Dentalfloss
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if you called levels..your account would be badly hit
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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if you called levels..your account would be badly hit
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
Dentalfloss
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downmove been broken
but....
is it a dead cat bounce..??
but....
is it a dead cat bounce..??
Morning
Do you mind showing me that first rez area again..
Didnt we have many bounce areas?
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
Dentalfloss
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no real meat on the bounces...only enough for a scalps
Dentalfloss
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3 bounce areas
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only the last one was decent
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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:28 (33 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Equity market drop likely to eclipse most of data and event schedule
with the exception of US CPI; digesting soft UK RICS and Japan PPI
ahead of Swedish CPI, ECB minutes & BoE Credit conditions survey;
Italy BTP auction an interesting test in face of budget drama, US
sells 30-yr
- Equity sell-off mostly a case of facing reality on Fed; widening
HY credit spreads and hefty HY Bond ETF redemptions too; VIX spike
has strong seasonal element; Fed like to keep a close eye on Financial
Conditions indices
- US CPI: 'average' rise expected in m/m terms; PPI suggests gasoline may
drag, but air fares to pressure higher along with housing; medical care
costs the other wild card
- Charts: VIX seasonal pattern, VIX Index, S&P500 vs USD HY Bond spread,
US Financial Conditions, HYG & JNK HY Bond ETFs. UK 50 yr Gilt price
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively modest day for data and events has US CPI and the ECB meeting 'minutes' as its highlights, with the UK RICS House Price survey, Japanese PPI, Swedish CPI and the Turkish monthly Current Account perhaps attracting some attention. Meanwhile the events schedule looks to the BoE's latest Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys, a speech by BoE's Vlieghe and the US WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. The Govt bond auction schedule sees a very interesting test for Italy with EUR 6.45 Bln of medium and long-dated BTPs, while the US completes this week's refinancing with $15 Bln 30-yr Treasuries. In terms of the ECB minutes, these are all too often rather unenlightening in terms of insights into the policy outlook, though at the margin it might offer some insight into what might force the ECB's hand into extending QE, and perhaps how much divergence of opinion there is on the timing of the first rate hike, given some speakers have suggested it could some sooner or later. The Turkish Current Account data will ostensibly show a major improvement, with an expected surplus $2.5 Bln, but that is primarily due to the collapse in domestic demand and perhaps the financial support from Qatar, so in truth not encouraging at all.
However the day's schedule may prove to be rather moot, if the long overdue rout in equity markets gets further traction. Long overdue in the sense that markets' complacency on the Fed rate trajectory and its balance sheet reduction programme (allied with ECB and BoJ tapering), has been all too palpable for a long period, with other indicators such as the super tight levels of HY bond spreads, super low levels of volatility, and the recent cacophony of those suggesting that it was time to charge back into EM markets, all having told a similar story. A close eye now needs to be kept on the US financial conditions indices (see chart attached), which remain low relative to where they were at the start of the Fed rate hike cycle, but will start to march higher if stocks were to continue to fall and credit spreads widen, and this rise above all may well be the factor that prompts the Fed to pause on rates. As one former colleague pointed out to me yesterday, it should also be remembered that this spike in volatility has a strong seasonal element to it, even if it was absent in 2017 - see attached chart. Also on USD HY bonds, it is worth noting that US HY ETFs (HYG & JNK) have seen some very hefty redemptions, cumulatively $4.5 bln over the past four sessions, which the Street will now have to try and to lighten its involuntary long.
** U.S.A. - September CPI **
- As with the forecasts for PPI, expectations look for a very average 0.2% m/m increase for both headline and core, though with quite sharply differing outcomes due to base effects in y/y terms, with headline dropping quite sharply to 2.4% from 2.7%, and core edging back up to 2.3% from 2.2%, which in the greater scheme of things is really more statistical noise than anything else. However if projections are correct then the headline reading would signal a marked improvement in real yields on US Treasuries. In terms of the points from PPI, the downward pull on PPI came mainly from goods (-0.1% m/m), above all gasoline perhaps surprisingly given the profile of RBOB gasoline future over the past month, but this could weigh modestly on headline CPI, but the fact the key upward push on Services came from airline fares implies some upside risks for both headline and core, which will continue to see pressure from housing (OER), thus leaving the recently the recently benign trend in medical care cost as the other wild card. Once again the perspective is a simple one, a higher than expected outturn would not signal rising inflation pressures, but it would underline that inflation is well established just above target, and as such points (along with a tight labour market and robust growth) to the Fed sticking with gradual rate hikes to a point where they are modestly restrictive.
from Marc Ostwald
Attachments
08:28 (33 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Equity market drop likely to eclipse most of data and event schedule
with the exception of US CPI; digesting soft UK RICS and Japan PPI
ahead of Swedish CPI, ECB minutes & BoE Credit conditions survey;
Italy BTP auction an interesting test in face of budget drama, US
sells 30-yr
- Equity sell-off mostly a case of facing reality on Fed; widening
HY credit spreads and hefty HY Bond ETF redemptions too; VIX spike
has strong seasonal element; Fed like to keep a close eye on Financial
Conditions indices
- US CPI: 'average' rise expected in m/m terms; PPI suggests gasoline may
drag, but air fares to pressure higher along with housing; medical care
costs the other wild card
- Charts: VIX seasonal pattern, VIX Index, S&P500 vs USD HY Bond spread,
US Financial Conditions, HYG & JNK HY Bond ETFs. UK 50 yr Gilt price
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively modest day for data and events has US CPI and the ECB meeting 'minutes' as its highlights, with the UK RICS House Price survey, Japanese PPI, Swedish CPI and the Turkish monthly Current Account perhaps attracting some attention. Meanwhile the events schedule looks to the BoE's latest Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys, a speech by BoE's Vlieghe and the US WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. The Govt bond auction schedule sees a very interesting test for Italy with EUR 6.45 Bln of medium and long-dated BTPs, while the US completes this week's refinancing with $15 Bln 30-yr Treasuries. In terms of the ECB minutes, these are all too often rather unenlightening in terms of insights into the policy outlook, though at the margin it might offer some insight into what might force the ECB's hand into extending QE, and perhaps how much divergence of opinion there is on the timing of the first rate hike, given some speakers have suggested it could some sooner or later. The Turkish Current Account data will ostensibly show a major improvement, with an expected surplus $2.5 Bln, but that is primarily due to the collapse in domestic demand and perhaps the financial support from Qatar, so in truth not encouraging at all.
However the day's schedule may prove to be rather moot, if the long overdue rout in equity markets gets further traction. Long overdue in the sense that markets' complacency on the Fed rate trajectory and its balance sheet reduction programme (allied with ECB and BoJ tapering), has been all too palpable for a long period, with other indicators such as the super tight levels of HY bond spreads, super low levels of volatility, and the recent cacophony of those suggesting that it was time to charge back into EM markets, all having told a similar story. A close eye now needs to be kept on the US financial conditions indices (see chart attached), which remain low relative to where they were at the start of the Fed rate hike cycle, but will start to march higher if stocks were to continue to fall and credit spreads widen, and this rise above all may well be the factor that prompts the Fed to pause on rates. As one former colleague pointed out to me yesterday, it should also be remembered that this spike in volatility has a strong seasonal element to it, even if it was absent in 2017 - see attached chart. Also on USD HY bonds, it is worth noting that US HY ETFs (HYG & JNK) have seen some very hefty redemptions, cumulatively $4.5 bln over the past four sessions, which the Street will now have to try and to lighten its involuntary long.
** U.S.A. - September CPI **
- As with the forecasts for PPI, expectations look for a very average 0.2% m/m increase for both headline and core, though with quite sharply differing outcomes due to base effects in y/y terms, with headline dropping quite sharply to 2.4% from 2.7%, and core edging back up to 2.3% from 2.2%, which in the greater scheme of things is really more statistical noise than anything else. However if projections are correct then the headline reading would signal a marked improvement in real yields on US Treasuries. In terms of the points from PPI, the downward pull on PPI came mainly from goods (-0.1% m/m), above all gasoline perhaps surprisingly given the profile of RBOB gasoline future over the past month, but this could weigh modestly on headline CPI, but the fact the key upward push on Services came from airline fares implies some upside risks for both headline and core, which will continue to see pressure from housing (OER), thus leaving the recently the recently benign trend in medical care cost as the other wild card. Once again the perspective is a simple one, a higher than expected outturn would not signal rising inflation pressures, but it would underline that inflation is well established just above target, and as such points (along with a tight labour market and robust growth) to the Fed sticking with gradual rate hikes to a point where they are modestly restrictive.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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price went straight to our rez...and dump
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
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DAX
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DAX
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FTSE
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FTSE
now we have pinpointed the rez area ...we can fine tune the rez areas
chart comin
Dentalfloss
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chart
chart
Quite a few trend lines there to halt the push up!
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FTSE into the open
more about rez than support
lots of trendlines/down
posted yesterday at 7.54am
