Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
Dow

Could be a "one liner" today

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Click to expand...

gettin closer

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** Please note that there will be no updates Monday through Wednesday **
next week, as I will be out of the office

The Week Ahead Preview:

It will be a somewhat busier week for economic data and surveys, but it is still likely to be the case that politics and the various trade tensions continue to rule the roost in terms of market price formation, along with a goodly volume of central bank speakers, and the fact of quarter end flows. As noted earlier it will also be a blockbuster week for US Treasury supply with $116 Bln in fixed and floating coupon Treasuries, and ca. $125 bln of T-Bills.

- Statistically the start of the week is dominated by business and consumer surveys, with the Germany Ifo Business Climate (median 101.8 vs. prior 102.2) and US Consumer Confidence (median 127.5 vs. prior 128.0) likely to take pride of place. For the US the official data schedule has Durable Goods (headline seen dipping 1.0% m/m, but core measures rising 0.5% after 1.0% in April), Personal Income & PCE (likely to echo solid Retail Sales and Average Hourly Earnings), as well as the remaining home sales measures, and the final reading on Q1 GDP. If forecasts for preliminary June Eurozone CPI are correct (headline 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, core 1.0% y/y vs. 1.1%), then a surprise will be necessary for this to have any lasting impact, with German Unemployment and ever erratic Retail Sales along with French Consumer the other highlights of the Eurozone data run. The UK looks to the latest Consumer Credit and Mortgage Lending ahead of Friday's April Index of Services and Q1 Current Account (with final Q1 GDP and Business Investment). It being month end means that it will be a busy week for stats in Japan, with the focus on Tokyo CPI (headline seen at 0.4% y/y, and 'core core' CPI at 0.3% vs. May's 0.2%), Industrial Production is seen dropping 1.0% m/m, and Retail Sales mean reverting with a -0.9% m/m following April's 1.3% m/m jump. Elsewhere Canada has April monthly GDP, which along with the Q2 Bank of Canada business and lending surveys may well be pivotal to the July 11 rate decision.

- New Zealand's RBNZ is seen holding rates at 1.75%, and will likely stick to the surprise shift last month, when it suggested that the next move on rates could be up or down, underlining a very neutral short-term policy stance. Following the unexpectedly hawkish MPC meeting outturn, newly crowned BoE hawk Haldane will be speaking along with departing fellow MPC hawk McCafferty, with a further array of Fed and ECB speakers, with the BoE's Financial Stability report, the second part of the Fed's bank stress test results and the ECB bulletin, and the summary of opinions at the June BoJ meeting providing further major central bank highlights. In the EM space, Indonesia's BI is seen hiking rates a further 25 bps to 5.0%, while rates are seen on hold in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Egypt, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan and Trinidad & Tobago. Brazil's BCB publishes its quarterly Inflation Report.

- This weekend will see Turkey hold its elections, with opinion polls suggesting that the AKP's support will ebb somewhat and likely see Erdogan forced to go to second run-off vote, and there is also the meeting of some EU countries to discuss how to reform immigration rules, which comes ahead of the EU Summit (council of ministers) which has a long list of contentions topics to discuss, including migration, Eurozone reforms, EU Budgat reform and obviously Brexit negotiations. Oil markets will probably move swiftly on from the latest OPEC agreement, and revert to speculating about the supply/demand balance and the usual array of weekly indicators.

..........................................................................

Marc Ostwald
Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
 
cantagril said:
Had to go out and left an order in to buy at .8755 and sell at .8780. Just seen that it went down to 60 and then very grudgingly to 75(n)
Click to expand...

Back in to find that my order did eventually get triggered and have just closed at .8777 for +22...so I got there in the end.

That's me done.

Good w/e to all:)
 
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