Dentalfloss
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SNB at 8.30am...seems to be important
GBP retail sales @9.30am
could be iffy until then
maybe..??
GBP retail sales @9.30am
could be iffy until then
maybe..??
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
Dentalfloss
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comin off the boil..a tad
support starts at 12200 down to 12160 area
then reassess
3 days of data on the chart
support starts at 12200 down to 12160 area
then reassess
3 days of data on the chart
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
3 days of data
3 days of data
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments
08:20 (6 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting strong NZ Q2 GDP ahead of UK Retail Saels, US weekly jobless
claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing & Existing Homes Sales: SNB, Norges
Bank and SARB rate decisions, Praet speech; Govt bond auctions in France,
Spain, UK and USA
- SNB rate decision- resolutely on hold, may ratchet up FX intervention
threat
- Norges Bank: first rate hike in 7 years, all eyes on economic and rate
trajectory forecasts
- South Africa: SARB on hold, lower than expected CPI alleviates any
pressure from ZAR weakness
- UK Retail Sales: surveys predicate expected dip, CPI data implies
downside risks
- US Existing Home Sales: first (modest) rise in 5 months expected,
still low inventories and to a lesser extent affordability present
headwinds
- Charts: China LNG import prices by source, India Petrol Prices, US 10-yr
yield, US IG and HY Corp bond average spreads, EUR/NOK
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again, escaping the shackles of trade tensions and politics will prove difficult, despite a reasonably busy schedule of data and events, though equity markets will be primarily focused on tomorrow's quadruple witching in futures and options. Statistically the overnight NZ Q2 GDP precedes the UK Retail Sales, along with US weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and Existing Home Sales. There are central bank policy meetings in Switzerland, Norway and South Africa, while ECB's Praet is the only central bank speaker of note. On a busy day for govt bond auctions, France offers medium-dated and inflation-linked OATs, Spain sells a mix of Bonos in the 3 to 10-yr maturity spectrum, the UK re-opens its current 10-yr benchmark Gilt, while the US sells 10-yr TIPS. While demand at the auctions should be helped by the recent US Treasury lead rise in govt bond prices, there is clearly growing concern about why Treasury 10-yr yields should have broken out of the tight 21 bps trading range that had prevailed since 1 July. The answer is as ever not a single factor, but an accumulation of diverse elements. For all that the most recent CPI data was lower than expected, it remains very clearly above the Fed's target (though not in signalling a major uptrend), and with wages finally showing signs of acceleration, markets have belatedly come to the realization that the Fed is very much intent on raising rates to its short-term trajectory (3.25%-3.50% in 2020), rather than the medium-term neutral rate (2.75%-3.0%): per se Treasury yields and TIPS breakeven inflation rates have been under-pricing that risk. Why now? More than likely the key prompt came from Ms Brainard's speech last week, but seasonally typical high levels of corporate issuance (month t date just shy of $120 Bln in terms of IG volumes). In addition the front loading of US Corporate Pension fund purchases of Treasuries due to tax advantages that expired on 15 September reduces demand going into Q4, just as the Fed ups its balance sheet reduction programme to the assumed peak pace of $50 Bn per months, while the US Treasury ups its borrowing volume, and EM central banks looking to defend their currencies reducing their FX reserves, and by extension their holdings of Treasuries. Last but not least the inflows to the US as a result of the corproate tax earlier in the year have not been vaguely close to the $1.0 Trln plus that Trump keeps on talking about, which is unsurprising as this has been a very typical pattern after both previous tax cuts in the past 25 years, with many of the external dollars, either tied up as collateral against corporate borrowing, or needed for the operation of foreign subsidiaries. Month and quarter end next week should help to put a near-term cap on the rise in yields, but the trend is likely to resume in Q4.
** Norway, Switzerland & South Africa - Rate Decisions **
- Norges Bank is expected to deliver on a very well telegraphed initial 25bps rate hike to 0.75%, its first in seven years, and the first by a central bank in western Europe for very many years, and as such something of a signal moment. Growth has been solid, while the latest underlying CPI data at 1.9% was effectively at target. Norges Bank will be updating its forecast, and by extension its rate path trajectory indication, though the latter will probably leave markets discounting two further 25bps hikes (i.e. to 1.25%) by Q3 of 2019. As for the SNB, the strength of Q2 GDP (augmented by relatively sharp upward revisions to Q1 and 2017 GDP, and indeed to govt GDP forecast projections yesterday) gives scope for a slightly less accommodative tone, but with the CHF strengthening, it will doubtless signal (once again) that it is still some distance from an exit. The latter all the more so as the gentle uptrend in CPI over the past year has stalled around 1.2% y/y, still materially short of the SNB's 2.0% target. The SNB will doubtless highlight that with trade tensions elevated, and the political situations in Italy and Turkey, the risk of further safe haven flows into the CHF remain elevated, and as such it stands ready to resume FX interventions, if needed. It seems safe to assume that the SNB is not, nor will it be willing to tighten policy before the ECB. In the EM space, South Africa's SARB is expected to keep rates on hold at 6.50%, with yesterday's CPI dipping unexpectedly to 4.9% y/y (from 5.1% headline and 4.2% y/y from 4.3% on core, i.e. well within its 4-6% target range, the case for standing pat is strong. Obviously the dive in the ZAR, as with so many EM currencies, does impart some upside risks on inflation going forward, and by extension interest rates, but with growth weak, and Unemployment high, the SARB is unlikely to sound a genuinely hawkish note, even if it does suggest that the next move in rates is likely to be up, rather than down.
** U.K. - August Retail Sales **
- Following on from yesterday's higher than expected CPI, paced above all by rises in Clothing, beverages, and event ticket prices, though primarily due to base effects, attention turns to Retail Sales. This series has been something of a roller coaster which is seen persisting, with soft surveys (BRC, Visa, Barclaycard) doubtless predicating the consensus forecast-0.2% m/m headline following July's +0.7% and June's -0.5%, which would leave the more reliable 3mth/3mth comparison in marginally positive territory. However the risks look to be on the downside in the wake of the CPI data (given that this data is inflation adjusted), particularly due to the jump in clothing and beverage prices.
** U.S.A. - August Existing Home Sales **
- As with a number of other housing sector data and surveys, Existing Home Sales have been slipping backwards for a number of months, even though the absolute level of sales remains at solid levels on any historical comparison. A modest rebound of just 0.5% m/m to a 5.37 Mln SAAR pace is expected, thus breaking a run of four consecutive monthly declines, which have been predicated as much by the rise in mortgage rates and thus affordability considerations at the lower end of the market, they have also clearly been restrained for a longer period by low levels of inventories, even if the weaker sales in recent months have to some extent ameliorated the situation, such that July's 4.3 months was in fact the best level since September 2016, though it still remains at the low end of historical ranges. While July's Pending Home Sales -0.7% m/m tends to suggest some downside risks, the pick-up in both of this week's NAHB survey's sales measures (current and expected) offers a strong counter, the more so as the two official measures have been out of sync for quite some time.
from Marc Ostwald
Attachments
08:20 (6 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting strong NZ Q2 GDP ahead of UK Retail Saels, US weekly jobless
claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing & Existing Homes Sales: SNB, Norges
Bank and SARB rate decisions, Praet speech; Govt bond auctions in France,
Spain, UK and USA
- SNB rate decision- resolutely on hold, may ratchet up FX intervention
threat
- Norges Bank: first rate hike in 7 years, all eyes on economic and rate
trajectory forecasts
- South Africa: SARB on hold, lower than expected CPI alleviates any
pressure from ZAR weakness
- UK Retail Sales: surveys predicate expected dip, CPI data implies
downside risks
- US Existing Home Sales: first (modest) rise in 5 months expected,
still low inventories and to a lesser extent affordability present
headwinds
- Charts: China LNG import prices by source, India Petrol Prices, US 10-yr
yield, US IG and HY Corp bond average spreads, EUR/NOK
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Once again, escaping the shackles of trade tensions and politics will prove difficult, despite a reasonably busy schedule of data and events, though equity markets will be primarily focused on tomorrow's quadruple witching in futures and options. Statistically the overnight NZ Q2 GDP precedes the UK Retail Sales, along with US weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey and Existing Home Sales. There are central bank policy meetings in Switzerland, Norway and South Africa, while ECB's Praet is the only central bank speaker of note. On a busy day for govt bond auctions, France offers medium-dated and inflation-linked OATs, Spain sells a mix of Bonos in the 3 to 10-yr maturity spectrum, the UK re-opens its current 10-yr benchmark Gilt, while the US sells 10-yr TIPS. While demand at the auctions should be helped by the recent US Treasury lead rise in govt bond prices, there is clearly growing concern about why Treasury 10-yr yields should have broken out of the tight 21 bps trading range that had prevailed since 1 July. The answer is as ever not a single factor, but an accumulation of diverse elements. For all that the most recent CPI data was lower than expected, it remains very clearly above the Fed's target (though not in signalling a major uptrend), and with wages finally showing signs of acceleration, markets have belatedly come to the realization that the Fed is very much intent on raising rates to its short-term trajectory (3.25%-3.50% in 2020), rather than the medium-term neutral rate (2.75%-3.0%): per se Treasury yields and TIPS breakeven inflation rates have been under-pricing that risk. Why now? More than likely the key prompt came from Ms Brainard's speech last week, but seasonally typical high levels of corporate issuance (month t date just shy of $120 Bln in terms of IG volumes). In addition the front loading of US Corporate Pension fund purchases of Treasuries due to tax advantages that expired on 15 September reduces demand going into Q4, just as the Fed ups its balance sheet reduction programme to the assumed peak pace of $50 Bn per months, while the US Treasury ups its borrowing volume, and EM central banks looking to defend their currencies reducing their FX reserves, and by extension their holdings of Treasuries. Last but not least the inflows to the US as a result of the corproate tax earlier in the year have not been vaguely close to the $1.0 Trln plus that Trump keeps on talking about, which is unsurprising as this has been a very typical pattern after both previous tax cuts in the past 25 years, with many of the external dollars, either tied up as collateral against corporate borrowing, or needed for the operation of foreign subsidiaries. Month and quarter end next week should help to put a near-term cap on the rise in yields, but the trend is likely to resume in Q4.
** Norway, Switzerland & South Africa - Rate Decisions **
- Norges Bank is expected to deliver on a very well telegraphed initial 25bps rate hike to 0.75%, its first in seven years, and the first by a central bank in western Europe for very many years, and as such something of a signal moment. Growth has been solid, while the latest underlying CPI data at 1.9% was effectively at target. Norges Bank will be updating its forecast, and by extension its rate path trajectory indication, though the latter will probably leave markets discounting two further 25bps hikes (i.e. to 1.25%) by Q3 of 2019. As for the SNB, the strength of Q2 GDP (augmented by relatively sharp upward revisions to Q1 and 2017 GDP, and indeed to govt GDP forecast projections yesterday) gives scope for a slightly less accommodative tone, but with the CHF strengthening, it will doubtless signal (once again) that it is still some distance from an exit. The latter all the more so as the gentle uptrend in CPI over the past year has stalled around 1.2% y/y, still materially short of the SNB's 2.0% target. The SNB will doubtless highlight that with trade tensions elevated, and the political situations in Italy and Turkey, the risk of further safe haven flows into the CHF remain elevated, and as such it stands ready to resume FX interventions, if needed. It seems safe to assume that the SNB is not, nor will it be willing to tighten policy before the ECB. In the EM space, South Africa's SARB is expected to keep rates on hold at 6.50%, with yesterday's CPI dipping unexpectedly to 4.9% y/y (from 5.1% headline and 4.2% y/y from 4.3% on core, i.e. well within its 4-6% target range, the case for standing pat is strong. Obviously the dive in the ZAR, as with so many EM currencies, does impart some upside risks on inflation going forward, and by extension interest rates, but with growth weak, and Unemployment high, the SARB is unlikely to sound a genuinely hawkish note, even if it does suggest that the next move in rates is likely to be up, rather than down.
** U.K. - August Retail Sales **
- Following on from yesterday's higher than expected CPI, paced above all by rises in Clothing, beverages, and event ticket prices, though primarily due to base effects, attention turns to Retail Sales. This series has been something of a roller coaster which is seen persisting, with soft surveys (BRC, Visa, Barclaycard) doubtless predicating the consensus forecast-0.2% m/m headline following July's +0.7% and June's -0.5%, which would leave the more reliable 3mth/3mth comparison in marginally positive territory. However the risks look to be on the downside in the wake of the CPI data (given that this data is inflation adjusted), particularly due to the jump in clothing and beverage prices.
** U.S.A. - August Existing Home Sales **
- As with a number of other housing sector data and surveys, Existing Home Sales have been slipping backwards for a number of months, even though the absolute level of sales remains at solid levels on any historical comparison. A modest rebound of just 0.5% m/m to a 5.37 Mln SAAR pace is expected, thus breaking a run of four consecutive monthly declines, which have been predicated as much by the rise in mortgage rates and thus affordability considerations at the lower end of the market, they have also clearly been restrained for a longer period by low levels of inventories, even if the weaker sales in recent months have to some extent ameliorated the situation, such that July's 4.3 months was in fact the best level since September 2016, though it still remains at the low end of historical ranges. While July's Pending Home Sales -0.7% m/m tends to suggest some downside risks, the pick-up in both of this week's NAHB survey's sales measures (current and expected) offers a strong counter, the more so as the two official measures have been out of sync for quite some time.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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DAX
should be in rez
should be in rez
Dentalfloss
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close up
12270-12300 bigger rez area
12270-12300 bigger rez area
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
DAX
should be in rez
heading for this now
Dentalfloss
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updated
Dentalfloss
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lowest..5 cents on 5 min/1 min data to pick up supp/rez
1 min bars for breakouts
most of the action is after Nymex open/midday/uk
occasionally yu get a big move before that..not often
5 cent by 2 rev on 5 min hilo
updated
I read this as it's broken minor support and now 12250 is rez...go short here?
Dentalfloss
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OIL over last 3 days
Dentalfloss
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2 rev....too messy on 5 cent box size
on hilo plot
on hilo plot
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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12250 lining up
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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12250 is the pivot area
OCO....for the pump or dump
imho
OCO....for the pump or dump
imho
