Dentalfloss
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yes sir....and a tad more
Trading with point and figure
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yes sir....and a tad more
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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DAX
recoil or dump..??
recoil or dump..??
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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updated
Dentalfloss
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decent 100 pointer from our 11574 rez...without the scalps
time for a break
time for a break
Dentalfloss
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Yu need to be ready at both ends
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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Overnight trade deal.....possibly
puts NFP on the sidelines
gotta recalibrate all charts now
puts NFP on the sidelines
gotta recalibrate all charts now
Dentalfloss
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Dow
counter_violent
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Helluvarun, around 50% retrace of the recent down moves.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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yes...a great run
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:23 (36 minutes ago)
to Marc
- All eyes on US labour report, but also on next week's mid-term elections,
US and Canada Trade, Canada Unemployment and residual PMIs in Europe,
little in the way of events, though some big hitter corporate earnings
- US Payrolls seen rebounding from hurricane dampened September, ISM
suggests a miss on Manufacturing Payrolls, but overall very robust
- US Average Hourly Earnings: modest m/m dip expected, yr/yr to be
boosted by big base effect
- Watch the CNY !
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Another choppy week in markets ends with the US labour market report dominating the schedule, though many will have half any eye on next week's mid-term elections, which could prove to be the key event of the current quarter. Outside of these, there are the Australian Retail Sales to digest, the residual Manufacturing PMIs for the countries which were closed yesterday for All Saints Day, as well as Canadian labour and trade data, with the US also seeing Trade and the frequently ignored Factory Orders. The events schedule is very sparse with only BoE's Tenreyro scheduled to speak, while another busy week for corporate earnings ends with reports from Alibaba, Berkshire Hathaway, Chevron and Exxon Mobil amongst others. N.B. Clocks will go back one hour in North America over the weekend. Our other focal point will be the FX market above all the CNY, which has seen a monumental squeeze since yesterday morning, above all in the 1-yr NDF, which trade as low as 7.0670 in Asian hours yesterday, and is now at 6.9460 with spot CNY at 6.8925.
** U.S.A. - October Labour data **
- There is the usual familiar look to the consensus forecast for Payrolls of 200K, being pitched slightly above the recent average primarily due to the assumption that last month's 'weak' 134K gain was primarily a function of hurricane effects, with the strength of the ADP report earlier (+227K) reinforcing that view, despite the obvious caveat that the read across from ADP to Payrolls has been rather poor this year (as evidenced by September's much higher ADP at 218k, even in revision. All the anecdotal evidence continues to point to still very strong labour demand, even if yesterday's Manufacturing ISM did suggest that there has been some loss of momentum, above all related to trade tensions, with a number of respondents also noting that freshly minted USMCA is of no help to the manufacturing sector, as the steel and aluminium tariffs remain in place, per se implying a little downside risk to expectations of a solid 16k rise in Manufacturing Payrolls. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding at its 49-year low of 3.7%, but most attention as ever will focus on Average Hourly Earnings with the month on month pace seen at a modest 0.2% after three successive rises of 0.3%; however with a weather related -0.2% from October 2017 falling out of the comparison, the y/y rate would then tick up to a new cyclical high of 3.1%, though obviously not really suggesting a sustained uptick in wage inflation. Average Weekly Hours are seen at their cyclical high at 34.5, with the still strong ISM Production sub-index suggesting that Manufacturing hours should remain high. The Trade data will be largely of academic interest, with a marginally wider deficit of $-53.6 Bln basically mirroring the already published Goods trade data, though potentially of interest if there are any bigger revisions that would lead to a revision to Q3 GDP, as was the case with the sharp upward revision to Aug Construction Spending yesterday to 0.8% m/m from a previously reported and very anaemic 0.1%.
** Canada - October Unemployment **
- While markets are discounting the next BOC rate hike in January, rather than at the December 5th meeting, and there will a lot more data between now and then, today's labour data will still be sensitive. As usual a modest though solid 15K rise in Employment is expected, after a very noisy 63.3K rise in September, which was deceptive as it was all Part-time Employment, and Full-time Employment actually fell 16.9K, but is expected to post a 20K rise this month. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 5.9%, around the level it has been for all of this year, while Wages are seen edging back up to 2.3% y/y from 2.2%, but well off the base effect related levels seen earlier in the year.
from Marc Ostwald
Attachments
08:23 (36 minutes ago)
to Marc
- All eyes on US labour report, but also on next week's mid-term elections,
US and Canada Trade, Canada Unemployment and residual PMIs in Europe,
little in the way of events, though some big hitter corporate earnings
- US Payrolls seen rebounding from hurricane dampened September, ISM
suggests a miss on Manufacturing Payrolls, but overall very robust
- US Average Hourly Earnings: modest m/m dip expected, yr/yr to be
boosted by big base effect
- Watch the CNY !
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Another choppy week in markets ends with the US labour market report dominating the schedule, though many will have half any eye on next week's mid-term elections, which could prove to be the key event of the current quarter. Outside of these, there are the Australian Retail Sales to digest, the residual Manufacturing PMIs for the countries which were closed yesterday for All Saints Day, as well as Canadian labour and trade data, with the US also seeing Trade and the frequently ignored Factory Orders. The events schedule is very sparse with only BoE's Tenreyro scheduled to speak, while another busy week for corporate earnings ends with reports from Alibaba, Berkshire Hathaway, Chevron and Exxon Mobil amongst others. N.B. Clocks will go back one hour in North America over the weekend. Our other focal point will be the FX market above all the CNY, which has seen a monumental squeeze since yesterday morning, above all in the 1-yr NDF, which trade as low as 7.0670 in Asian hours yesterday, and is now at 6.9460 with spot CNY at 6.8925.
** U.S.A. - October Labour data **
- There is the usual familiar look to the consensus forecast for Payrolls of 200K, being pitched slightly above the recent average primarily due to the assumption that last month's 'weak' 134K gain was primarily a function of hurricane effects, with the strength of the ADP report earlier (+227K) reinforcing that view, despite the obvious caveat that the read across from ADP to Payrolls has been rather poor this year (as evidenced by September's much higher ADP at 218k, even in revision. All the anecdotal evidence continues to point to still very strong labour demand, even if yesterday's Manufacturing ISM did suggest that there has been some loss of momentum, above all related to trade tensions, with a number of respondents also noting that freshly minted USMCA is of no help to the manufacturing sector, as the steel and aluminium tariffs remain in place, per se implying a little downside risk to expectations of a solid 16k rise in Manufacturing Payrolls. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding at its 49-year low of 3.7%, but most attention as ever will focus on Average Hourly Earnings with the month on month pace seen at a modest 0.2% after three successive rises of 0.3%; however with a weather related -0.2% from October 2017 falling out of the comparison, the y/y rate would then tick up to a new cyclical high of 3.1%, though obviously not really suggesting a sustained uptick in wage inflation. Average Weekly Hours are seen at their cyclical high at 34.5, with the still strong ISM Production sub-index suggesting that Manufacturing hours should remain high. The Trade data will be largely of academic interest, with a marginally wider deficit of $-53.6 Bln basically mirroring the already published Goods trade data, though potentially of interest if there are any bigger revisions that would lead to a revision to Q3 GDP, as was the case with the sharp upward revision to Aug Construction Spending yesterday to 0.8% m/m from a previously reported and very anaemic 0.1%.
** Canada - October Unemployment **
- While markets are discounting the next BOC rate hike in January, rather than at the December 5th meeting, and there will a lot more data between now and then, today's labour data will still be sensitive. As usual a modest though solid 15K rise in Employment is expected, after a very noisy 63.3K rise in September, which was deceptive as it was all Part-time Employment, and Full-time Employment actually fell 16.9K, but is expected to post a 20K rise this month. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 5.9%, around the level it has been for all of this year, while Wages are seen edging back up to 2.3% y/y from 2.2%, but well off the base effect related levels seen earlier in the year.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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DAX
in supp ...will it hold..??
in supp ...will it hold..??
