Dentalfloss
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and bounce
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Trading with point and figure
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Dow in supp....will it hold ...??
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there is some sort of pivot area @11540
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nope
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DOW
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updated
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25450-25482 is bigger rez
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Close up
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Week Ahead - Preview: 15 to 19 October 2018
- A busy week is in prospect on a number of fronts, with a raft of major data due in the USA, China and the UK, CPI in Japan (also Trade) and Canada (also Retail Sales), and labour data in Australia. The central banking schedule has FOMC and RBA policy meeting minutes, and plenty of G7 central bank speakers. Political events and developments will also be very much front and centre, as the results of Sunday's Bavarian state elections are digested, final 2019 budget submissions are made to the EU (Italy being the focal point) and the EU holds a key meeting on the current state of Brexit negotiations, while there are also the annual Belt & Road Forum and the Canton Trade Fair in China, an Asia-EU summit, various top level ASEAN meeting, while campaigning continues for the US mid-term elections on November 6th. Govt bond supply sees auctions in Germany, France and Spain totalling around EUR 18.0 Bln (but offset by a much higher volume of redemptions and coupons that started Friday with EUR 17 Bln in Germany and sees a total of EUR 29.2 Bln in Italy, Ireland and Austria), while the US sells a modest $5.0 Bln of 30-yr TIPS (re-opening), as well as holding an inaugural 2-mth T-Bill auction in addition to the usual 1, 3 & 6-mth sales. The US Q3 Corporate Earnings also cranks slowly into gear, with financials (e.g. Goldman, Blackrock) as ever dominating the initial run, though Domino's Pizza, IBM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Schlumberger are likely to be among the highlights for the non-financials. Eminently markets will also be watching very carefully to see if the sell-off in riskier assets was more than just another storm in a teacup, for some thoughts on this see:
.
- Retail Sales tops the US run of data with autos set to give a welcome boost to headline sales, seen at 0.7% m/m, having dragged on the August headline (0.1% m/m), while all core measures are expected to post a solid 0.4% m/m rise. Industrial Production is forecast to rise a modest 0.2% m/m after gains of 0.4% m/m in the first two months of the quarter, and thus underlining business spending will again make a solid contribution to Q3 GDP (due at the end of the month), NY & Philly Fed manufacturing surveys are also due. Housing sector data is also plentiful via way of the NAHB survey, Housing Starts (a hefty distortion from Hurricane Florence is likely) and Existing Home Sales (forecast -0.8% vs. Aug flat m/m), while JOLTS Job Openings are seen close to last month's record all-time high 6.939 Mln.
In the UK, the latest market report is projected to show Employment growth is modest (+11K vs. prior +3K) to leave the Unemployment Rate unchanged at its multi-decade low of 4.0%, with Average Weekly Earnings seen holding the higher than expected pace seen in July (headline 2.6% y/y, ex-Bonus 2.9%). As for the run of inflation prints, headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, after August's unexpectedly large, mainly clothing related 0.7% m/m, which implies a renewed dip in the y/y to 2.6% from 2.7%. Rising energy prices are expected to give a 0.9% m/m bump to PPI Input that would see the y/y rate rise to 9.2% from 8.7%, but PPI Output measures are projected to remain very restrained at 2.9% y/y headline and 2.3% y/y core. The ONS House Price measure has been gradually moving into line with other measures, with a drop to 2.&% y/y from 3.1% anticipated. PSNB budget data and Rightmove House Prices are also due.
Following on from the better than expected Chinese Trade data, CPI and PPI are anticipated to have diverged modestly, with CPI forecast to move to 2.5% y/y from 2.3%, paced by Food (above all Pork, both due to Swine Fever and base effects), but PPI is seen extending its down move to just 3.6% y/y from August's 4.1%, with lower commodity prices offsetting the impact from a weaker CNY and the rise in Energy prices. Friday sees the release of Q3 GDP which is expected to decelerate to 1.6% q/q 6.7% y/y from Q2's 1.8% q/q 6.8%, though as ever most commentators are likely to treat the data with some scepticism. Retail Sales are expected to hold the modest rebound seen in August 9.0% y/y/, while Industrial Production is seen edging back to its cyclical low of 6.0%, though perhaps most attention will be given to Fixed Asset Investment (FAI), that has decelerated to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, above all due to very weak public sector investment (just 1.1% y/y), while Private Sector is around 3-yr highs of 8.7%. Monetary and credit aggregates are also due, as is Unemployment and Property Prices.
Elsewhere, Japanese Trade is seen posting a deficit above all due to the impact of the bad weather and earthquakes, with Exports seen up just 2.3% y/y, while Imports are likely to continue to run at a robust 13.7% y/y, boosted by energy prices. National CPI is also due and should broadly mirror the already published Tokyo reading, with headline at 1.3% y/y, ex-Fresh Food 1.0%, while the core measure continues to languish at just 0.4%. Canada has the two quarterly BoC surveys (Business Outlook & Loan Officer), which may capture a boost from the USMCA, and will certainly weigh quite heavily in the end of month BoC rate decision (a rate hike to 1.75% is almost completely discounted). CPI should remain very close to or slightly above the BoC's 2.0% target, while Auto Sales appear likely to drag on headline Retail Sales, though ex-Autos Sales have been robust in recent months. Australia's Unemployment Rate is forecast to be unchanged for a third month at 5.3%, with a more modest 15K rise after August's 44K, but still likely to show little sign of any significant piCk-up in Wage growth, and thus preserve the RBA's very neutral and accommodative policy stance (Oct minutes are also due). In the EM paces, Brazil has monthly GDP, and India looks to WPI and Trade data, while Turkey has Unemployment and Industrial Production, with a busy week in Poland seeing Core CPI, PPI, Wages, Industrial Production and Trade.
- In the central bank space, the September FOMC minutes may not prove to be that enlightening in so far as this was a press conference meeting, though it may offer some further insights on the committee's decision to drop 'accommodative' from the statement, and obviously discussions on trade tensions and financial market conditions. There are rather more ECB than Fed speakers this week, and BoJ's Kuroda will also be speaking at a BoJ branch managers' meeting.
- Sunday's Bavarian state elections are expected to see the CSU (sister party of Merkel's CDU) lose a lot of ground, with polls suggesting they will poll no more than 32-36%, way below the worst previous outcome of 43%. The Greens are expected to be the main beneficiary, with polls suggesting they will be the second strongest party with 18-19%, with the SPD and the AfD both projected to win around 10% of the vote.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
- A busy week is in prospect on a number of fronts, with a raft of major data due in the USA, China and the UK, CPI in Japan (also Trade) and Canada (also Retail Sales), and labour data in Australia. The central banking schedule has FOMC and RBA policy meeting minutes, and plenty of G7 central bank speakers. Political events and developments will also be very much front and centre, as the results of Sunday's Bavarian state elections are digested, final 2019 budget submissions are made to the EU (Italy being the focal point) and the EU holds a key meeting on the current state of Brexit negotiations, while there are also the annual Belt & Road Forum and the Canton Trade Fair in China, an Asia-EU summit, various top level ASEAN meeting, while campaigning continues for the US mid-term elections on November 6th. Govt bond supply sees auctions in Germany, France and Spain totalling around EUR 18.0 Bln (but offset by a much higher volume of redemptions and coupons that started Friday with EUR 17 Bln in Germany and sees a total of EUR 29.2 Bln in Italy, Ireland and Austria), while the US sells a modest $5.0 Bln of 30-yr TIPS (re-opening), as well as holding an inaugural 2-mth T-Bill auction in addition to the usual 1, 3 & 6-mth sales. The US Q3 Corporate Earnings also cranks slowly into gear, with financials (e.g. Goldman, Blackrock) as ever dominating the initial run, though Domino's Pizza, IBM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Schlumberger are likely to be among the highlights for the non-financials. Eminently markets will also be watching very carefully to see if the sell-off in riskier assets was more than just another storm in a teacup, for some thoughts on this see:
- Retail Sales tops the US run of data with autos set to give a welcome boost to headline sales, seen at 0.7% m/m, having dragged on the August headline (0.1% m/m), while all core measures are expected to post a solid 0.4% m/m rise. Industrial Production is forecast to rise a modest 0.2% m/m after gains of 0.4% m/m in the first two months of the quarter, and thus underlining business spending will again make a solid contribution to Q3 GDP (due at the end of the month), NY & Philly Fed manufacturing surveys are also due. Housing sector data is also plentiful via way of the NAHB survey, Housing Starts (a hefty distortion from Hurricane Florence is likely) and Existing Home Sales (forecast -0.8% vs. Aug flat m/m), while JOLTS Job Openings are seen close to last month's record all-time high 6.939 Mln.
In the UK, the latest market report is projected to show Employment growth is modest (+11K vs. prior +3K) to leave the Unemployment Rate unchanged at its multi-decade low of 4.0%, with Average Weekly Earnings seen holding the higher than expected pace seen in July (headline 2.6% y/y, ex-Bonus 2.9%). As for the run of inflation prints, headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, after August's unexpectedly large, mainly clothing related 0.7% m/m, which implies a renewed dip in the y/y to 2.6% from 2.7%. Rising energy prices are expected to give a 0.9% m/m bump to PPI Input that would see the y/y rate rise to 9.2% from 8.7%, but PPI Output measures are projected to remain very restrained at 2.9% y/y headline and 2.3% y/y core. The ONS House Price measure has been gradually moving into line with other measures, with a drop to 2.&% y/y from 3.1% anticipated. PSNB budget data and Rightmove House Prices are also due.
Following on from the better than expected Chinese Trade data, CPI and PPI are anticipated to have diverged modestly, with CPI forecast to move to 2.5% y/y from 2.3%, paced by Food (above all Pork, both due to Swine Fever and base effects), but PPI is seen extending its down move to just 3.6% y/y from August's 4.1%, with lower commodity prices offsetting the impact from a weaker CNY and the rise in Energy prices. Friday sees the release of Q3 GDP which is expected to decelerate to 1.6% q/q 6.7% y/y from Q2's 1.8% q/q 6.8%, though as ever most commentators are likely to treat the data with some scepticism. Retail Sales are expected to hold the modest rebound seen in August 9.0% y/y/, while Industrial Production is seen edging back to its cyclical low of 6.0%, though perhaps most attention will be given to Fixed Asset Investment (FAI), that has decelerated to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, above all due to very weak public sector investment (just 1.1% y/y), while Private Sector is around 3-yr highs of 8.7%. Monetary and credit aggregates are also due, as is Unemployment and Property Prices.
Elsewhere, Japanese Trade is seen posting a deficit above all due to the impact of the bad weather and earthquakes, with Exports seen up just 2.3% y/y, while Imports are likely to continue to run at a robust 13.7% y/y, boosted by energy prices. National CPI is also due and should broadly mirror the already published Tokyo reading, with headline at 1.3% y/y, ex-Fresh Food 1.0%, while the core measure continues to languish at just 0.4%. Canada has the two quarterly BoC surveys (Business Outlook & Loan Officer), which may capture a boost from the USMCA, and will certainly weigh quite heavily in the end of month BoC rate decision (a rate hike to 1.75% is almost completely discounted). CPI should remain very close to or slightly above the BoC's 2.0% target, while Auto Sales appear likely to drag on headline Retail Sales, though ex-Autos Sales have been robust in recent months. Australia's Unemployment Rate is forecast to be unchanged for a third month at 5.3%, with a more modest 15K rise after August's 44K, but still likely to show little sign of any significant piCk-up in Wage growth, and thus preserve the RBA's very neutral and accommodative policy stance (Oct minutes are also due). In the EM paces, Brazil has monthly GDP, and India looks to WPI and Trade data, while Turkey has Unemployment and Industrial Production, with a busy week in Poland seeing Core CPI, PPI, Wages, Industrial Production and Trade.
- In the central bank space, the September FOMC minutes may not prove to be that enlightening in so far as this was a press conference meeting, though it may offer some further insights on the committee's decision to drop 'accommodative' from the statement, and obviously discussions on trade tensions and financial market conditions. There are rather more ECB than Fed speakers this week, and BoJ's Kuroda will also be speaking at a BoJ branch managers' meeting.
- Sunday's Bavarian state elections are expected to see the CSU (sister party of Merkel's CDU) lose a lot of ground, with polls suggesting they will poll no more than 32-36%, way below the worst previous outcome of 43%. The Greens are expected to be the main beneficiary, with polls suggesting they will be the second strongest party with 18-19%, with the SPD and the AfD both projected to win around 10% of the vote.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Dentalfloss
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Posted at 4.12pm
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
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Morning Mlud
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Dow into the open
testing a supp area now..25200 ish
testing a supp area now..25200 ish
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US Retail Sales and NY Fed Manufacturing survey tops modest schedule of
data, with weekend political developments, and risk asset dynamics set
to provide the other key influences
- Brexit negotiations: all sides against PM May's 'middle' bodes poorly
- Bavaria election: 'people's parties' trounced, but Greens the big winners
on the night; migration very much subordinated to education, housing and
environment in terms of voter priorities: Hessen vote in two weeks
- US Retail Sales: autos set to boost rather than drag on headline for a
change; clothing and gasoline prices also likely to boost; suggests
solid personal consumption contribution to Q3 GDP
- Risk asset sell-off: outside of Fed & BoJ taper, Fed QE reinvestment to
fall close to zero
- Charts: Fed reinvestment flows; Bavarian election result, Bavarian
voter concerns
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The week gets off to a flying start in a certain sense, with US Retail Sales and the NY Fed Manufacturing surveys the stand-out items on an otherwise modest day schedule. However the political arena has a number of long-standing tensions reaching some form of tipping point: be that what appear to be open revolt in the UK cabinet over PM May's Brexit negotiating stance, the Italian budget debacle in sharp focus as EU governments submit their 2019 budgets to the EU Commission, not to mention the re-emergent Greek banking crisis, and the alleged murder of Saudi journalist Khasshogi finally tipping western governments to take some action. Elsewhere two further points of tension are likely to be in focus: a) the annual Belt & Road finance forum will increase discussion about the viability of how it is financed, with IMF bail-out bound Pakistan and the new government in Malaysia cancelling major projects due to the debt load that they entail; b) EU foreign ministers meeting today on the highly divisive topic of migration, which amongst other things continues to hamper any form of progress on EU reforms, though this was NOT a key factor in the sharp drop in support for the ruling CSU in the Bavarian state election (Education, Housing and the Environment all ranked well above), a resounding defeat also likely to be reprised for the CDU and SPD in the Hessen state election on 28 October. As noted below, the other key question relates to whether Friday's rebound in US equity markets was just weekend book squaring, or evidence that Wednesday and Thursday's rout signalled a real change in market dynamics; in that respect it is worth noting that beyond the reduction in ECB and BoJ QE volumes, the volume of Fed reinvestments (thanks to its balance sheet reduction programme) falls to its lowest level in many years this month at just $300 Mln - see attached chart.
** U.S.A. - September Retail Sales **
- Retail Sales tops the US run of data this week with autos set to give a welcome and recently very rare boost to headline sales, seen at 0.7% m/m, in contrast to the drag autos exercised on the August headline (0.1% m/m), while all core measures are expected to post a solid 0.4% m/m rise, reinforcing expectations of a solid profile to Q3 Personal Consumption. Outside of autos, clothing (apparel) should reverse the sizeable drag seen in August as hefty seasonal discounting on apparel (Aug -1.6% m/m) unwinds, and higher gasoline prices should also be a net contributor. The strong run of Manufacturing surveys is expected to be sustained, with today's NY Fed reading seen rising to 20.5 from 19.0, and the focus likely to remain on Orders and Prices metrics.
From Marc Ostwald
data, with weekend political developments, and risk asset dynamics set
to provide the other key influences
- Brexit negotiations: all sides against PM May's 'middle' bodes poorly
- Bavaria election: 'people's parties' trounced, but Greens the big winners
on the night; migration very much subordinated to education, housing and
environment in terms of voter priorities: Hessen vote in two weeks
- US Retail Sales: autos set to boost rather than drag on headline for a
change; clothing and gasoline prices also likely to boost; suggests
solid personal consumption contribution to Q3 GDP
- Risk asset sell-off: outside of Fed & BoJ taper, Fed QE reinvestment to
fall close to zero
- Charts: Fed reinvestment flows; Bavarian election result, Bavarian
voter concerns
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The week gets off to a flying start in a certain sense, with US Retail Sales and the NY Fed Manufacturing surveys the stand-out items on an otherwise modest day schedule. However the political arena has a number of long-standing tensions reaching some form of tipping point: be that what appear to be open revolt in the UK cabinet over PM May's Brexit negotiating stance, the Italian budget debacle in sharp focus as EU governments submit their 2019 budgets to the EU Commission, not to mention the re-emergent Greek banking crisis, and the alleged murder of Saudi journalist Khasshogi finally tipping western governments to take some action. Elsewhere two further points of tension are likely to be in focus: a) the annual Belt & Road finance forum will increase discussion about the viability of how it is financed, with IMF bail-out bound Pakistan and the new government in Malaysia cancelling major projects due to the debt load that they entail; b) EU foreign ministers meeting today on the highly divisive topic of migration, which amongst other things continues to hamper any form of progress on EU reforms, though this was NOT a key factor in the sharp drop in support for the ruling CSU in the Bavarian state election (Education, Housing and the Environment all ranked well above), a resounding defeat also likely to be reprised for the CDU and SPD in the Hessen state election on 28 October. As noted below, the other key question relates to whether Friday's rebound in US equity markets was just weekend book squaring, or evidence that Wednesday and Thursday's rout signalled a real change in market dynamics; in that respect it is worth noting that beyond the reduction in ECB and BoJ QE volumes, the volume of Fed reinvestments (thanks to its balance sheet reduction programme) falls to its lowest level in many years this month at just $300 Mln - see attached chart.
** U.S.A. - September Retail Sales **
- Retail Sales tops the US run of data this week with autos set to give a welcome and recently very rare boost to headline sales, seen at 0.7% m/m, in contrast to the drag autos exercised on the August headline (0.1% m/m), while all core measures are expected to post a solid 0.4% m/m rise, reinforcing expectations of a solid profile to Q3 Personal Consumption. Outside of autos, clothing (apparel) should reverse the sizeable drag seen in August as hefty seasonal discounting on apparel (Aug -1.6% m/m) unwinds, and higher gasoline prices should also be a net contributor. The strong run of Manufacturing surveys is expected to be sustained, with today's NY Fed reading seen rising to 20.5 from 19.0, and the focus likely to remain on Orders and Prices metrics.
From Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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DAx into the open
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FTSE to rally.....Meghan opregnant
