Dentalfloss
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Dollar...some buying
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France 40
last 48 hours
last 48 hours
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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no trend break...as yet
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Our line held
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SPX
1 box horizontal count
1 box horizontal count
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lets see
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should be in rez
no sell...as yet
no sell...as yet
