Trading with point and figure

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Ostwald, Marc
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08:33 (35 minutes ago)
to Marc

- Busy day for central bank speakers, data schedule very modest with focus
on US Consumer Confidence; bond auctions Netherlands, Italy, UK and US

- US Consumer Confidence: marginal setback expected; focus on colossal
gap between Current Situation and flat-lined Expectations


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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Once again the day's statistical schedule is modest, with French Business Confidence and Japan's Services PPI to be digested ahead of US Consumer Confidence and both House Price measures. By contrast the day's run of central bank speakers is very plentiful, ranging from Kuroda overnight, through ECB's Coeure and Praet to BoE's Vlieghe amongst others, with no change rate decisions seen in Morocco and Nigeria. The Italian 2019 budget deadline looms, while Japan and the US hold top level trade talks. A busy day for govt bond auctions kicks off with Italy (2-yr Zero & 14-yr inflation-linked BTP), Netherlands 6-yr DSL and UK 30-yr I-L Gilt ahead of the US 2-yr FRN and 5-yr T-Note. As was again more than amply demonstrated by market reaction to US deputy AG Rosenstein's 'not resignation', politics and trade related items continue to crowd the array of potential leftfield disruptors.

** U.S.A. - September Consumer Confidence **
- After yet another surge higher from July's 127.9 to August's 133.4 (the highest since November 2000), Consumer Confidence is expected to dip fractionally to 132.0, with a strong labour market (as represented by a very 30.0 on the index's Labour Differential) boosting income expectations, and spending plans. As has been noted, a gaping chasm has emerged between the present situation index (AUg 172.2) that has driven the rise, and the Expectations index (107.6), which has move sideways since 2016. That gap is now nearly as big as the one that opened up ahead of the dotcom bubble bursting, and indeed now larger than the gap that opened up ahead of the global financial crisis - see attached chart; the auspices from this are obviously not good, but precisely how this might play out is in truth written in the stars.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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