Trading with point and figure

a wide rez area...could be alot of messing around

ftird.png

posted 7.27am
2775 the high
 
Busier day for data and events, focus on SNB, BOE & Banxico rate
decisions, data focus: UK PSNB, US Initial Clains, Philly Fed survey
and FHFA House Prices; plentiful govt bond supply

- BoE: no change expected, Saunders and McCaffetty set to dissent again,
focus on hints on August rate decision

- Charts: WTI vs Brent Oil futures
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Today is the peak event and data day for the week, with monetary policy meetings in the UK, Switzerland and Mexico, while the data run has NZ Q1 GDP and French Business Confidence to digest ahead of UK PSNB, US Initial Claims, Philly Fed survey and FHFA House Prices. The UK also has the annual Mansion House address by Chancellor Hammond and BoE governor Carney. Government bond supply is also plentiful with multi-maturity auctions in Spain and France, and a re-opening of the current US 30-yr TIPS. Ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting, there will be a lot of speculation about what sort of compromise can be worked out on easing some of the production curbs, and how any easing is rationalized, with Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Venezuela signalling that they are not happy with the Russia/Saudi Arabia suggestion of a 1.5 Mln production increase. As such something of the order of a 500K increase initially with a further 500K rise at the end of the year likely, and rationalized as compensating for blow quota output from the likes of Venezuela

- The Bank of England's MPC is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.50% when it meets this week, but following the strong Retail Sales report, (though very poor Industrial Production and Construction output, and sluggish wages), there are expectations that it will signal that the door is very much open for August rate hike, though with the usual Brexit negotiation contingencies. The vote is again expected to be 7-2 with Saunders and McCafferty voting for a a rate hike. As this is not an Inflation Report meeting, there will be no press conference, though Mr Carney will have the opportunity to elucidate on the BoE's statement, when he makes his annual Mansion House address this evening.

- Switzerland's SNB is also seen holding rates at today's meeting, and signal that any shift in its policy rate is still a very distant prospect, while again underlining that it sees the CHF as still being overvalued, and expressing some dismay at the recent bout of 'flight to quality' strength.

- Mexico's Banxico is once again charged with propping up the ailing MXN, which is likely to stall the relatively drop in CPI this year (tomorrow's mid-month CPI seen edging up to 4.57% y/y from 4.55%), and is seen resuming its rate hikes with a 25 bps hike to 7.75%.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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