Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Pole/50% area marked

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow
no support...as yet

 

[Dentalfloss]

M"Lud
Excellent call on usdcad

 

[Dentalfloss]

Definitely aristocracy now

 

[Dentalfloss]

- A relatively subdued schedule likely to find its focal points in digesting
China Trade data and BoJ 'summary of opinions'; Brazil inflation, speech by
Fed's Barkin and RBNZ rate decision the other items of note; UK and US 10-yr
govt bond auctions and more corporate earnings

- Japan: BoJ increasingly divided on policy efficacy and outlook, reinforces
need to be wary, sceptical on policy outlook

- China Trade: sharp rise in imports less a function of improving demand,
and more related to trade tensions and hot weather

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The overnight China Trade data and the 'summary of opinions' from last week's YCC tweak BoJ meeting are likely to be the items with the most enduring impact on markets on what is a relatively thin day for data. France's BOF Industry Sentiment, Spanish Industrial Production and Brazil's IBGE Inflation IPCA being the only other statistics of any note, while speeches by RBA's Lowe and Richmond Fed's Barkin will "warm the plate" for this evening's RBNZ rate decision. In terms of the latter, the recent Q2 labour data did see a pick-up in earnings (0.6% q/q vs. Q1's lowly 0.3%), but certainly not in a way that would prompt the RBNZ to shift from a neutral stance, having suggested at its last meeting (somewhat surprisingly) that the next move in rates could be up or down. Govt bond supply sees 10-yr auctions in the UK and USA, while the corporate earnings schedule has among its highlights: Ahold Delhaize, E.on, Glencore, Munich Re, Prudential, VoestAlpine in Europe, and across the pond: CenturyLink, CVS Health, Keurig Dr Pepper & 21st Century Fox.

In terms of the overnight news, the 'summary of opinions' from last week's BoJ meeting underline that the board remains heavily divided in terms of how it should proceed, with one side clearly adhering to the 'spaghetti principle' (throw enough against a wall and some of it will stick), and those focussed on the damage and risks that are accumulating from the prolonged period of monetary easing. Per se, markets are right to remain wary that the BoJ may well start to wind down its QQE measures sooner rather later, even if "sooner" may well still be a year away. In respect of China's trade data, the key feature overall was the much stronger than expected 27.3% y/y rise in Imports, which looks to be a function of a number of factors: a) a desire to replenish stocks in anticipation of a further fall in the CNY and US trade tariff related disruption, above all iron ore; b) in the case of the drop in Soy imports, a rush to source alternative suppliers in recent months (above all Brazil) to the US has left processors labouring under a mountain of inventory; c) the rise in coal imports is due to a combination of the hot weather raising energy demand, and thus necessitating increased imports given that environmental controls restrict the use of 'dirtier' domestically produced coal; d) a rise in oil imports was paced by a modest recovery in demand from so-called 'teapot' refiners, some of whom have been sidelined due to maintenance closures, but is also due to an improvement in refining margins; e) the rise in Aluminium exports looks to be a function of a weaker Yuan and resulting arbitrage opportunities internationally. But overall this will do little to assuage concerns about the escalating trade tensions with the US, or the outlook for the Chinese economy, with the modest narrowing of the trade surplus with the US from June's record hardly indicative of a trend turn.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

Ftse in a pivot area 7741

 

[cantagril]

M"Lud
Excellent call on usdcad

I should be feeling quite smug but whilst the call was right my execution of it was rubbish. I estimate that I took less than half what I should have done. Really really must try harder

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100 in rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

Ftse on a sell according to Mould finance

 

[inzimam]

Dax smashed through rez

 

[inzimam]

Another fake?

 

[Dentalfloss]

DXY in a pivot area

 

[Dentalfloss]

cable
a poss buy...with a tight stop
could be very bumpy

 

[Dentalfloss]

here is the right chart

 

[Dentalfloss]

cable
oversold now

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable

 

[inzimam]

12720 next decent rez on the Dax per my charts.

Dentist, do you concur?

 

[Dentalfloss]

12720 next decent rez on the Dax per my charts.

Dentist, do you concur?

12660 pivot area

 

[Dentalfloss]

Another fake?

could be
if Dow unwinds

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100 in rez

whacked