Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

as we said ...no buyers

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

stopped out
I had moved my stop and made it tight

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

Dentalfloss · Aug 5, 2019

CNY - some perspective required

Ostwald, Marc

11:28 (21 minutes ago)

to Marc

There is no doubting that the stakes have been raised sharply in the US / China trade war, but the focus on USD/CNY moving above 7.00 is a very poor bit of analysis.

These are the key aspects:

a) Trump is clearly trying to strong arm China back to the negotiating table, but his language ensures that he only exacerbates the situation - e.g. Trump says ‘US needs a better trade deal with China, not just an even deal’ – so it really does look like both sides are digging in for a protracted fight. As an aside, central banks can do precisely nothing about this, other than ‘react’ to the fall-out, and even then (regardless of ltd policy ‘ammunition) they can only apply a soothing policy salve… fiscal policy is the only antidote outside of the ‘nuclear’ military option

b) China asks state buyers to halt US farm imports, China says US accusations that China has not purchased US agriculture products are false

c) China says US stance on trade talks will cause problems with North Korea

BUT to say China is devaluing CNY is actually not true. as China/PBOC targets CFETS Index not USD/CNY, and as the chart below / attached actually underlines, the current CNY move is about USD strength above all against EUR and many Asian currencies, for example KRW & AUD, and other EM FX.