Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dax
lining up
lining up
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
ditto Naz 100
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
DOW
lookin a tad oversold
lookin a tad oversold
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
DAX
should be in support
should be in support
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Another turbulent week closes out with US Q3 advance GDP, as markets
ponder rise in volatility, BoJ JGB yield story, threat of PBOC curbs
on short CNY positions; Tokyo CPI to be digested; plenty more corporate
earnings, ECB speakers, Italy auctions and Russia rate decision
- US advance GDP: consensus assumes solid consumption, business investment,
Net Exports and Inventories the key swing factors
- Market turbulence: pendulum still pointing to step change higher in
volatility, rather than a meltdown
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
At the end of another turbulent week in markets, a modest data schedule finds its focal point in the advance reading on US Q3 GDP along with another run of corporate earnings, though the major talking point among participants will remains whether the current turbulence is the 'new normal'. Outside of these there are the as expected Tokyo CPI data from Japan to digest, along with weak Singapore Industrial Production. ECB speak comes via way of both Draghi and Coeure, after another ECB meeting at which it was reticent to tighten its guidance on QE or its rate trajectory. Russia's Bank Rossi is also expected to hold rates at 7.50%, with the RUB rally alleviating some pressure, though perhaps not proving durable in the wake for the oil price. Governor Nabiullina suggested on Thursday that it will look at a broader spectrum of factors in assessing the rate outlook at today's policy meeting, and noted that it would look to intervene in either or both of FX and govt bond markets in case of market volatility.
However an overnight report suggesting that the BoJ might tolerate a rise in 10yr JGB yields above the current upper limit of 0.20% will likely be more of an influence or talking points for markets which are clearly struggling to get used to the consequences of the G3 central banks draining liquidity. As noted earlier in the week (see Wednesday's Good Morning), there are other flow factors in play ('Corporate QE' pause due to earnings season, G-SIB year end surcharge impacting money rates, rising US Treasury supply, EM central banks being net sellers of reserve assets to prop their currencies). As such the initial assessment is that this is more a recipe for volatility, than a full scale meltdown. Other items to note are the PBOC warning that is ready to be more aggressive on curbing short CNY activity, and the ever hawkish Fed's Mester saying that the recent sell-off is very far from prompting a 'Fed Powell put', which helps to put some flesh on how far the Fed might allow financial conditions indices to tighten before a rate hiking pause becomes a talking point for the FOMC majority.
- US Q3 advance GDP has the consensus looking for a 3.3% SAAR rise (vs 4.2% in Q2), paced by another robust 3.2% SAAR gain in Personal Consumption (vs. Q2 3.8%), though also seeing a deceleration in nominal GDP from the heady 7.2% of Q2 to a still solid 5.5% (GDP deflator seen at 2.3% from 3.0%, core PCE Deflator 1.6% from 2.1%. The various regional Fed GDPnowcasts are far apart - NY at a lowly 2.1%, Atlanta 3.6% and St Louis at 4.4%. Outside of Personal Consumption, Business Investment should make another solid contribution, and Inventories are likely to make a positive contribution after weighing on the 3 previous quarters, and in a role reversal Net Exports are likely to deduct quite heavily. Yesterday's Good Trade and Durables Shipments & Inventories suggest an even bigger drag from Trade (ca -2.0 ppts), above all agricultural exports, while the Durables data point to a stronger contribution from inventories (+2.0 ppts), even if the headline Durables orders imply a perhaps quite sizeable slowdown in Q4 Business Investment, to a certain extent inevitable after the strength over the past year, but likely to be seized upon by the doom and gloomsters. Residential housing investment will likely again be negative, though it should be borne in mind that the negative contributions in the past 3 quarters were in fact negligible (Q4 -0.04 ppts, Q1 -0.06 ppt and Q1 -0.05 ppt), as such the array of housing 'Cassandras' are best ignored
.from Marc Ostwald
ponder rise in volatility, BoJ JGB yield story, threat of PBOC curbs
on short CNY positions; Tokyo CPI to be digested; plenty more corporate
earnings, ECB speakers, Italy auctions and Russia rate decision
- US advance GDP: consensus assumes solid consumption, business investment,
Net Exports and Inventories the key swing factors
- Market turbulence: pendulum still pointing to step change higher in
volatility, rather than a meltdown
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
At the end of another turbulent week in markets, a modest data schedule finds its focal point in the advance reading on US Q3 GDP along with another run of corporate earnings, though the major talking point among participants will remains whether the current turbulence is the 'new normal'. Outside of these there are the as expected Tokyo CPI data from Japan to digest, along with weak Singapore Industrial Production. ECB speak comes via way of both Draghi and Coeure, after another ECB meeting at which it was reticent to tighten its guidance on QE or its rate trajectory. Russia's Bank Rossi is also expected to hold rates at 7.50%, with the RUB rally alleviating some pressure, though perhaps not proving durable in the wake for the oil price. Governor Nabiullina suggested on Thursday that it will look at a broader spectrum of factors in assessing the rate outlook at today's policy meeting, and noted that it would look to intervene in either or both of FX and govt bond markets in case of market volatility.
However an overnight report suggesting that the BoJ might tolerate a rise in 10yr JGB yields above the current upper limit of 0.20% will likely be more of an influence or talking points for markets which are clearly struggling to get used to the consequences of the G3 central banks draining liquidity. As noted earlier in the week (see Wednesday's Good Morning), there are other flow factors in play ('Corporate QE' pause due to earnings season, G-SIB year end surcharge impacting money rates, rising US Treasury supply, EM central banks being net sellers of reserve assets to prop their currencies). As such the initial assessment is that this is more a recipe for volatility, than a full scale meltdown. Other items to note are the PBOC warning that is ready to be more aggressive on curbing short CNY activity, and the ever hawkish Fed's Mester saying that the recent sell-off is very far from prompting a 'Fed Powell put', which helps to put some flesh on how far the Fed might allow financial conditions indices to tighten before a rate hiking pause becomes a talking point for the FOMC majority.
- US Q3 advance GDP has the consensus looking for a 3.3% SAAR rise (vs 4.2% in Q2), paced by another robust 3.2% SAAR gain in Personal Consumption (vs. Q2 3.8%), though also seeing a deceleration in nominal GDP from the heady 7.2% of Q2 to a still solid 5.5% (GDP deflator seen at 2.3% from 3.0%, core PCE Deflator 1.6% from 2.1%. The various regional Fed GDPnowcasts are far apart - NY at a lowly 2.1%, Atlanta 3.6% and St Louis at 4.4%. Outside of Personal Consumption, Business Investment should make another solid contribution, and Inventories are likely to make a positive contribution after weighing on the 3 previous quarters, and in a role reversal Net Exports are likely to deduct quite heavily. Yesterday's Good Trade and Durables Shipments & Inventories suggest an even bigger drag from Trade (ca -2.0 ppts), above all agricultural exports, while the Durables data point to a stronger contribution from inventories (+2.0 ppts), even if the headline Durables orders imply a perhaps quite sizeable slowdown in Q4 Business Investment, to a certain extent inevitable after the strength over the past year, but likely to be seized upon by the doom and gloomsters. Residential housing investment will likely again be negative, though it should be borne in mind that the negative contributions in the past 3 quarters were in fact negligible (Q4 -0.04 ppts, Q1 -0.06 ppt and Q1 -0.05 ppt), as such the array of housing 'Cassandras' are best ignored
.from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
OIL
updated
updated
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
EURUSD
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dax
dumped for the last 2 years
dumped for the last 2 years
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
explanation of the chart
main trend is marked
the trend from the reaction point/pullback is marked
main trend is marked
the trend from the reaction point/pullback is marked
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
that gives us 2 trends support area for these trends.the space between the lines should be support area
it is a close plot...so some leeway has to be added
it is a close plot...so some leeway has to be added
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
faults with that
have i got the correct box size
have i got the correct reversal
trendlines are at 45 degrees...so you cannot argue with those
have i got the correct box size
have i got the correct reversal
trendlines are at 45 degrees...so you cannot argue with those
