Trading with point and figure

some buying

r2lq91.png
 
Morning Mr D,

Just a guess but with thanks giving tomorrow I feel we are going to have an up day.

That's a finger in the air TA.

(y)
 
Busier day for economic data as US winds down for Thanksgiving, but
politics still front and centre: UK PSNB, US Durables, Existing Home
Sales and weekly jobless claims: EU Commission budget assessments,
May-Juncker meeting and OECD forecast update

- US Durable Goods Orders: reactive correction in defence aircraft,
core measures seen recovering, but underlying trend largely flat in
recent months

- US Existing Home Sales: modest bounce from hurricane effects seen

- Charts: GS US Financial Conditions index, WTI and Gasoline futures, VIX
USD and EUR IG and HY avg spreads, JPM EMBI spreads, Junk Bond ETF,

..........................................................................

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As US market wind down for the Thanksgiving holiday, there is a mini rush of US data accompanied by the latest UK PSNB budget data, with tonight bringing Japanese CPI. The event schedule has Italy attempting to wrest some of the attention away from the Brexit drama, as the EU Commission publishes its report on 2019 national budget proposals, and Finance Minister Tria testifies to the Italain parliament, though the meeting between May and Juncker will obviously be very closely watched. Otherwise Germany holds EUR 3.0 Bln auction of 5-yr OBLs, while the US re-opens its current 10-yr TIPS benchmark with an $11.0 Bln sale. In terms of the politics, Downing Street appeared to be keen to play down any prospect of a major announcement during or after the May-Juncker meeting, with the more pressing issues clearly being the set to between May and the DUP, and the still festering attempt to trigger a leadership contest by the hardline Tory Brexit supporters. As for Italy, Di Maio appeared to be resigned to the EU commission triggering an excessive deficit procedure, though Salvini took a more "front foot" approach suggesting that an Italian should get the EU Commissioner post for economics (cue a lot of spluttering in Berlin & Frankfurt). It was also interesting to note the comments from incoming ECB banking supervisor Enria sounding a very comabtive tone on Euro area banks dealing with NPLs, demanding a total clean up and suggesting a failure would run the risk of EMU collapsing, which will obviously ruffle a lot of fathers in his native Italy. But perhaps most attention will be on the meltdown in equity, credit and energy markets (ex-NatGas), and the renewed spike in volatility, which is tightening financial conditions above all in the US, and may well prompt the Fed to pause, and has certainly pushed heavily back on the markets' 2019 US rate trajectory.

** U.S.A. - October Durable Goods / Existing Home Sales **
- Durable Goods Orders will be the focal point for the day, with a drop in aircraft orders expected to see headline orders fall 2.6% m/m (above all defence aircraft, which surged 119.1% m/m and 20.4% m/m in prior months), while the less volatile ex-aircraft measure is seen up 0.4%. But the focus will be on Non-defence Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, after a mixed Q3 (July +1.5% m/m, August -0.2%, September -0.1%), with the consensus looking for a modest 0.2%, per se signalling CapEx has plateaued in the past 3 months, echoing the preliminary Q3 GDP sub-index. Existing Home Sales are also due, and follow the NAHB survey and Housing Starts, which exchanged roles this month in terms of the former normally being boringly steady, while latter is volatile; be that as it may, Existing Home Sales are seen up 1.0% m/m, rebounding from September's 3.4% m/m slide.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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