Dentalfloss
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eurusd 1.1850 is a mega support zone
testing it now
testing it now
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
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Dentalfloss
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in theory.....we should see some dollar selling
Dentalfloss
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eurusd our 1.1850 workin well
usdjpy comin off a tad
cable got bought
excellent stuff
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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SPX into the open
Dentalfloss
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almost forgot..........Mornin Folks
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Long EG .8753 Targets .8770 and .8805
Dentalfloss
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from Marc Ostwald
- Trump US JCPOA exit decision to set mood music; digesting dismal UK BRC
Retail Sales, encouraging Japan Wages, neutral Norway CPI, weak French
Production and strong Spanish Production; awaiting Sweden CPI and
US PPI; UK, Germany, Portugal and US to sell debt; RBNZ rate decision
- Sweden CPI: seen dipping further away from target, but Riksbank
spin on inflation data more important than actual outturn
- US PPI: expected to moderate in m/m terms after March surprise, though
anecdotal evidence overwhelmingly suggests upside risks
- US/Iran: US JCPOA exit heightens risk of outright Israel/Iran conflict,
sadly though hopefully contained within Syria
- RBNZ rate decision: steep NZD fall may prompt less dovish tone, upward
CPI forecast revision
- Charts: Iran Oil Production, US JOLTs Jobs Openings and ISM Prices Paid,
Japan Regular Labor Cash Earnings & NZD/USD
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule looks to be rather short on market movers from a broad perspective outside of US PPI, otherwise the impact will be rather more specific, ranging from the overnight much better than expected Japan Wages and the much worse than expected 23 yr low for UK BRC Retail Sales, with Norwegian and Swedish CPI, French and Spanish Industrial Production and Mexican CPI providing the other points of interest. But politics will surely the primary mood music for markets will dictated by Trump's exit from the Iran nuclear deal, with other items relegated to the "also ran" category: the Japan / China / South Korea Summit and the Malaysian general election, which may offer one or other headline of interest, while tonight brings the RBNZ rate decision. Govt bond supply comes via way of a UK 10-yr, German 30-yr, Portugal 5 & 10-yr and US 10-yr, while the corporate earnings features amongst others: SoftBank, Toyota; Ahold Delhaize, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Deutsche Telekom, Enel, ING, Siemens, UniCredit; ADT, Altice USA, CenturyLink, Coty, IAC/InterActiveCorp, MBIA, Mylan, 21st Century Fox and Ambev. In respect of the US exit from the JCPOA the question is whether the remaining signatories will stick with the JCPOA, or whether the US financial sanctions force it to be dismantled. The risk on the latter can only be designated as high, as is the risk of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel, which very sadly for the people of Syria will hopefully remain contained within Syria. Even more sad is the observation that in his summing up for exiting Trump essentially sounded like he is a puppet spokesperson for Netanyahu and the MBS led Saudi regime. In terms of the impact on the oil market (likely also buoyed overnight by the much stronger than expected API crude, gasoline and distillate drawdowns), key pointers going forward to watch for, as identified by a number of oil industry experts including @Anasalhajji, will be to watch: a) Iraq oil exports as reported by secondary sources! (Yes, Iraqi); b) Iranian floating storage and c) Iranian electricity exports - see chart attached.
** Sweden - April CPI **
- An honest assessment of Swedish CPI data says that how the Riskbank reconstructs the data is rather more important than the data itself, in so far as the Riksbank's view is very asymmetric. That said, if the consensus is correct on today's CPI - looking for a 0.4% m/m rise on headline CPI and core CPIF, that would translate to dips in y/y terms to 1.7% from 1.9% and to 1.9% from 2.0% respectively - then it will only reinforce the majority view that SEK weakness is not actually having much upward impact on inflation, even if a growing number are worrying out loud that at some stage that balance may tip quite sharply in the opposite direction. To a certain degree they (along with the ECB) are spooked by their (with hindsight) premature tightening moves in the early part of the decade, which in the Riskbank's case brought a good deal of not only public, but also parliamentary censure.
** U.S.A. - April PPI **
- March's upside surprise on PPI was predicated both on relatively broad upward pressures, led by Food (2.2% m/m), Machinery/Equipment (2.9% m/m) and Transport/Warehousing (0.6%) and Services (0.3%), though offset at a headline level by Energy (-2.2%), though the breath of the pressure was best demonstrated by the ex-Food, Energy & Trade measure rising 0.4% m/m. Per se, this appeared to suggest increasing pass through of rising input costs (including wages) as has been suggested by a multitude of survey data, though as ever the observation that 'one swallow does not a summer make' should be borne in mind. The consensus for April PPI looks for a 'military medium' 0.2% m/m rise on headline and core measures, which would see y/y rates dip to 2.8% (headline) and an even more modest 2.4% y/y ex-Food & Energy. It is actually quite difficult to ascertain why the consensus is looking for the slight moderation in m/m terms, the ISM Prices Paid hit a cyclical peak, with energy prices rising broadly and the March drop in metals prices reversed (or in Aluminium's case sky rocketing), which would leave the volatile and heavily weighted Trade Services component needing to combine with some form of reversal of the machinery/equipment spike, which is a possibility, though perhaps rather less plausible given the array of anecdotal inputs. In passing, it is does seem worth mentioning that yesterday's JOLTs Job Openings were not only a new record at 6.55 Mln, but smashed the previous record by 5%!).
** New Zealand - RBNZ rate decision **
- The RBNZ is not expected to move on rates, and is expected to continue to stick to a very neutral rate outlook, with the consensus looking for a rate hike no earlier than Q2 2019. For all that last week's NZ Wage growth remained very soft (0.3% q/q), the drop in the Unemployment Rate to a very low 4.4%, allied with the NZD falling more (and very rapidly) than they had been assuming (see chart) may just prompt the RBNZ to take a slighly less dovish turn in its accompanying policy statement.
- Trump US JCPOA exit decision to set mood music; digesting dismal UK BRC
Retail Sales, encouraging Japan Wages, neutral Norway CPI, weak French
Production and strong Spanish Production; awaiting Sweden CPI and
US PPI; UK, Germany, Portugal and US to sell debt; RBNZ rate decision
- Sweden CPI: seen dipping further away from target, but Riksbank
spin on inflation data more important than actual outturn
- US PPI: expected to moderate in m/m terms after March surprise, though
anecdotal evidence overwhelmingly suggests upside risks
- US/Iran: US JCPOA exit heightens risk of outright Israel/Iran conflict,
sadly though hopefully contained within Syria
- RBNZ rate decision: steep NZD fall may prompt less dovish tone, upward
CPI forecast revision
- Charts: Iran Oil Production, US JOLTs Jobs Openings and ISM Prices Paid,
Japan Regular Labor Cash Earnings & NZD/USD
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule looks to be rather short on market movers from a broad perspective outside of US PPI, otherwise the impact will be rather more specific, ranging from the overnight much better than expected Japan Wages and the much worse than expected 23 yr low for UK BRC Retail Sales, with Norwegian and Swedish CPI, French and Spanish Industrial Production and Mexican CPI providing the other points of interest. But politics will surely the primary mood music for markets will dictated by Trump's exit from the Iran nuclear deal, with other items relegated to the "also ran" category: the Japan / China / South Korea Summit and the Malaysian general election, which may offer one or other headline of interest, while tonight brings the RBNZ rate decision. Govt bond supply comes via way of a UK 10-yr, German 30-yr, Portugal 5 & 10-yr and US 10-yr, while the corporate earnings features amongst others: SoftBank, Toyota; Ahold Delhaize, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Deutsche Telekom, Enel, ING, Siemens, UniCredit; ADT, Altice USA, CenturyLink, Coty, IAC/InterActiveCorp, MBIA, Mylan, 21st Century Fox and Ambev. In respect of the US exit from the JCPOA the question is whether the remaining signatories will stick with the JCPOA, or whether the US financial sanctions force it to be dismantled. The risk on the latter can only be designated as high, as is the risk of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel, which very sadly for the people of Syria will hopefully remain contained within Syria. Even more sad is the observation that in his summing up for exiting Trump essentially sounded like he is a puppet spokesperson for Netanyahu and the MBS led Saudi regime. In terms of the impact on the oil market (likely also buoyed overnight by the much stronger than expected API crude, gasoline and distillate drawdowns), key pointers going forward to watch for, as identified by a number of oil industry experts including @Anasalhajji, will be to watch: a) Iraq oil exports as reported by secondary sources! (Yes, Iraqi); b) Iranian floating storage and c) Iranian electricity exports - see chart attached.
** Sweden - April CPI **
- An honest assessment of Swedish CPI data says that how the Riskbank reconstructs the data is rather more important than the data itself, in so far as the Riksbank's view is very asymmetric. That said, if the consensus is correct on today's CPI - looking for a 0.4% m/m rise on headline CPI and core CPIF, that would translate to dips in y/y terms to 1.7% from 1.9% and to 1.9% from 2.0% respectively - then it will only reinforce the majority view that SEK weakness is not actually having much upward impact on inflation, even if a growing number are worrying out loud that at some stage that balance may tip quite sharply in the opposite direction. To a certain degree they (along with the ECB) are spooked by their (with hindsight) premature tightening moves in the early part of the decade, which in the Riskbank's case brought a good deal of not only public, but also parliamentary censure.
** U.S.A. - April PPI **
- March's upside surprise on PPI was predicated both on relatively broad upward pressures, led by Food (2.2% m/m), Machinery/Equipment (2.9% m/m) and Transport/Warehousing (0.6%) and Services (0.3%), though offset at a headline level by Energy (-2.2%), though the breath of the pressure was best demonstrated by the ex-Food, Energy & Trade measure rising 0.4% m/m. Per se, this appeared to suggest increasing pass through of rising input costs (including wages) as has been suggested by a multitude of survey data, though as ever the observation that 'one swallow does not a summer make' should be borne in mind. The consensus for April PPI looks for a 'military medium' 0.2% m/m rise on headline and core measures, which would see y/y rates dip to 2.8% (headline) and an even more modest 2.4% y/y ex-Food & Energy. It is actually quite difficult to ascertain why the consensus is looking for the slight moderation in m/m terms, the ISM Prices Paid hit a cyclical peak, with energy prices rising broadly and the March drop in metals prices reversed (or in Aluminium's case sky rocketing), which would leave the volatile and heavily weighted Trade Services component needing to combine with some form of reversal of the machinery/equipment spike, which is a possibility, though perhaps rather less plausible given the array of anecdotal inputs. In passing, it is does seem worth mentioning that yesterday's JOLTs Job Openings were not only a new record at 6.55 Mln, but smashed the previous record by 5%!).
** New Zealand - RBNZ rate decision **
- The RBNZ is not expected to move on rates, and is expected to continue to stick to a very neutral rate outlook, with the consensus looking for a rate hike no earlier than Q2 2019. For all that last week's NZ Wage growth remained very soft (0.3% q/q), the drop in the Unemployment Rate to a very low 4.4%, allied with the NZD falling more (and very rapidly) than they had been assuming (see chart) may just prompt the RBNZ to take a slighly less dovish turn in its accompanying policy statement.
Dentalfloss
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eurusd and cable gettin bought
as we said yesterday...dollar overboiught
usdjpy laggin a tad
as we said yesterday...dollar overboiught
usdjpy laggin a tad
Dentalfloss
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usdjpy lined up 109.75..ish
Dentalfloss
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index bullish as we marked premarket
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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dow 24500 lined up
Dentalfloss
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ditto ftse and dax
Dentalfloss
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cable and eurusd comin off a tad
will the pullback get bought..??
will the pullback get bought..??
Dentalfloss
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Sir Canta
thought this might interest you
thought this might interest you
Dentalfloss
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eurusd in rez
1.1850 area
1.1850 area
Dentalfloss
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ditto cable 1.3550
usdjpy lined up aswell
will dollar get sold..??
then oil up
bad for ftse
mixed on US stocks....small caps lose out...large caps benefit
as always....who knows
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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dax lined up at 12950
