Trading with point and figure

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NAZ 100...poss top forming..or just pulling back
difficult to call
AAPL Tues..after the bell

 

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Trade wars

 

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USDJPY
bounced off our pivot area yesterday
Dontya just lurve those "one liners"

 

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DAX into the open
starting to hit some horizontal rez

 

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poss pivot area

 

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Cable
in supp now
will it hold..??

 

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Ostwald, Marc
14:28 (17 hours ago)
to Marc
Post ECB thoughts - Underlining guidance 'flexibility' the only material take home from today

- As is often the case, Draghi's opening statement at the press conference flagged that this was to be one of his Trichet meme days, where every question is killed dead, or merely regurgitates what has already been said, or written in the statement. He stressed there that "we don't see the need to modify or to add new language to our forward guidance on rates", which underlines that the council is now carving out some flexibility, i.e. room for manoeuvre on policy, and per se is tip-toeing away on guidance, and this applies to the small contingency on ending QE in December. He also asserted that "money market expectations are very well aligned with the governing council's'. As for the mooted 'Operation Twist' on its reinvestments, Draghi said that there was "no discussion on reinvestments", adding that "we have not discussed when to discuss reinvestments". Otherwise he continued to sound upbeat on the growth, inflation and even nominal wage growth outlook, while highlighting trade related uncertainties as a key risk.

In other words: 'move along, nothing to see here', 'have a nice summer holiday' and 'see you on September 13th'.... when they will have to tell us what is happening with that EUR 432 Bln LTRO expiry!

..........................................................................

Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International

 

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ftse over the last week

 

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- Digesting better than expected, but low Tokyo CPI, soft French Q2 GDP;
all eyes on US Q2 advance GDP and BoJ ops to dampen 10-yr JGB yield
rise; Russia rates on hold; G-20 Agricultural Ministers meeting

- US Q2 GDP: market consensus now above all regional Fed GDPNow estimates;
big one-off boosts seen from Net Exports and Govt spending, further solid
contribution from Business Investment, Personal Consumption to bounce;
Housing likely flat to negative, inventories the wild card; annual
revisions also due

- Russia rates: inflation outlook precludes further easing for the time
being

- Week Ahead: BoJ and BoE in focus, FOMC and RBA also meet; PMIs, US
payrolls and run of Japan activity accompany another bust week for
earnings

- Charts / Tables: 10-yr JGB yield, France Q2 GDP contributions, BoE, BoJ,
ECB, Fed & RBA rate expectations, US Corp Credit spreads & WTI Oil

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The day's schedule is relatively modest, but with Japanese Tokyo CPI (still very low, but marginally better than forecast) and the advance Q2 GDP readings from France (missing forecasts at 0.2% q/q 1.7% y/y on a drag from trade, though flattered by inventories) and the USA, it has first division data to digest. The events and indeed the corporate earnings calendar is also modest, featuring the Russia rate decision and a G20 meeting of Agricultural ministers, which is both topical in terms of trade tensions, as well as the volume of extreme weather globally. Attention will also drift towards next week's relatively busy schedule, which includes the BoE rate decision (exp. +25 bps to 0.75%) and Inflation Report, which is preceded by the much discussed BoJ meeting (QQE policy tweaks in focus) and no change decisions from the Fed and RBA (see various attached tables on rate probabilities), along with Eurozone CPI and a host of European prov Q2 GDP readings and the US labour report, along with the usual month end run of Japanese activity data, PMIs globally and US Consumer Confidence. Russia's Bank Rossi is expected to hold its key rate at 7.25%, the more so given that while CPI remains well behaved (last 2.5% y/y) and the RUB has been broadly stable, the central continues to project an acceleration in CPI to 4.0% by year end, which in effect precludes any thought of easing again any time soon. In terms of the BoJ, speculation remains rife that the net impact of any tweaks made by the BoJ next week, despite expectations that it will revise down its CPI forecasts, will be asset market negative, which left the BoJ fighting a rear-guard action to keep the 10-yr yield JGB below its self-imposed cap, thus far it has conducted two special ops today to offset that move (see 10-yr JGB yield chart), and as we 'go to print' a BoJ official is offering some verbal intervention.

** U.S.A. - Q2 advance GDP **
- The consensus for Q2 GDP is 4.2% (range 3.0%-5.4%), above the the Atlanta Fed's 3.8% but above St Louis Fed's 4.5% GDPnow estimates, though in stark contrast to the equivalent measure from the NY Fed which stands at 2.7%. As a matter of record, if GDP were to match the highest forecast, that would be the strongest quarterly outturn since 2003; it should also be noted that the Commerce Dept also publishes its annual revisions alongside today's Q2 estimate. Yesterday's wider Goods Trade deficit and flat Wholesale Inventories data more than offset the strength seen in core Durables Shipments, and impart some modest downside risks relative to the forecast (say to ca. 3.8%), but this should still see a large one-off boost from Net Exports (ca 0.7 ppt) with overall Private Investment set to make another solid contribution (around the 1.0 ppt seen in recent quarters, despite a likely flat contribution from Residential Housing), and Govt Spending also likely to provide a boost, leaving inventories as the wild cards. It will be the so-called core measures that will get most attention, in so far as the headline will to an extent be heavily flattered by a confluence of tax cut and as well as the bump from agricultural exports (Soybeans being the most likely) looking to beat the introduction of tariffs. Thus Private Consumption, expected to bounce back from a very tepid 0.9% in Q1 to 3.0%, and Final Sales to Domestic Buyers (seen in the 2.8-3.0% vs. Q1 2.1%) will probably be the focal points, and a rather better indication of the current underlying growth rate. Market reaction to a much stronger than expected may perversely be quite negative, in so far as the assumption will be that there will be a sharp pullback in H2 2018.


from Marc Ostwald

 

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DAX into the open
starting to hit some horizontal rez

whacked

 

[inzimam]

Going back for another taste. Dax

 

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Dollar
in a pivot area

 

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our 25585 rez worked well this morning

 

[inzimam]

our 25585 rez worked well this morning

will it hold>?

 

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will it hold>?

Not sure
GDP numbers soon
In theory... We get a consolidation around the target price while market reassesses. THAT has happened

 

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looking at the chart after gdp for counts..approx 2 pm

 

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NAZ 100
above 7424-7430 was fake
maybe this time its real

 

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25585...bang on

 

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some negartivity
counts now active/3 box vertical counts

 

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more detail comin