Trading with point and figure

Ostwald, Marc
Attachments08:24 (9 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Trade tensions move back to centre stage as US China tariff announcement
awaited: modest schedule otherwise with focus on US NY Fed survey and
Industrial Production topping data schedule; BoJ to be digested ahead of
run of ECB and Fed speakers; Russia rate decision

- Russia rate decision: consensus looks for no change, some speculation
about surprise cut; Nabiullina caution leans against

- US Industrial Production: seen posting very small gain after two very
strong months, auto output may drag on Manufacturing Output

- BoJ: lowered estimate of current CPI trend rate underlines BoJ tilting
at windmills without Abe delivering on structural reforms

- RUB/USD and Brent vs WTI Crude future

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

After all the Fed and ECB 'excitement' over the past two days, today's end of week schedule is a little bit light on highlights once the as expected no change from the BoJ policy has been digested, though it is triple witching for equity futures and options, which once the usual 'pinning' exercise has been completed may give scope for investors to rethink their strategies in light of the Fed and ECB. Outside of that the statistical schedule is rather meagre with final Eurozone CPI for May, Polish core CPI and monthly Brazilian warming the plate for the day's key US data - NY Fed Manufacturing survey, Industrial Production and provisional Michigan Sentiment - which will de facto need to surprise to have more than a fleeting impact. Perhaps the more so, given the fact that it is also Eid-Ul-Fitr (end of Ramadan) and of course the distraction of the World Cup. Eminently politics has not gone away as factor with the US set to impose tariffs on some $50 Bln of Chinese goods, with a hefty skew towards technology related goods, which of itself starts to change the nature of this scrap from being primarily related to trade to one that is more about economic hegemony, and motivated by numerous breaches by China of intellectual property rights. Obviously there is a large element of the Trump regime trying to force China to the negotiating table, but the risk given the tensions with both China and the EU is that spirals into an outright trade war and blatant protectionism. As for the BoJ, the follow-up to dropping an explicit time line for CPI reaching the 2.0% target at the last meeting was a downward revision to expectations for current inflation to 0.5%-1.0% from a previous around 1.0%, which after 6 years of QQE really underlines that the BoJ will continue to be tilting at windmills, without the govt addressing the glaring need for quite radical structural reforms, which still looks to be a distant prospect. Last but not least, some speculation has emerged in recent days that Russia's central bank may opt for a surprise 25 bps rate cut, predicated on few signs that any significant inflation pressures have emerged due to the RUB' sanctions related fall, and indeed a very steady RUB profile. However Nabiullina's natural tendency to err on the side of caution suggests that a resumption of the previous rate cutting cycle will be deferred to Q3.

** U.S.A. - May Industrial Production **
- Industrial Production is forecast to post a relatively modest 0.2% m/m, with Manufacturing Output seen flat m/m, predicated on the 0.3% m/m dip in manufacturing hours, though following two very solid reports in March & April, and implying a 3-mth annualized pace of 6.4%, in other words still very strong by any recent historical standards. There are some downside risks given that the weakness of auto sales implies the recent high pace of auto output is due a correction, which would above all weigh on Manufacturing Output.


from Marc Ostwald
 
if it dumps....bounce to go no higher than 5550
better 5542-5550
then sellers in...if they see that
 
Cable hit 1.32 and I'm now rudderless.

What does your crystal noughts and crosses show Mr D.

Just simply based on Brexit noise I'm feeling more down side.


As for SPX do you think we might see 2748 by end of day?
 
ftse

2wr3edc.png
 
dentist007 said:
trade tariffs...
do euro index rise...cos they see a gap where US cannot export..cos of tariffs..??
Click to expand...


That's a tough one to work out as impacts all up in the air wrt who gains who loses out. Especially if tit-for-tat responses are pencilled in.

I'd say movements in index more related to Fed rate hikes v dovish ECB blurb, thus strengthening of dollar againts Euro and Pound.

As quite a few global companies in basket, this reflects positively on FTSE and other indexes.


You can say EU is more sheltered and likely to off-set trade with US with trade towards East. Demand will still be fulfilled just with parts and supplies from elsewhere with marginal movements in costs imo.

I'd focus more on exchange rates than tariffs which are more indicative of index movement.
 
Atilla said:
That's a tough one to work out as impacts all up in the air wrt who gains who loses out. Especially if tit-for-tat responses are pencilled in.

I'd say movements in index more related to Fed rate hikes v dovish ECB blurb, thus strengthening of dollar againts Euro and Pound.

As quite a few global companies in basket, this reflects positively on FTSE and other indexes.


You can say EU is more sheltered and likely to off-set trade with US with trade towards East. Demand will still be fulfilled just with parts and supplies from elsewhere with marginal movements in costs imo.

I'd focus more on exchange rates than tariffs which are more indicative of index movement.
Click to expand...


makes sense
excellent ..as always
 
Atilla said:
Cable hit 1.32 and I'm now rudderless.

What does your crystal noughts and crosses show Mr D.

Just simply based on Brexit noise I'm feeling more down side.


As for SPX do you think we might see 2748 by end of day?
Click to expand...

lookin now
 
1.3312 is 50% area
we wont know uneless we get into that area
first rez area 1.3270-1.3300...there now in 1.3270 area
 
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