Trading with point and figure

updated
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cantagril said:
Morning!

Back on the chain gang:)

Still got quite a bit of other stuff to do this week so in and out.

UJ - Long from last night 111.80 Target 112.15 - so far, so good.....
Click to expand...

Out at 112.16 + 36 - could have had another 10 pips out of that one. Too much fear, too little greed:cheesy:
 
- US trade tariff imposition on China likely to reduce modest data and events
schedule to walk on role; US NAHB Housing Index and Polish Employment &
Wages the only data of note; Draghi & other ECB speakers, Hungary rate
decision, tense UN General Assembly meeting; German 2-yr auction

- USA/China: not only a trade war, but a battle for global economic
hegemony

- US NAHB Housing Index: further dip expected, still robust, but confluence
of supply and to a lesser extent demand factors present headwinds

- Charts: USD/CNY, US 10-yr yield and WTI Oil future

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

While today's schedule has a little more to offer than Monday's did, it will likely struggle to displace politics and trade tensions from their 'front and centre' position in terms of market moving items, above all given the confirmation of the US imposition of an initial 10% of trade tariffs on Chinese goods, which will rise to 25% by the end of the year. This is now a trade war and more, and it would be foolish to assume that Trump has any (or perhaps ever had) any intention of negotiating (his variety of sociopathic narcissism does not have this in his skillset / mental make-up, and thus cannot see that there is no 'for the win' in a trade war), as this is now primarily about which country leads the global economy, in other words a "Thucydides trap" (see our colleague Lauren Judd's article on the topic in the most recent Ghost in the Machine - see pages 14-15 https://content.yudu.com/web/400wi/0A400wk/JULYAUGUST2018/html/index.html?page=2&origin=reader ). The key question now is the extent of the fall-out, in terms of the drag on the global economy. Outside of this, the US NAHB survey and perhaps Canada's Manufacturing Sales are the only major items of data, though Italian Orders nd Polish Wages & Employment bear a little scrutiny. The events schedule is a little busier with the wholly unsurprising September RBA minutes to digest ahead of a gaggle of ECB speakers including Draghi and an expected no change rate decision in Hunary, along with a speech by Italian Economy Minister Tria (particularly sensitive in the context of current Italy Budget negotiations). There are also a few other key political events - the North/South Korea summit, Barnier's briefing on Brexit negotiations, and a likely very fraught UN General Assembly meeting (above all in respect of Iran and Russia). Germany also holds a 2-yr Schatz auction.

** U.S.A. -Sept NAHB Housing Market Index **
- The consensus looks for a modest dip to 66 from August's 67, which would on the one hand still be robust by any historical standard, but would still be the lowest reading in a year. The 'weakness' or rather headwinds are in many respects supply side related, with rising input costs crushing margins at the low end of the housing market, with a lack of suitable plots for development in areas of strong demand providing a further challenge. Rising mortgage rates are a much smaller headwind, though the fall in the 6-month sales expectations index to 21 month low of 72 suggests homebuilders have been factoring lower (though not low) levels into their expectations due to the confluence of these various factors.

================

From Marc Osteald
 
dentist007 said:
Good to have you back.We were worried that your broker had sent round a hit man...taking all their profits
Click to expand...

I wish!! The profits I mean....the various other hit men keep me agile enough as it is.

On the subject of profits - as for some inexplicable reason people keep giving me far more work than I expected and my trading is therefore much reduced, I've been considering changing my approach. Of late, I've been messing about with small positions and very often just do one lot at a time - this sort of works in that after the wash cycle is over I generally come out on the plus side despite my tendency to do really really stupid things.

I have been mulling that rather than continuing to trade when I'm supposed to be thinking (or doing) things for my clients that I should reduce trading but scale up at the same time....in the possibly vain hope that the trades I won't be doing are the crap ones:)

Anyway, my point (I know, I know, you thought I didn't have one) is this: I'm looking at dipping my toe in the water with futures, after a gap of 25 odd years and any brokers I did know have either sold out/up, scarpered or kicked the bucket....so I don't have any contacts and don't know anybody from that world any more; so I was wondering if you had any ideas for a futures broker, what with you having a few miles on the clock and all.

All gifts gratefully received:p
 
UJ - Long again at 111.95 Target 112.50 ish

Probably unwise but as we seem to be in support in 90/95 area and it's still looking fairly perky I thought it worth a punt... a single squid lot so not much to worry about:)
 
Morning!

When you get a chance please, can you post an updated Dax pnf 8x3 15 min. I'm out today
 
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