Dentalfloss
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eurusd and cable in big..ish supp areas now
lets see what happens
lets see what happens
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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usdjpy
a tad overbought
a tad overbought
Dentalfloss
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ftse
poss a tad overbought
poss a tad overbought
Dentalfloss
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our 6650 pivot got dumped....finally
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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supp held...and pump ..for a feweurusd
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Morning Sir Canta
Dentalfloss
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my take on it
C
cantagril
And an excellent morrow to you!
I thought I might take this opportunity to point out that for some reason HM left me off the last Honours list so the knighthood is premature but I do sincerely thank you for the recognition of my services
Anyway, work and money are drying up so I'm going to see if EG will let me have a few squid.
5 min chart looks quite perky but there's another BoE geezer about to spout at 8am so it's breakfast and a fair bit of hand-sitting for me.
BTW - no news from ML?
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C
cantagril
As usual, your chart's a lot clearer
Still going to wait.....
Still going to wait.....
Dentalfloss
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SPX
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ML....dunno
Dentalfloss
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bulls still there
that chart has alot of noise removed
that chart has alot of noise removed
Dentalfloss
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Cable a tad oversold
No real support as yet
No real support as yet
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting subdued Australia Q1 CPI and modest slip in French Business
Confidence, awaiting German Ifo, UK CBI Industrial Trends and US Consumer
Confidence; another busy day for corporate earnings; US T-Bill & T-Note
supply totals $103 Bln as 10-yr yield toys with 3.0%: Hungary seen holding
rates
- Germany Ifo: modest dip expected as Services added to composite Business
Climate, still very robust by any historical standard - Q1 dip transient?
Bundesbank thinks so
- UK CBI Industrial Trends: Orders expected to stabilize after Feb/March
slide, focus on recently very choppy quarterly Business Optimism Index
- US Consumer Confidence: expected to remain very high, but down on March
as higher gasoline prices and negative economy chatter weigh
- Charts: GS and Bloomberg Financial Conditions indices, US 5 & 10-yr
TIPS breakeven inflation rates; USD/INR vs INR 5-yr OIS, USD/IDR, USD/THB,
USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/BRL, USD/MXN, USD Libor/OIS spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's statistical run is dominated by surveys, which are accompanied by the UK PSNB budget data for the final month of the 2017/18 fiscal year and both of the major US House Price metrics, and Mexico's mid-month CPI. The survey run includes French Business Confidence, German Ifo, UK CBI Industrial Trends and US Consumer Confidence. The events schedule is unlikely to offer much inspiration comprising various speeches and meetings on the Brexit process, including ECB's Villeroy, who will also be talking about the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme (aka QE). Meanwhile Hungary's MNB is expected to keep both of its key policy rates unchanged, even though deputy governor Nagy's comments last week on household lending being too sluggish does beg the question how, and by what means the MNB might engineering an increase. The US continues its hefty debt issuance via $45 Bln of 1-month and $26 Bln of 1-yr Bills, to accompany the first leg of its couponed issuance with $32 Bln of 2-yr T-notes, with the UK selling £750 Mln of 40-yr Index-Linked Gilts, and Italy holds the first of two auctions this week via way of EUR 3.75 Bln total 2020 CTZ (zeros) along with 1.3% 2028 & 1.25% 2032 BTPeis. It will also be another busy day for corporate earnings has Akzo Nobel, Banco Santander, Chubb, Iberdrola, Puma, SAP and Volvo in Europe, while US looks to 3M, Amgen, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Freeport-McMoRan, Harley-Davidson, Lockheed Martin, United Technologies & Verizon. Last but not least, as previously noted, the risk that a USD short squeeze would precipitate some pain for EM carry trades (particularly if accompanied by a setback for the JPY) looks to be crystallizing - see charts. That said, further context is required, namely the US Financial Conditions indices that we have referred to frequently in recent months, as these are key to US rate hikes. Yesterday saw a a very sharp spike in the GS measure, the Bloomberg measure tightened much less emphatically. A sharp and sustained tightening would switch the debate on US rates to 2/3 from 3/4 hikes, though the final factor is also how oil and commodity prices respond to the USD rally, if they sustain recent gains, the Fed faces a dilemma, while the ECB and BoJ may feel rather more comfortable that their CPI targets will be attained.
** Europe - April Ifo Business Climate, CBI Industrial Trends **
- Following on from largely unchanged German PMIs, today's new format Ifo Business Climate, which will include the previously separate Services sub-index for the first time, is expected to dip to 102.8 from March's rebased 103.2, with Current Conditions and Expectations expected to dip in equal measure. Anecdotal evidence and yesterday's Bundesbank monthly report suggests that a combination of the strikes in the metal and electro industry sectors and a flu mini-epidemic dampened actual activity in Q1, while business optimism was hit by trade sanctions / trade 'war' fears; the question is whether there will be some form of rebound in Q2, per se suggesting that the Q1 dip was transient, which the Bundesbank report appeared to be discounting given order flows and labour demand remain strong, and the upward revision to the VDMA's (German Engineering Federation) 2018 output forecast to 5.0% y/y from 3.0% also implies. As for the UK CBI April Industrial Trends survey, the Orders measure is seen unchanged at +4 (six month low), which compares with +14 in January, with a drop in Export Orders in February, and domestic Orders in March accounting for the setback. But it may well be the quarterly Trends survey that attracts more attention, above all Business Optimism that has been choppy in recent quarters, dropping from +5 in July to October's -11, before bouncing sharply to +13 in January, which can probably be attributed to businesses volatile perceptions about Brexit negotiations.
** U.S.A. - April Consumer Confidence **
- Following on from the robust Markit PMIs yesterday (Mfg New Orders best since Sept 2014, Services New Business best since March 2015), which to an extent gets both measures better aligned with the persistently higher ISM readings, today brings Consumer Confidence. The consensus looks for a further dip to 126.0 from March's 127.7 and February's 18-year high of 130.0. Higher gasoline prices, negative chatter on the economic outlook related to trade wars, and perhaps slightly higher mortgage rates and choppier equity are seen offsetting solid labour demand and the dip in income taxes, but the underlying profile clearly remains buoyant. As ever the Labour Differential (Jobs Plentiful minus Hard to Get), which stood at a cyclical high of +25 last month, will also garner plenty of attention.
from Marc Ostwald
Confidence, awaiting German Ifo, UK CBI Industrial Trends and US Consumer
Confidence; another busy day for corporate earnings; US T-Bill & T-Note
supply totals $103 Bln as 10-yr yield toys with 3.0%: Hungary seen holding
rates
- Germany Ifo: modest dip expected as Services added to composite Business
Climate, still very robust by any historical standard - Q1 dip transient?
Bundesbank thinks so
- UK CBI Industrial Trends: Orders expected to stabilize after Feb/March
slide, focus on recently very choppy quarterly Business Optimism Index
- US Consumer Confidence: expected to remain very high, but down on March
as higher gasoline prices and negative economy chatter weigh
- Charts: GS and Bloomberg Financial Conditions indices, US 5 & 10-yr
TIPS breakeven inflation rates; USD/INR vs INR 5-yr OIS, USD/IDR, USD/THB,
USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/BRL, USD/MXN, USD Libor/OIS spread
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's statistical run is dominated by surveys, which are accompanied by the UK PSNB budget data for the final month of the 2017/18 fiscal year and both of the major US House Price metrics, and Mexico's mid-month CPI. The survey run includes French Business Confidence, German Ifo, UK CBI Industrial Trends and US Consumer Confidence. The events schedule is unlikely to offer much inspiration comprising various speeches and meetings on the Brexit process, including ECB's Villeroy, who will also be talking about the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme (aka QE). Meanwhile Hungary's MNB is expected to keep both of its key policy rates unchanged, even though deputy governor Nagy's comments last week on household lending being too sluggish does beg the question how, and by what means the MNB might engineering an increase. The US continues its hefty debt issuance via $45 Bln of 1-month and $26 Bln of 1-yr Bills, to accompany the first leg of its couponed issuance with $32 Bln of 2-yr T-notes, with the UK selling £750 Mln of 40-yr Index-Linked Gilts, and Italy holds the first of two auctions this week via way of EUR 3.75 Bln total 2020 CTZ (zeros) along with 1.3% 2028 & 1.25% 2032 BTPeis. It will also be another busy day for corporate earnings has Akzo Nobel, Banco Santander, Chubb, Iberdrola, Puma, SAP and Volvo in Europe, while US looks to 3M, Amgen, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, Freeport-McMoRan, Harley-Davidson, Lockheed Martin, United Technologies & Verizon. Last but not least, as previously noted, the risk that a USD short squeeze would precipitate some pain for EM carry trades (particularly if accompanied by a setback for the JPY) looks to be crystallizing - see charts. That said, further context is required, namely the US Financial Conditions indices that we have referred to frequently in recent months, as these are key to US rate hikes. Yesterday saw a a very sharp spike in the GS measure, the Bloomberg measure tightened much less emphatically. A sharp and sustained tightening would switch the debate on US rates to 2/3 from 3/4 hikes, though the final factor is also how oil and commodity prices respond to the USD rally, if they sustain recent gains, the Fed faces a dilemma, while the ECB and BoJ may feel rather more comfortable that their CPI targets will be attained.
** Europe - April Ifo Business Climate, CBI Industrial Trends **
- Following on from largely unchanged German PMIs, today's new format Ifo Business Climate, which will include the previously separate Services sub-index for the first time, is expected to dip to 102.8 from March's rebased 103.2, with Current Conditions and Expectations expected to dip in equal measure. Anecdotal evidence and yesterday's Bundesbank monthly report suggests that a combination of the strikes in the metal and electro industry sectors and a flu mini-epidemic dampened actual activity in Q1, while business optimism was hit by trade sanctions / trade 'war' fears; the question is whether there will be some form of rebound in Q2, per se suggesting that the Q1 dip was transient, which the Bundesbank report appeared to be discounting given order flows and labour demand remain strong, and the upward revision to the VDMA's (German Engineering Federation) 2018 output forecast to 5.0% y/y from 3.0% also implies. As for the UK CBI April Industrial Trends survey, the Orders measure is seen unchanged at +4 (six month low), which compares with +14 in January, with a drop in Export Orders in February, and domestic Orders in March accounting for the setback. But it may well be the quarterly Trends survey that attracts more attention, above all Business Optimism that has been choppy in recent quarters, dropping from +5 in July to October's -11, before bouncing sharply to +13 in January, which can probably be attributed to businesses volatile perceptions about Brexit negotiations.
** U.S.A. - April Consumer Confidence **
- Following on from the robust Markit PMIs yesterday (Mfg New Orders best since Sept 2014, Services New Business best since March 2015), which to an extent gets both measures better aligned with the persistently higher ISM readings, today brings Consumer Confidence. The consensus looks for a further dip to 126.0 from March's 127.7 and February's 18-year high of 130.0. Higher gasoline prices, negative chatter on the economic outlook related to trade wars, and perhaps slightly higher mortgage rates and choppier equity are seen offsetting solid labour demand and the dip in income taxes, but the underlying profile clearly remains buoyant. As ever the Labour Differential (Jobs Plentiful minus Hard to Get), which stood at a cyclical high of +25 last month, will also garner plenty of attention.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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dax 12630 lining up
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spx testing our 2681 rez area
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eurusd in support
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usdjpy in rez
