Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Haha

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax into the open
can that uptrend be maintained..??

11500 area is test of trend

 

[Dentalfloss]

DXY bounced off our pivot area
will that red be rez ..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable

 

[Dentalfloss]

VIx

 

[jeffre4]

Apparently once the dust settles on the US mid term elections no matter who wins stocks rally significantly This occurred the previous 18 mid term elections

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks

 

[Dentalfloss]

Apparently once the dust settles on the US mid term elections no matter who wins stocks rally significantly This occurred the previous 18 mid term elections

Good point......
Dont take a bias
Just take the signals on the chart

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax into the open
can that uptrend be maintained..??

11500 area is test of trend

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

lookin like a break of trend and into a consolidation

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow into the open

 

[Dentalfloss]

we have a horizontal pivot area marked for support
do we stay under that uptrend line..?? on the bounce
uptrend is broken

 

[Dentalfloss]

FTSE

 

[Dentalfloss]

does any bounce from that pivot stay under the trendline..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dollar

 

[Dentalfloss]

Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:34 (23 minutes ago)
to Marc

- Services PMIs (except continental Europe) dominate data schedule, but
complex array of political and trade related influences set to remain
key; BoJ, ECB, BoC & Norges Bank also on hand; China Import Expo;
further rash of corporate earnings

- Services PMIs: China diverges sharply with Japan & India; UK seen edging
down, but still quite solid in face of Brexit challenges; US Non-
manufacturing expected to mirror Manufacturing drop... but still solid

- Politics: Brexit deal optimism requires domestic and European reality
check

- Charts: G-3 3-mth currency basis swaps; US Consumer Prices; IMM COT
positions; Wall Street and Washington

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

While non Eurozone Services PMIs (see week ahead preview below) dominate the day's schedule, this is a week with a lot of proverbial moving parts, which will keep markets very choppy at least until tomorrow's US mid-term elections have passed. The run of Services out of Asia were very divergent, with the China Caixin reading sliding, while Japan and India rebounded sharply. However this is to a certain extent subordinate to the hither and thither on prospects for a US China trade deal, Brexit news flow, and the headlines that come out of the annual China Imports Expo and Internet conferences, and then there are the CDU and SPD conferences that will go a long way to deciding the succession to Merkel, and the shelf life of the grand coalition. The latter also highlights the threats to the existential issues for the Eurozone & EU, Merkel has in fact a been a very poor Chancellor, failing on all fronts in terms of so many much needed domestic reforms, though she was what the German general public's innate tendency to complacent small 'c' conservatism (a variation on 'if it's not broke, don't fix with an added dose of very irritating smugness), but completely dropped the ball with her moves on immigration in 2015/2016 (and to an extent the totally inept management of the energy transition), and at that point the smug self-satisfied complacency of the German public was unseated. Nevertheless, that public is still very much for preserving the status quo, or in this case the prior status quo. Look across the Rhine to France, and Macron's approval has plummeted to just 18%, once again victim of a French public that yearns for change and reform, but under no circumstances accepting that there would be transition period that would entail sacrifices. Now look at Italy, where the approval rating of the self-contradictory M5S / League coalition is higher than all of the past six governments, on the still very live hope for change after years of stasis and decline, even if the reforms proposed by this coalition are anything but a panacea for Italy's many structural issues, indeed could prove to force a crisis that proves to be cataclysmic for Italy and the EU, in very sharp contrast to prior crises, where the cliché 'It will be alright on the night' has been a useful prism for analyses. This should serve as a reminder for all the market hope being attached to any Brexit negotiation newsflow that suggest a positive or at least relatively smooth outcome. Yet the report at the weekend essentially kicks the can once again on the Irish border issues, and in many ways is the sort of compromise which all the divergent interests in the UK parliament will more than likely be unsatisfied with. Thus this reminder, whatever deal is agreed (if one is agreed) still has to be approved by parliament, and then by the 27 national parliaments and a few regional parliaments in the EU; caution should as such as be the watchword. Talking of unpopular leaders, a very close eye needs to be kept on Russia, where Putin's popularity has slid sharply, almost to the record low of 2013, just before the Crimea was annexed.

RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview: 05 to 09 November 2018

The US mid-term elections will probably be the most closely watched event in the week ahead, and is accompanied by a modest US data schedule, a no press conference Fed meeting and another raft of earnings (see calendar section). The UK, Eurozone and Japan have a much busier data schedule including provisional UK Q3 GDP, German and Japanese Orders, Chinese trade and inflation, as well as plenty of European & Asian earnings. Brexit negotiations, US China trade tensions, the ongoing saga around the Italian budget, the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran as of Monday, and a three way meeting between Macron, Trump and Putin will provide the political mood music. The US tops the govt auction schedule with a total of $180 Bln of T-bills and $83 Bln of coupons (3, 10 & 30-yr), while the Eurozone sees ca. EUR 17 Bln total of bond auctions from Germany, France and Spain, but unlike October which saw EUR 108 Bln of redemption money, there are no major redemptions in November until the final week of the month.

- Polls appear to suggest that the Democrats will take control of the US House of Representatives, while the Republicans are expected to hold onto the Senate, but with a lot of first time voters (not just youngsters, but also previously unregistered), whose intentions pollsters struggle to capture, surprises are more than possible. The key battlegrounds that will likely offer a reasonably early signal about whether there is going to be a 'blue wave' (i.e. a swing to the Democrats) are seen in Kentucky's 6th district, Florida, North Carolina, New York's 22nd District and all of the seats in suburban Philadelphia. According to some surveys, many fund managers do not see the mid-term elections as a major event, but that might well prove to be rather too complacent, above all given that the 'i' word (impeachment) could become an issue if the Democrats were to achieve substantial gains in the House. An eye also needs to be kept on German politics, with both of the grand coalition parties holding major conferences this week, with the CDU girding itself for the start of December vote on who will succeed Merkel as party leader (Friedrich Merz is emerging as the front runner, with Schaeuble endorsing him on Friday). Meanwhile the SPD will commence another debate on whether it should remain in the grand coalition, after the recent drubbing in the Bavarian and Hesse state elections.

- Services PMIs & Non-Manufacturing ISM dominate the start of the week, with the US ISM seen mirroring the Manufacturing survey with a substantial back from 61.6 to a still robust 59.0, while the UK Services is also seen following the Manufacturing PMI lower to 53.3 from 53.9, despite the unexpected pick-up in the Construction PMI. China's Caixin Services PMI is seen modestly lower at 52.8, in line with the official NBS reading. Eurozone PMIs are expected to confirm the weaker than expected 'flash' prints.

- US PPI is the only first division item of data in the US, though if forecasts of 0.3% m/m for an unchanged 2.6% y/y headline and 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y (vs prior 2.5%) on core PPI are correct, then this is not likely to be a market mover, with JOLTS Job Openings seen close to August's all time record (7.136 Mln) and provisional Michigan Sentiment the only other items of note.

While the usual caveat that all UK data is effectively totally subordinate to Brexit developments, there will still be some sensitivity to the raft of activity data that is on hand. Q3 GDP is forecast to be a very 'perky' 0.6% q/q, which would push the y/y rate back up to 1.5%, i.e. the BoE's assumed potential rate of growth for the UK. However, as we have stressed, the story for the UK economy in Q3 was a strong start that had fizzled out almost completely by the end of the quarter, indeed monthly GDP and the Index of Services for September are seen at just 0.1% m/m after flat readings in August. Q3 Business Investment is very unsurprisingly forecast to have been unchanged q/q, which would be an improvement on Q2@s -0.7%. Having fallen 0.2% m/m and 0.7% m/m respectively in August, Manufacturing Output and Construction Output are forecast to eke out gains of 0.1% m/m in September, while the BRC's like for like Retail Sales is expected to rebound modestly to +0.5% y/y after falling 0.2% in September. The RICS House Price Balance is not seen offering any comfort for the housing sector with an unchanged -2, though still above April's low of -8. As for Trade, a very modestly wider Visible deficit of £-11.4 Bln is forecast, with the total balance also seen slightly wider at £-1.5 Bln, though for Q3 as a whole Net Exports are projected to have made a solid contribution to Q3 GDP (Exports +2.8% q/q, Imports 0.6% q/q), though this follows a substantial drag in Q2.

Elsewhere the 2.0% m/m rebound in German Factory Orders in August, having fallen in 6 of the prior 7 months is expected to have been nothing more than a blip, with September expected to post a modest 0.5% m/m drop, with the accompanying erosion of Order Backlogs through this year, above all in Capital Goods, expected to weigh on Industrial Production that is seen down 0.1% m/m after falling 0.3% m/m in August. All of which suggests that Q3 GDP due on 14 November will be little better than 0.2% q/q, and leaves a lot of questions around the Bundesbank's assertion that the summer slowdown was transitory and primarily concentrated in the Auto sector and its long supply chain. Trade data are projected to show exports eking out another modest gain of 0.3% m/m, with Imports rebounding 0.8% m/m after sliding 2.4% in August. The concern that the Eurozone's so-called engine of growth is stalling will as such remain. Over in Japan, the super volatile Machinery Orders is expected to post a sharp 9.0% m/m decline, but this follows gains of 11.0% and 6.8% m/m in July & August, and still indicating a solid profile to Business CapEx for Q3. The other item of note in Japan will be Labour Cash Earnings (wages) which are forecast to post a 1.1% y/y rise in nominal terms (vs. Aug 0.8%), but remain in negative territory in real terms at -0.3% vs. August -0.7%. Japan also has its Economy Watchers (services) survey, while Australia looks to Housing Finance, and next Thursday sees Chinese trade data, while China's CPI and PPI are due on Friday. Indonesia publishes Q3 GDP on Monday, and Norway has its CPI and PPI data.

- On the central bank front, the Fed is seen on hold at this meeting, and will likely offer a strong hint that rates will rise again in December, though there are many market participants wondering if the recent tightening of financial conditions may, if sustained, prompt the Fed to pause in the not too distant future. It will likely remain upbeat on the economy and the labour market, and sanguine on the inflation outlook; the question is then whether it offers comment on trade tensions and international developments, which the FOMC statements have largely eschewed. The RBA and RBNZ also meet this week with both expected to hold rates at 1.50% and 1.75% respectively, and both will be updating their outlooks. The RBA will stick with a very neutral policy outlook, stressing that while growth has been solid, the inflation outlook remains subdued, wage growth weak and underline the continued sensitivity to the weakening housing market. The RBNZ shifted to a neutral stance in August, suggesting that the next move could be up or down, and while Q2 GDP picked up, much of that was down to government spending, and was stil below the RBNZ's assumption that the potential growth rate is just above 3.0%; NZ inflation is around the 2.0% midpoint of its target range, and wage growth (also due this week) remain tepid in real terms. The fact that the NZ economy is very heavily exposed to demand from China, and by extension to the continued China/US trade tensions, the RBNZ will doubtless stick to its neutral outlook. Malaysia's BNM also meets this week, and is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.25%. There is a long list of ECB speakers, including Coeure and Praet, the BoJ publishes September meeting minutes, and the summary of opinions from the October meeting.


from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax into the open
can that uptrend be maintained..??

11500 area is test of trend

11500 held

 

[Dentalfloss]

updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

price in a triangle
coiling for a pop