Dentalfloss
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no real move as yet
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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last 24 hours
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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stops tight
Dentalfloss
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in rez
stops very tight
stops very tight
Dentalfloss
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updated
Dentalfloss
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updated again
Dentalfloss
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DATA from 11pm last night
Dentalfloss
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entries were at test of trendline supp....as we marked on a previous chart
or
if you did not take that then the breakout from our 25220/aqua horizontal '2.46pm
or
if you did not take that then the breakout from our 25220/aqua horizontal '2.46pm
Dentalfloss
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last 24 hours
posted @ 2.42pm
price was testing the trendline area...
look for the first signal after that held
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pulled back and testing a pivot area now
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time for tea and biscuits
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not sure now
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UGH....what happened
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option expiry..??
or Trump
or Trump
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DOW into the open
lookin a tad bullish
plenty of overhead horizontal rez
lookin a tad bullish
plenty of overhead horizontal rez
Dentalfloss
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NAZ 100 into the open
bullish..but masses of rez
bullish..but masses of rez
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The Week Ahead - Preview: 19 to 23 November 2018
- It is safe to observe that the coming Thanksgiving Holiday week should not prove too challenging in terms of scheduled data and events, but the array of political risks and uncertainties will again have the potential to be incendiary, while oil market gyrations will also be under the microscope. 'Flash' PMIs and surveys accompanied by US Durables and a rash of housing data, Canadian and Japanese CPI and Canadian Retail Sales top the statistical run. There will be plenty of Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE speakers, a Eurogroup meeting that will discuss strengthening the Eurozone's finances as well as Italy's budget proposals, an OECD forecast update and a board meeting of India's RBI to discuss various 'bones of contention' with the government. Corporate earnings will be modest in volume terms as the Q3 season draws to a close, while the Eurozone has a busier week in govt bond auction terms with Italy, Belgium, Finland, Germany, France and Spain all holding auctions/sales, totalling around EUR 18 Bln, with the UK offering just £500 Mln of its 2056 I-L Gilt, and the US sells some $122 Bln of Bills and $11 Bln of the current 10yr benchmark TIPS. While Italy's budget stand-off with the EU is clearly a focal point for fixed income, it is the credit space (IG, HY and EM) which requires particular attention with US taxable bond funds continuing to see outflows, after a record outflow in October according to Lipper data. For some thoughts on this, please see this video from Friday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJT5WI6HhCw&feature=youtu.be
- Statistically, Durable Goods Orders top the modest run of US data, with a drop in aircraft orders set to weigh on headline (above all defence that surged 119.1% m/m and 20.4% m/m in prior months), with the less volatile ex-aircraft measure seen up 0.4%. But the focus will be on Non-defence Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, after a mixed Q3 (July +1.5% m/m, August -0.2%, September -0.1%), with the consensus looking for a modest 0.3%, per se signalling CapEx has plateaued in the past 3 months, echoing the preliminary Q3 GDP sub-index. Housing data will be plentiful, though the usual reminder that housing investment remains a shadow of what it was in the previous decade, and per se not a meaningful short-term risk. Be that as it May the NAHB Housing Index is seen edging down a point to a still solid 67, while Housing Starts will remain 'noisy' thanks to the impact of the hurricanes, with a 2.4% m/m bounce expected after September's -5.3%., and Existing Home Sales are forecast to rebound 1.0% from September's 3.4% m/m slide. Projections for the run of 'flash' PMIs are as ever largely rather agnostic, with the existing divergence in Manufacturing between the US (seen at 55.8) and the rest of the G7 (Germany exp. 52.2, France 51.3, Eurozone 52.0) expected to be re-affirmed, though a broadly solid picture seen for Services (USA 55.0, Germany 54.5, France 55.0, Eurozone 53.6); there are also various national confidence surveys due across Europe. The rest of the schedule looks unlikely to generate much interest, barring some sharp outliers, with Japanese CPI readings seen holding at 1.4% y/y headline and a still very lowly 0.4% y/y ex-Fresh Food & Energy, while Canadian CPI has been very steady for most of 2018, with headline seen at 2.2% y/y (unch) and the various core measures around 2.0%. By contrast Canada's Retail Sales have been rather more volatile, but are projected to be unchanged m/m in headline terms, but up 0.3% excluding Autos after dropping 0.4% m/m in August. South African CPI is the other item of note, with headline seen edging up to 5.1% y/y from 4.9% and core CPI to 4.3% from 4.2%, which may just tip the scales to rate hike when the SARB meets this week, above all given a very close 4-3 vote to hold rates at 6.50% at its last meeting, and a rather hawkish tone from governor Kganyago. UK PSNB, German PPI and detailed breakdown of that Q3 GDP contraction, a busy week for Polish labour market and activity data, and Mexico's mid-month CPI are the other items of note on the data calendar. Friday's post Thanksgiving Black Friday retail 'bonanza' will be the other closely watched event.
- Fed and ECB speakers are reasonably plentiful, and will be watched very carefully, as recent Fed speak has erred to acknowledging potential headwinds from the strength of the USD and incipient weakness internationally, despite emphasizing robust US growth and a tight labour market, while Draghi's hint that CPI forecasts could be revised (lower) adds to the impression that the timing of an initial rate hike looks to be a case of later rather than sooner. Carney and various BOE MPC members will testify on the latest Inflation Report this week, but with the furious political drama around Brexit, there is little that the BoE can do or say, other than wait and see how the dust settles. Given the rather woe begotten state of India's financial sector, beset by scandals (PNB), the collapse of infrastructure lender IL&FS and the very levels of bad/non-performing loans, Monday's RBI board meeting to discuss numerous areas of contention with the Modi government will be very closely watched, amid speculation about the future of RBI governor Patel, and weekend comments from Finance Minister Jaitley. The latter said: "We need a certain level of flow as far as our entrepreneurs are concerned". "We will restore discipline in the banking system and, at the same time, will ensure that we don't end up throttling growth by throttling credit." Most of which will require a more co-operative approach with the RBI.
- It is probably moot to offer any view on whether the Brexit or the Italian budget drama is a greater a material threat to financial markets in the near-term, particularly as the outcome of the former is shrouded in fog, and has so many key events in coming weeks (see the BBC's roadmap graphic), while the latter has the added piquancy of a key Eurogroup meeting this week to discuss the Franco-German proposals to strengthen EMU. If the barbed exchanges between China and the US at the very confrontational and deeply divided APEC meeting are any guide, the prospects for any near term ebbing of US China trade tensions, let alone achieving some form of accord at the month ending G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, look to be very remote, even if Trump's sharp mood swings and often deluded and/or fact free evaluations always lend an element of 'anything can happen'. Last but certainly not least, the US is due to announce its report on the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi this week, and there will be plenty of interest of how this plays into the complex interface with sanctions on Iran, and OPEC+'s early December meeting to decide on oil production targets for H1 2019.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
- It is safe to observe that the coming Thanksgiving Holiday week should not prove too challenging in terms of scheduled data and events, but the array of political risks and uncertainties will again have the potential to be incendiary, while oil market gyrations will also be under the microscope. 'Flash' PMIs and surveys accompanied by US Durables and a rash of housing data, Canadian and Japanese CPI and Canadian Retail Sales top the statistical run. There will be plenty of Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE speakers, a Eurogroup meeting that will discuss strengthening the Eurozone's finances as well as Italy's budget proposals, an OECD forecast update and a board meeting of India's RBI to discuss various 'bones of contention' with the government. Corporate earnings will be modest in volume terms as the Q3 season draws to a close, while the Eurozone has a busier week in govt bond auction terms with Italy, Belgium, Finland, Germany, France and Spain all holding auctions/sales, totalling around EUR 18 Bln, with the UK offering just £500 Mln of its 2056 I-L Gilt, and the US sells some $122 Bln of Bills and $11 Bln of the current 10yr benchmark TIPS. While Italy's budget stand-off with the EU is clearly a focal point for fixed income, it is the credit space (IG, HY and EM) which requires particular attention with US taxable bond funds continuing to see outflows, after a record outflow in October according to Lipper data. For some thoughts on this, please see this video from Friday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJT5WI6HhCw&feature=youtu.be
- Statistically, Durable Goods Orders top the modest run of US data, with a drop in aircraft orders set to weigh on headline (above all defence that surged 119.1% m/m and 20.4% m/m in prior months), with the less volatile ex-aircraft measure seen up 0.4%. But the focus will be on Non-defence Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, after a mixed Q3 (July +1.5% m/m, August -0.2%, September -0.1%), with the consensus looking for a modest 0.3%, per se signalling CapEx has plateaued in the past 3 months, echoing the preliminary Q3 GDP sub-index. Housing data will be plentiful, though the usual reminder that housing investment remains a shadow of what it was in the previous decade, and per se not a meaningful short-term risk. Be that as it May the NAHB Housing Index is seen edging down a point to a still solid 67, while Housing Starts will remain 'noisy' thanks to the impact of the hurricanes, with a 2.4% m/m bounce expected after September's -5.3%., and Existing Home Sales are forecast to rebound 1.0% from September's 3.4% m/m slide. Projections for the run of 'flash' PMIs are as ever largely rather agnostic, with the existing divergence in Manufacturing between the US (seen at 55.8) and the rest of the G7 (Germany exp. 52.2, France 51.3, Eurozone 52.0) expected to be re-affirmed, though a broadly solid picture seen for Services (USA 55.0, Germany 54.5, France 55.0, Eurozone 53.6); there are also various national confidence surveys due across Europe. The rest of the schedule looks unlikely to generate much interest, barring some sharp outliers, with Japanese CPI readings seen holding at 1.4% y/y headline and a still very lowly 0.4% y/y ex-Fresh Food & Energy, while Canadian CPI has been very steady for most of 2018, with headline seen at 2.2% y/y (unch) and the various core measures around 2.0%. By contrast Canada's Retail Sales have been rather more volatile, but are projected to be unchanged m/m in headline terms, but up 0.3% excluding Autos after dropping 0.4% m/m in August. South African CPI is the other item of note, with headline seen edging up to 5.1% y/y from 4.9% and core CPI to 4.3% from 4.2%, which may just tip the scales to rate hike when the SARB meets this week, above all given a very close 4-3 vote to hold rates at 6.50% at its last meeting, and a rather hawkish tone from governor Kganyago. UK PSNB, German PPI and detailed breakdown of that Q3 GDP contraction, a busy week for Polish labour market and activity data, and Mexico's mid-month CPI are the other items of note on the data calendar. Friday's post Thanksgiving Black Friday retail 'bonanza' will be the other closely watched event.
- Fed and ECB speakers are reasonably plentiful, and will be watched very carefully, as recent Fed speak has erred to acknowledging potential headwinds from the strength of the USD and incipient weakness internationally, despite emphasizing robust US growth and a tight labour market, while Draghi's hint that CPI forecasts could be revised (lower) adds to the impression that the timing of an initial rate hike looks to be a case of later rather than sooner. Carney and various BOE MPC members will testify on the latest Inflation Report this week, but with the furious political drama around Brexit, there is little that the BoE can do or say, other than wait and see how the dust settles. Given the rather woe begotten state of India's financial sector, beset by scandals (PNB), the collapse of infrastructure lender IL&FS and the very levels of bad/non-performing loans, Monday's RBI board meeting to discuss numerous areas of contention with the Modi government will be very closely watched, amid speculation about the future of RBI governor Patel, and weekend comments from Finance Minister Jaitley. The latter said: "We need a certain level of flow as far as our entrepreneurs are concerned". "We will restore discipline in the banking system and, at the same time, will ensure that we don't end up throttling growth by throttling credit." Most of which will require a more co-operative approach with the RBI.
- It is probably moot to offer any view on whether the Brexit or the Italian budget drama is a greater a material threat to financial markets in the near-term, particularly as the outcome of the former is shrouded in fog, and has so many key events in coming weeks (see the BBC's roadmap graphic), while the latter has the added piquancy of a key Eurogroup meeting this week to discuss the Franco-German proposals to strengthen EMU. If the barbed exchanges between China and the US at the very confrontational and deeply divided APEC meeting are any guide, the prospects for any near term ebbing of US China trade tensions, let alone achieving some form of accord at the month ending G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, look to be very remote, even if Trump's sharp mood swings and often deluded and/or fact free evaluations always lend an element of 'anything can happen'. Last but certainly not least, the US is due to announce its report on the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi this week, and there will be plenty of interest of how this plays into the complex interface with sanctions on Iran, and OPEC+'s early December meeting to decide on oil production targets for H1 2019.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
