Dentalfloss
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SPX into the open
OUR rez on Friday stopped it
OUR rez on Friday stopped it
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
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Questions....
will dollar break down from our rez..??
will stock index break down from our rez..???
will dollar break down from our rez..??
will stock index break down from our rez..???
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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updated from 8.26am
touched our rez and dump
excellent stuff
we started a new uptrend
updated chart
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difficult to call......all we can do is track that new uptrend
does our rez win or does the new uptrend win
?????
does our rez win or does the new uptrend win
?????
Dentalfloss
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Bulls are there
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DXY updated
gettin into support area
gettin into support area
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Cable
in a pivot area
in a pivot area
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Naz 100
a tad vertical
a tad vertical
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EURUSD
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Dollar
not quite there yet..imho
not quite there yet..imho
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DXy needs to move down a tad more to test real support..imho
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Ostwald, Marc
Attachments08:39 (46 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting China Q2 GDP and monthly data run, awaiting US Retail Sales
and NY Fed Manufacturing, Polish core CPI, Trump-Putin meeting & EU/China
Trade summit, further US corporate earnings and US 3 & 6 month T-bill
sales
- China GDP / monthly data run: better than expected pick-up in q/q growth,
underlines strength of services and construction; Retail Sales still
disappointing; Private Sector FAI strength sustained
- US Retail Sales: autos to give rare boost to headline, core measures
seen sustaining recent strength, watch revisions
- US NY Fed Manufacturing expected to dip but remain robust, focus on
prices paid and business outlook in face of rising trade tensions
- Poland: NBP likely to boost GDP forecasts, but still sound dovish tone
on policy outlook given very subdued core CPI
- Charts: Contributions to China GDP; US BBB Corp bond spread and US
H2 Corporate Bond returns & CFTC Commodity COT positioning
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy week for data gets off to a flying start with the overnight run of China Q2 GDP and activity data kicking off proceedings, while the US has Retail Sales, the July NY Fed Manufacturing survey and Business Inventories, the latter not per se market sensitive, but important in terms of the US Q2 advance GDP reading. Politics and trade will eminently still cast its long shadow, be that the UK govt tensions on Brexit, intra-Eurozone stand-offs or the US/China/EU trade tensions (keep a close eye on the EU-China Trade summit today), though today's Trump-Putin should be rather less sensitive in market terms, barring a complete trump meltdown, which can never be excluded with any confidence. The US earnings season continues with Bank of America, BlackRock & Netflix topping the schedule. In passing it is worth noting that the US Treasury will up volumes at its wekly 3 & 6 month T-Bill Sales by $3.0 Bln in each maturity to $51.0 Bln and $45.0 Bln respectively. Last but not least some attention needs to be given to Poland's NBP forecast update, which should see an upgrade to GDP forecasts, though inflation forecasts may only be tweaked higher in headline terms due to energy prices. However with today's Polish core CPI expected to remain very subdued at 0.6% y/y (May 0.5%), NBP governor Glapinski may well stick with the suggestion that Polish official rates will remain at current levels and through much of 2019, despite the reservations of a growing number of his monetary policy committee colleagues.
** U.S.A. - June Retail Sales, July NY Fed **
- For once, Auto Sales are likely to give headline Retail Sales a boost, with a robust 0.6% m/m seen, while the other core measures are all seen posting further solid gains of 0.4% m/m, sustaining a solid run of consumer spending numbers since March, after the early year weakness. As a perspective point if forecasts are correct, the 3-mth annualized headline rate of Retail Sales would be 7.0%, while the core 'Control Group' would stand at 6.0%. Revisions will however be key, given that this will be the last key Personal Consumption component to be published ahead of the month ending advance Q2 GDP data. The NY Fed Manufacturing Survey has never been a particularly good proxy for national manufacturing sector trends, but has certainly mirrored the broad strength seen in surveys and official data for most of the year, and a another solid 20.0 reading is expected, slowing from June's unexpectedly strong 25.0. The focus will naturally fall on outlook and price indices for evidence that trade tariffs/tensions are weighing on business sentiment and pressuring input prices.
** China - Q2 GDP, monthly activity data **
- While Q2 GDP was in line with forecasts in y/y terms at 6.7% y/y, the q/q reading rebounded to 1.8% from Q1's 1.4% and vs. an expected 1.6%. While this clearly jars with the run of somewhat disappointing monthly activity, it should be underlined that the latter does not include a proper measure of services activity, which is clearly strengthening as evidenced by Final Consumption making its strongest contribution this decade to overall GDP at 78.5 ppts, helping to offset a very substantial drag from net exports (-9.9 ppts), with Capital Formation little changed at 31.4 ppts). Construction as evidenced by new starts at 11.8% y/y continues to be a key prop, despite the clampdown on and investigation into municipal spending on infrastructure as part of the ongoing anti-graft drive. Retail Sales were modestly better than expected at 9.0% y/y, but remain relatively sluggish given that this follows May's 8.5% y/y 15-year low. Fixed Asset Investment was in line with forecasts, dipping to 6.0% for the Jan-June period from 6.1%, though the encouraging element remains the continued relative strength of Private Sector Investment, picking up to 8.4% y/y from 8.1%. Overall 2018 still looks likely to be in the 6.3-6.5% y/y region, though the cloud of trade tensions with the US continues to impart a high degree of uncertainty.
RECAP Week Ahead - Preview: 16 to 20 July 2018
For the currently rather surreal world of financial markets, the coming week would, in days of yore, have been construed as having a lot of macro event risk, as well as the cloud of trade related and political risks. But that was before 'markets' morphed into something more akin to "Dr Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb" - more than likely a sure sign that unconventional monetary policy and post-GFC regulation has deadened, if not murdered financial markets' reaction function. Be that as it may, it has plenty of major data in the US (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, a raft of housing numbers, NY & Philly Fed surveys), China (Q2 GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FAI, Property Investment) and UK (labour data, CPI, PPI and Retail Sales, PSNB), Japanese and Canadian CPI, Australian Unemployment and Japanese Trade, while Powell's semi-annual testimony is accompanied by the Fed's Beige Book, as the US Q2 earnings season cranks into gear.
- For the US, Retail Sales tops the bill with autos set to give a modest boost to the headline reading for a change this year, offsetting a price related drag from gasoline (headline 0.5%, ex-Autos and 'Control Group' 0.4% m/m), with revisions key as ever key, given this will be the last key Personal Consumption component to be published ahead of the month ending advance Q2 GDP data. Industrial Production should post a solid 0.5% m/m gain (May -0.1%), given the relevant anecdotal survey, and more importantly labour data inputs, with Manufacturing Output set to largely reverse an unexpectedly sharp May -0.7% m/m, with a 0.6% m/m rise in June. The NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast to remain close to its cyclical high at 69 (vs May 68), with Housing Starts seen at 1.32 Mln vs. May's 1.35 Mln, lower on the month, but very robust by any historical standard.
Over in the UK, the run of major monthly data will be significant (along with the very fluid world of UK politics) in terms of confirming or jarring expectations that the BoE's MPC will hike rates by a further 25 bps to 0.7% when it meets in August. In the de nouveau publication cycle, labour data Tuesday precedes the array of inflation data on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday. Among these Average Hourly Earnings are not anticipated to make a compelling case for a rate hike, with headline seen unchanged at 2.5% y/y, and ex-Bonus to dip to 2.7% from 2.8%. Headline CPI is however seen up a modest 0.2% m/m, which would edge the y/y rate up to 2.6% from 2.4%, though core CPI is forecast to be unchanged at a rather less "rate hike compelling" 2.1% y/y. In month to month terms the rise PPI Input should be modest (consensus 0.4%), but still implying a return to a double digit 10.1% y/y rise, but PPI Output Prices are still seen at a relatively subdued 3.2% y/y (from 2.9%) and core Output very well behaved at 2.1% y/y. Following on from the rather more compelling rebound in Retail Sales in May (1.3% m/m), June's Warm weather allied with a boost from the World Cup is projected to rise 0.3% m/m, while the June PSNB budget balance is seen little changed vs May at £3.7 Bln (May £3.4 Bln, though it remains too early in the fiscal year (above all given Brexit related uncertainties) to opine on trends.
- In central bank terms, Powell's testimony to the respective Senate and House Committees follows the already published prepared testimony that offered no surprises, underlining an overall positive outlook. Indonesia's BI is seen holding at 5.25% after June's larger than anticipated 50 bps hike, while policy rates are seen on hold in Angola (18.0%) and South Africa 6.50%). Govt bond supply sees multi-tranche sales in France and Spain, as well as 2 & 30-yr in Germany, 40-yr in the UK and 10-yr TIPS in the USA.
- For US and other corporate earnings highlights, please see the Week Ahead e-mail from Friday
from Marc Ostwald
Attachments08:39 (46 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting China Q2 GDP and monthly data run, awaiting US Retail Sales
and NY Fed Manufacturing, Polish core CPI, Trump-Putin meeting & EU/China
Trade summit, further US corporate earnings and US 3 & 6 month T-bill
sales
- China GDP / monthly data run: better than expected pick-up in q/q growth,
underlines strength of services and construction; Retail Sales still
disappointing; Private Sector FAI strength sustained
- US Retail Sales: autos to give rare boost to headline, core measures
seen sustaining recent strength, watch revisions
- US NY Fed Manufacturing expected to dip but remain robust, focus on
prices paid and business outlook in face of rising trade tensions
- Poland: NBP likely to boost GDP forecasts, but still sound dovish tone
on policy outlook given very subdued core CPI
- Charts: Contributions to China GDP; US BBB Corp bond spread and US
H2 Corporate Bond returns & CFTC Commodity COT positioning
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A busy week for data gets off to a flying start with the overnight run of China Q2 GDP and activity data kicking off proceedings, while the US has Retail Sales, the July NY Fed Manufacturing survey and Business Inventories, the latter not per se market sensitive, but important in terms of the US Q2 advance GDP reading. Politics and trade will eminently still cast its long shadow, be that the UK govt tensions on Brexit, intra-Eurozone stand-offs or the US/China/EU trade tensions (keep a close eye on the EU-China Trade summit today), though today's Trump-Putin should be rather less sensitive in market terms, barring a complete trump meltdown, which can never be excluded with any confidence. The US earnings season continues with Bank of America, BlackRock & Netflix topping the schedule. In passing it is worth noting that the US Treasury will up volumes at its wekly 3 & 6 month T-Bill Sales by $3.0 Bln in each maturity to $51.0 Bln and $45.0 Bln respectively. Last but not least some attention needs to be given to Poland's NBP forecast update, which should see an upgrade to GDP forecasts, though inflation forecasts may only be tweaked higher in headline terms due to energy prices. However with today's Polish core CPI expected to remain very subdued at 0.6% y/y (May 0.5%), NBP governor Glapinski may well stick with the suggestion that Polish official rates will remain at current levels and through much of 2019, despite the reservations of a growing number of his monetary policy committee colleagues.
** U.S.A. - June Retail Sales, July NY Fed **
- For once, Auto Sales are likely to give headline Retail Sales a boost, with a robust 0.6% m/m seen, while the other core measures are all seen posting further solid gains of 0.4% m/m, sustaining a solid run of consumer spending numbers since March, after the early year weakness. As a perspective point if forecasts are correct, the 3-mth annualized headline rate of Retail Sales would be 7.0%, while the core 'Control Group' would stand at 6.0%. Revisions will however be key, given that this will be the last key Personal Consumption component to be published ahead of the month ending advance Q2 GDP data. The NY Fed Manufacturing Survey has never been a particularly good proxy for national manufacturing sector trends, but has certainly mirrored the broad strength seen in surveys and official data for most of the year, and a another solid 20.0 reading is expected, slowing from June's unexpectedly strong 25.0. The focus will naturally fall on outlook and price indices for evidence that trade tariffs/tensions are weighing on business sentiment and pressuring input prices.
** China - Q2 GDP, monthly activity data **
- While Q2 GDP was in line with forecasts in y/y terms at 6.7% y/y, the q/q reading rebounded to 1.8% from Q1's 1.4% and vs. an expected 1.6%. While this clearly jars with the run of somewhat disappointing monthly activity, it should be underlined that the latter does not include a proper measure of services activity, which is clearly strengthening as evidenced by Final Consumption making its strongest contribution this decade to overall GDP at 78.5 ppts, helping to offset a very substantial drag from net exports (-9.9 ppts), with Capital Formation little changed at 31.4 ppts). Construction as evidenced by new starts at 11.8% y/y continues to be a key prop, despite the clampdown on and investigation into municipal spending on infrastructure as part of the ongoing anti-graft drive. Retail Sales were modestly better than expected at 9.0% y/y, but remain relatively sluggish given that this follows May's 8.5% y/y 15-year low. Fixed Asset Investment was in line with forecasts, dipping to 6.0% for the Jan-June period from 6.1%, though the encouraging element remains the continued relative strength of Private Sector Investment, picking up to 8.4% y/y from 8.1%. Overall 2018 still looks likely to be in the 6.3-6.5% y/y region, though the cloud of trade tensions with the US continues to impart a high degree of uncertainty.
RECAP Week Ahead - Preview: 16 to 20 July 2018
For the currently rather surreal world of financial markets, the coming week would, in days of yore, have been construed as having a lot of macro event risk, as well as the cloud of trade related and political risks. But that was before 'markets' morphed into something more akin to "Dr Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb" - more than likely a sure sign that unconventional monetary policy and post-GFC regulation has deadened, if not murdered financial markets' reaction function. Be that as it may, it has plenty of major data in the US (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, a raft of housing numbers, NY & Philly Fed surveys), China (Q2 GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FAI, Property Investment) and UK (labour data, CPI, PPI and Retail Sales, PSNB), Japanese and Canadian CPI, Australian Unemployment and Japanese Trade, while Powell's semi-annual testimony is accompanied by the Fed's Beige Book, as the US Q2 earnings season cranks into gear.
- For the US, Retail Sales tops the bill with autos set to give a modest boost to the headline reading for a change this year, offsetting a price related drag from gasoline (headline 0.5%, ex-Autos and 'Control Group' 0.4% m/m), with revisions key as ever key, given this will be the last key Personal Consumption component to be published ahead of the month ending advance Q2 GDP data. Industrial Production should post a solid 0.5% m/m gain (May -0.1%), given the relevant anecdotal survey, and more importantly labour data inputs, with Manufacturing Output set to largely reverse an unexpectedly sharp May -0.7% m/m, with a 0.6% m/m rise in June. The NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast to remain close to its cyclical high at 69 (vs May 68), with Housing Starts seen at 1.32 Mln vs. May's 1.35 Mln, lower on the month, but very robust by any historical standard.
Over in the UK, the run of major monthly data will be significant (along with the very fluid world of UK politics) in terms of confirming or jarring expectations that the BoE's MPC will hike rates by a further 25 bps to 0.7% when it meets in August. In the de nouveau publication cycle, labour data Tuesday precedes the array of inflation data on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday. Among these Average Hourly Earnings are not anticipated to make a compelling case for a rate hike, with headline seen unchanged at 2.5% y/y, and ex-Bonus to dip to 2.7% from 2.8%. Headline CPI is however seen up a modest 0.2% m/m, which would edge the y/y rate up to 2.6% from 2.4%, though core CPI is forecast to be unchanged at a rather less "rate hike compelling" 2.1% y/y. In month to month terms the rise PPI Input should be modest (consensus 0.4%), but still implying a return to a double digit 10.1% y/y rise, but PPI Output Prices are still seen at a relatively subdued 3.2% y/y (from 2.9%) and core Output very well behaved at 2.1% y/y. Following on from the rather more compelling rebound in Retail Sales in May (1.3% m/m), June's Warm weather allied with a boost from the World Cup is projected to rise 0.3% m/m, while the June PSNB budget balance is seen little changed vs May at £3.7 Bln (May £3.4 Bln, though it remains too early in the fiscal year (above all given Brexit related uncertainties) to opine on trends.
- In central bank terms, Powell's testimony to the respective Senate and House Committees follows the already published prepared testimony that offered no surprises, underlining an overall positive outlook. Indonesia's BI is seen holding at 5.25% after June's larger than anticipated 50 bps hike, while policy rates are seen on hold in Angola (18.0%) and South Africa 6.50%). Govt bond supply sees multi-tranche sales in France and Spain, as well as 2 & 30-yr in Germany, 40-yr in the UK and 10-yr TIPS in the USA.
- For US and other corporate earnings highlights, please see the Week Ahead e-mail from Friday
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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cable in rez...was prev supp area
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ftse 7640 if it bounces
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DXY updated
gettin into our pivot area
gettin into our pivot area
Dentalfloss
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any reason for ftse plummet
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