Trading with point and figure

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US open in 30 mins/1.30 pm UK

 

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Dow into the opening bell

 

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lined up

 

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DOW in trend support

 

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Mornin folks

 

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Dax into the open

 

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DOW in trend support

it was in support....then at 7.07pm
had to wait for approx 30 mins and 300 points for the low to be reached

 

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it was in support....then at 7.07pm
had to wait for approx 30 mins and 300 points for the low to be reached

difficult to get the low...some points taken before the close

 

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DAX
bigger picture

 

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DOW
trends marked

 

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bulls need to shake out that new downtrend/purple trendlines

 

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FTSE

 

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Dow over last 24 hours

 

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some detail

 

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DAX
bigger picture

close up on our line

 

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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:27 (9 minutes ago)
to Marc

- Month end looms in the headlight amid continued risk asset volatility,
busy day for data and earnings, notable scheduled events scarce, over
arching political/trade themes cast long shadow; digesting Japan jobs,
French GDP, awaiting German CPI and Eurozone GDP, along with US Consumer
Confidence; Italy to sell BTPs and CCT

- France Q3 GDP: headline miss disguises much better details

- Eurozone Q3 GDP: as yet unpublished though likely weak German GDP
the key swing factor, risks to downside

- German CPI: very well contained expected m/m rise to be offset by base
effects in pushing HICP up, but still very low core Eurozone CPI key

- US Consumer Confidence: modest setback after very robust Q3 rise expected,
data collection timing potentially given potentially hefty drag from
equity market drop; strong labour demand and dip in gasoline prices to
partially offset

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As month end approaches and market volatility persists, today may provide the one or other insight into whether macro inputs will continue to be thrown under the bus of market's understandable navel gazing. The run of scheduled events has little in the way of major items, though the overarching themes of the year will continue to cast their respective shadows, as per the latest Trump rhetoric on China trade, UK Brexit and related domestic political tensions, Italy's budget, Germany's uncertain future amid the demise of chancellor Merkel, and the spotlight on Saudi Arabia following the murder of Khashoggi. Statistically a busy day in Europe is dominated by the run of preliminary Q3 GDP readings, as well as Spanish & German provisional CPI for October, and the EC's various confidence surveys. Elsewhere there are another set of very tight Japan labour market indicators to digest, while the US has Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller House Prices. Italy holds its end of month BTP auctions (5 & 10 yr and 7-yr CCT (FRN)), and there are a deluge of major corporate earnings across the world, see events schedule below for a rundown.

** Eurozone - Q3 GDP / Germany - October CPI **
While France Q3 GDP missed at 0.4% q/q, the details were in fact much more encouraging - via way of strong personal consumption & business investment, a small positive contribution from Trade and a drag from lower inventories. Italian Q3 GDP is seen at 0.2% q/q, a marginal improvement from Q2, but still very sluggish. But the key element for the Eurozone report will be how much of a drag German GDP (due in November) will be, in so far as even the Bundesbank has had to admit that prior expectations of a solid reading in Q3 did not materialize, with auto sector woes exercising a considerable drag, and this could see German GDP in the 0.2%/0.3% q/q area, and as such the consensus for a 0.4% q/q 1.8% y/y (vs. Q2 2.1% y/y) would likely be put to the sword, and leave markets likely pushing back on their expectations for the first ECB rate hike. As for German CPI, a modest 0.1% m/m rise is expected, but thanks to base effects still push up the HICP y/y rate to 2.4% from 2.2%, though the question remains how much the still very low core Eurozone CPI (due tomorrow, last 0.9% y/y) turns out, in so far as it does raise a lot of questions about the durability of the ECB narrative that inflation is on a clear and sustained uptrend.

** U.S.A. - October Consumer Confidence **
- The consensus looks for a relatively modest setback to Consumer confidence to 136.0 from September's 138.4, the latter marking a cumulative 11.3 point gain in Q3, making fresh multi-decade highs along the way, as such a reactive correction is somewhat overdue, though this would still leave the index at frothy levels. The size of the setback will probably be quite heavily contingent on the timing of data collection, with the setback and volatility of US equities being the item that may result in a much sharper fall, along with some modest weakening in house prices, but likely offset by continued strength in labour demand (for which continued strength in the 'labour differential' is evidence), and perhaps a modest boost from the drop in gasoline prices.

from Marc Ostwald

 

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updated
will supp hold..??

 

[inzimam]

Morning!

 

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Naz 100
that trendline cluster could be a real dog
poss ramp to AAPL

 

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boundaries seem defined
recoiling from oversold into rez and especially that trendline cluster
could be wrong..lol