Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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downtrend is easy to pick out
it is a falling knife.....still
hardly recoiled
poss oversold and bouncing from horizontal support
it is a falling knife.....still
hardly recoiled
poss oversold and bouncing from horizontal support
Dentalfloss
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price movement
poss consolidation and a test of rez
or
trend continuation.....Down
Only thing we can do is
1.look for a vertical count to be established
2.mark out rez and see the reaction
bears will go for a kill at test of rez
dunno who will win at this point
gut feeling is a bounce to trigger stops....early on
as always....could be wrong
poss consolidation and a test of rez
or
trend continuation.....Down
Only thing we can do is
1.look for a vertical count to be established
2.mark out rez and see the reaction
bears will go for a kill at test of rez
dunno who will win at this point
gut feeling is a bounce to trigger stops....early on
as always....could be wrong
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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from that chart.It started a new downtrend on Thursday
is it a pullback or a downtrend
i will look later at point and figure
doing all this on my phone
is it a pullback or a downtrend
i will look later at point and figure
doing all this on my phone
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
We should be in a major supp area...alot of noise taken out of that chart
supp goes down to 7392 area on those inputs
we might be able to get 7380...ish...if we are lucky
decent area to take a swing/short term... and keep the stop tight
We should be in a major supp area...alot of noise taken out of that chart
supp goes down to 7392 area on those inputs
we might be able to get 7380...ish...if we are lucky
decent area to take a swing/short term... and keep the stop tight
Dentalfloss
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REZ starts at 7450 area
Dentalfloss
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Very short term
Dentalfloss
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7460-7476 should be a decent rez area..need to see what kind of pullback we get from there
if it goes lower than 7430...then we watch the price action for bulls to appear...if at all
bears will want to see 7400-7440 as rez on a bounce
can only asseess it properly....on the day
price action changes constantly and levels can get blown out
levels are there only as a guide...it is price action that we trade
if it goes lower than 7430...then we watch the price action for bulls to appear...if at all
bears will want to see 7400-7440 as rez on a bounce
can only asseess it properly....on the day
price action changes constantly and levels can get blown out
levels are there only as a guide...it is price action that we trade
Dentalfloss
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Dow
its more of a pullback at this point in time...than a new downtrend
that could change
bears need to get it under that aqua trendline.....and keep it under
its more of a pullback at this point in time...than a new downtrend
that could change
bears need to get it under that aqua trendline.....and keep it under
Dentalfloss
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bears need to keep it under 25940....ish if aqua breaks
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Quiet start to busy week for data and central bank speakers, with US &
Canada closed for holidays; politics and trade still front and centre
as threats to topple May, negative Barnier comments, mooted publication
of Mueller investigation report, and Trump comments on NAFTA to digest
- Asia Manufacturing PMIs: still overall rather sluggish, but in general
improving on the month
- Europe Manufacturing PMIs expected to evidence concern about trade
tensions
- Turkey CPI/PPI: even worse than expected, pipeline pressures still
accelerating
- Charts: Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Turkey CPI & PPI, GBP/USD
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As noted below, the week gets off to a slow start due to the Labour Day holiday in North America, though the run of Manufacturing PMIs from Asia and Europe should offer plenty of food for thought. For all that the Asian PMIs were not especially strong in absolute terms, the majority of readings showed some improvement on the month, perhaps signalling that actual order flows and business activity has not as yet been impacted in major way by the array of trade tensions. European readings have been mixed with a steep decline in Sweden (52.5 vs. 57.4) countered by a solid gain in Ireland (57.5 vs. 56.3), though the Eurozone reading is expected to remain subdued, while the UK PMI is seen little changed at 53.9. However it is politics which will likely be the dominant influence amid turmoil in the UK Conservative Party amid threats to topple Mrs May, and a very negative set of comments from EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier on the Chequers Brexit proposals, which has unsurprisingly prompted the GBP to give back all of last week's gains. Across the pond, there is some speculation that the Mueller investigation's highly anticipated report may be released to this week avoid falling within 60 days of the mid-term election, and Trump's comments on Canada suggest he is looking to throw Canada under the bus in terms of a revised NAFTA trade deal, thus confirming stories that did the rounds last week that Trump simply does not want to negotiate, which in behavioural terms is frankly totally disgraceful. The EM sector's woes will find their focus in today's Turkish CPI and PPI, the former turning out to be even worse than expected at 2.3% m/m 17.9% y/y vs. a forecast of 17.6% y/y and July's 15.85%, while PPI was even worse at 32.1% y/y vs. July's 25.0%, and thus signalling still very considerable pipeline pressures for CPI, which will be exacerbated by the government's decision at the weekend to hike energy utility prices by up to 15%. The Turkish situation now has very strong echoes of the Thai/Asia/Russia debt crisis of 1997/98.
RECAP - The Week Ahead - Preview: 03 to 07 September 2018
With Monday's US & Canada Labour Day traditionally signalling the end of the summer holiday season, market trading volumes (and corporate bond issuance) should start to pick up. The deluge of G7 central bank speakers throughout the week may offer the one or other prompt, though politics, above all trade tensions, will continue to provide the main mood music, as has been the case for most of this year. The statistical schedule for the first week of the month is very standardized, featuring PMIs, US & Canadian labour data, Japanese Wages and German Orders, and it will also be a busy week for Australian data. The corporate earnings schedule is modest, while the Euro area tops the govt bond auction calendar with sales in Germany, Austria, France and Spain.
- The week kicks off with PMIs with the focus above all on how much Trade tensions are weighing on Manufacturing sector sentiment, as appeared to be evident in the G7 flash PMIs, with forecasts in general assuming little change vs. August. The US labour data forecasts have an all too familiar feel to them with Payrolls seen up 190K, Average Hourly Earnings up 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 2.7% y/y, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to dip back down to its cyclical low of 3.8%, i.e. another strong report, though with no sign of wage pressures (above all in real terms). After soft readings in July, US Auto Sales are forecast to pick up modestly, and Construction Spending to rebound 0.5%, with the Trade deficit forecast to widen to its worst level since March. Japan looks to Q2 CapEx, with the expected pickup to 6.5% y/y vs. Q1 3.4%, predicated on the better than expected Business Spending component in preliminary Q2 GDP, but it will be the Labor Cash Earnings (wages) which attracts most attention, with forecasters looking for a drop back to a still healthy 2.4% y/y from the 21 year high of 3.6% in June, which would still match the previous cyclical high, with Real Earnings seen at 1.1%. German Factory Orders will be of particular interest after a rather anomalous looking slide of -4.0% m/m in June, with a rebound of 1.8% m/m expected, which would be modest given that indications from survey data (above all VDMA Orders) and Bundesbank monthly reports suggest a marked acceleration in activity after a very poor Q1 and a sluggish start to Q2; Germany & France also see Trade and Industrial Production. UK data is very much of the second division variety with PMIs accompanied by BRC Retail Sales (and other consumer spending surveys), SMMT New Car Registrations and Halifax House Prices, though clearly all UK data is now deeply subordinate to news on Brexit negotiations progress. Australia sees two further components of Q2 GDP - Inventories and Current Account - in addition to the normal start of month run of Retail Sales, Trade Balance and Housing Finance. Turkey tops a busy run of inflation data in the EM space (CPI forecast 1.8% m/m 17.4% y/y vs. July's 15.9%), with Brazil and Indonesia also likely to see further upward pressure on consumer prices due to local currency weakness. Next Saturday has the latest China Trade data.
- Canada's BoC and Australia's RBA are both expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.50%, and in both cases these are non-policy report/press conference meetings, and in Canada's case likely to reinforce market expectations of a further rate hike in October, while the RBA is seen hiking rates at the very earliest in September 2019. Sweden's Riksbank is also seen on hold at -0.50%, though the glacial shift to signalling a rate hike in the not too distant future is likely to be augmented. There will be numerous Fed, ECB and BoJ speakers, while Carney and other BoE MPC members will testify on the August rate hike and Q3 Inflation Report to the Treasury Select Committee, which will likely be hijacked by Brexit related questions, many of which will be tedious, but should also see some discussion of the status of preparations for the financial sector. In the EM / CEE space, there are rate setting meetings in Poland, Chile, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Moldova, Serbia, Tajikistan and Ukraine - all of which seem likely to see rates held.
- Corporate earnings highlights are likely to include Barratt Developments, Bayer, Broadcom, Dell and WPP.
- The week also sees a number of major international and/ or country conferences - UN Climate Change, the Beijing Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Egypt and Brazil - while the Euro Group meeting at the end of the week is scheduled to discuss the EIB, interest rates, crypto assets, digital taxation and structural reforms.
From Marc Ostwald
Canada closed for holidays; politics and trade still front and centre
as threats to topple May, negative Barnier comments, mooted publication
of Mueller investigation report, and Trump comments on NAFTA to digest
- Asia Manufacturing PMIs: still overall rather sluggish, but in general
improving on the month
- Europe Manufacturing PMIs expected to evidence concern about trade
tensions
- Turkey CPI/PPI: even worse than expected, pipeline pressures still
accelerating
- Charts: Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Turkey CPI & PPI, GBP/USD
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As noted below, the week gets off to a slow start due to the Labour Day holiday in North America, though the run of Manufacturing PMIs from Asia and Europe should offer plenty of food for thought. For all that the Asian PMIs were not especially strong in absolute terms, the majority of readings showed some improvement on the month, perhaps signalling that actual order flows and business activity has not as yet been impacted in major way by the array of trade tensions. European readings have been mixed with a steep decline in Sweden (52.5 vs. 57.4) countered by a solid gain in Ireland (57.5 vs. 56.3), though the Eurozone reading is expected to remain subdued, while the UK PMI is seen little changed at 53.9. However it is politics which will likely be the dominant influence amid turmoil in the UK Conservative Party amid threats to topple Mrs May, and a very negative set of comments from EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier on the Chequers Brexit proposals, which has unsurprisingly prompted the GBP to give back all of last week's gains. Across the pond, there is some speculation that the Mueller investigation's highly anticipated report may be released to this week avoid falling within 60 days of the mid-term election, and Trump's comments on Canada suggest he is looking to throw Canada under the bus in terms of a revised NAFTA trade deal, thus confirming stories that did the rounds last week that Trump simply does not want to negotiate, which in behavioural terms is frankly totally disgraceful. The EM sector's woes will find their focus in today's Turkish CPI and PPI, the former turning out to be even worse than expected at 2.3% m/m 17.9% y/y vs. a forecast of 17.6% y/y and July's 15.85%, while PPI was even worse at 32.1% y/y vs. July's 25.0%, and thus signalling still very considerable pipeline pressures for CPI, which will be exacerbated by the government's decision at the weekend to hike energy utility prices by up to 15%. The Turkish situation now has very strong echoes of the Thai/Asia/Russia debt crisis of 1997/98.
RECAP - The Week Ahead - Preview: 03 to 07 September 2018
With Monday's US & Canada Labour Day traditionally signalling the end of the summer holiday season, market trading volumes (and corporate bond issuance) should start to pick up. The deluge of G7 central bank speakers throughout the week may offer the one or other prompt, though politics, above all trade tensions, will continue to provide the main mood music, as has been the case for most of this year. The statistical schedule for the first week of the month is very standardized, featuring PMIs, US & Canadian labour data, Japanese Wages and German Orders, and it will also be a busy week for Australian data. The corporate earnings schedule is modest, while the Euro area tops the govt bond auction calendar with sales in Germany, Austria, France and Spain.
- The week kicks off with PMIs with the focus above all on how much Trade tensions are weighing on Manufacturing sector sentiment, as appeared to be evident in the G7 flash PMIs, with forecasts in general assuming little change vs. August. The US labour data forecasts have an all too familiar feel to them with Payrolls seen up 190K, Average Hourly Earnings up 0.2% m/m for an unchanged 2.7% y/y, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to dip back down to its cyclical low of 3.8%, i.e. another strong report, though with no sign of wage pressures (above all in real terms). After soft readings in July, US Auto Sales are forecast to pick up modestly, and Construction Spending to rebound 0.5%, with the Trade deficit forecast to widen to its worst level since March. Japan looks to Q2 CapEx, with the expected pickup to 6.5% y/y vs. Q1 3.4%, predicated on the better than expected Business Spending component in preliminary Q2 GDP, but it will be the Labor Cash Earnings (wages) which attracts most attention, with forecasters looking for a drop back to a still healthy 2.4% y/y from the 21 year high of 3.6% in June, which would still match the previous cyclical high, with Real Earnings seen at 1.1%. German Factory Orders will be of particular interest after a rather anomalous looking slide of -4.0% m/m in June, with a rebound of 1.8% m/m expected, which would be modest given that indications from survey data (above all VDMA Orders) and Bundesbank monthly reports suggest a marked acceleration in activity after a very poor Q1 and a sluggish start to Q2; Germany & France also see Trade and Industrial Production. UK data is very much of the second division variety with PMIs accompanied by BRC Retail Sales (and other consumer spending surveys), SMMT New Car Registrations and Halifax House Prices, though clearly all UK data is now deeply subordinate to news on Brexit negotiations progress. Australia sees two further components of Q2 GDP - Inventories and Current Account - in addition to the normal start of month run of Retail Sales, Trade Balance and Housing Finance. Turkey tops a busy run of inflation data in the EM space (CPI forecast 1.8% m/m 17.4% y/y vs. July's 15.9%), with Brazil and Indonesia also likely to see further upward pressure on consumer prices due to local currency weakness. Next Saturday has the latest China Trade data.
- Canada's BoC and Australia's RBA are both expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.50%, and in both cases these are non-policy report/press conference meetings, and in Canada's case likely to reinforce market expectations of a further rate hike in October, while the RBA is seen hiking rates at the very earliest in September 2019. Sweden's Riksbank is also seen on hold at -0.50%, though the glacial shift to signalling a rate hike in the not too distant future is likely to be augmented. There will be numerous Fed, ECB and BoJ speakers, while Carney and other BoE MPC members will testify on the August rate hike and Q3 Inflation Report to the Treasury Select Committee, which will likely be hijacked by Brexit related questions, many of which will be tedious, but should also see some discussion of the status of preparations for the financial sector. In the EM / CEE space, there are rate setting meetings in Poland, Chile, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Moldova, Serbia, Tajikistan and Ukraine - all of which seem likely to see rates held.
- Corporate earnings highlights are likely to include Barratt Developments, Bayer, Broadcom, Dell and WPP.
- The week also sees a number of major international and/ or country conferences - UN Climate Change, the Beijing Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, Egypt and Brazil - while the Euro Group meeting at the end of the week is scheduled to discuss the EIB, interest rates, crypto assets, digital taxation and structural reforms.
From Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Out at .9020 +42
C
cantagril
EG
Short .9025 Target .9010
Short .9025 Target .9010
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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