Trading with point and figure

last 24 hours

nznd44.png
 
Canta...
yu are looking for a change in trend at a marked supp area..??
dont rush it
mark first rez for a bounce
#see where it settles..it could be a dead cat bounce....yu dont know if its the start of a new uptrend
 
- Digesting noisy China Trade data, Singapore Q1 GDP and MAS policy
tightening, awaiting US JOLTS Job Openings and Michigan, though US
bank earnings reports, Fed speak and overarching risks from Syria
and trade tensions likely to be key influences; IEA Oil market report

- China Trade: surprise deficit far less surprising given inevitability
of payback in March for February export surge; underlying growth
picture still solid, likely to be affirmed by next week's Q1 GDP

- US Q1 bank earnings: expected strength already well discounted, guidance
on tax reform and Fed stress test impact on projected capital needs in
focus

- Week ahead: busy week for major US, China and UK data

- Chart: China Trade Balance, Exports and Imports

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

As the focus of the Russia sanctions becomes rather more specific in market terms, i.e. specific to Deripaska and Vekselberg related entities (or no longer associated, as per the example of Sulzer), while trade and geo-political tensions continue to cloud horizons, the end of week schedule is relatively modest above all in data terms. Statistically the key items are the overnight China Trade Balance and modestly better than expected Singapore Q1 advance GDP , with US JOLTS Job Openings and prov. Michigan sentiment the only other items of note. In event terms the heavily anticipated MAS policy tightening in Singapore precedes the second of this week's monthly Oil Market Reports via the IEA, along with Fed speak from Rosengren (resolute hawk) and Bullard (maverick dove), with Summit Of The Americas relegated to the 'also ran' category given Trump's absence (though V-P Pence will be in attendance). Last but certainly not least, three of the four major US banks (JPM, CIti & Wells Fargo) kick off the US earnings season in earnest; they are all expected to report considerably higher profits, due to better trading conditions aided by the pick-up in market volatility, higher rates and a boost to underwriting fees. However there is a big question over what the combined of impact of the tax reforms (particularly how past losses are measured and applied to tax liabilities) and changes to the Fed's stress tests will have on dividends and buybacks. The fear is that the new tax laws will result in lower projections for banks' capital levels in the Fed's stress tests (which are rather nebulous), as part of the (Fed's) annual "Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR)", and for which banks have already submitted their plans, and therefore should able to offer some 'guidance'. The latter will ultimately be the litmus test for these results, and by extension could provide surprises which dictate markets' price reaction.

As for the China Trade data, just as the February data benefitted from Lunar New Year effects, so the March data took revenge with an unexpected and rare deficit, and perhaps the main take home is that the monthly activity data due next week, which accompanies Q1 GDP (forecast at 1.5% q/q and unchanged 6.8% y/y), may contain one or other surprise. That said, newly installed PBOC governor Yi Gang has already offered the opinion that Q1 data have been somewhat better than had been anticipated, and as such that suggests the potential for the one or the other upside surprise. In the detail on the commodity side, the drop in Soy imports is very typical of the immediate post Lunar New Year period as demand eases, with weather disruptions in the USA and slow loading of exports from Brazil exacerbating the move. On Copper Imports, the data fit with a drop in lower grade imports (above all scrap) which have been banned by the authorities, and a pick-up in concentrates leading to an overall quality improvement. Iron Ore Imports rebounded as expected as Steel mills resumed production after pollution related halts (and despite some hiccoughs with shipments from Brazil) in the winter period, and Oil Product exports continue to surge, which is a consideration for energy markets, given the experience of Q2 2016 where the surge in Chinese product exports spoked the then nascent crude rally.


from Marc Ostwald
 
Last edited:
dentist007 said:
Canta...
yu are looking for a change in trend at a marked supp area..??

.....

mark first rez for a bounce
#see where it settles..it could be a dead cat bounce....yu dont know if its the start of a new uptrend
Click to expand...


Yep. Am indeed looking for a serious move upward but started looking far too early.

After yesterday's crispy genitalia incident, I'm waiting and watching for better signals. Unfortunately, I'm doing other stuff again today so it'll have to wait until next week.

BTW: haven't got BEB atm but I had a look at the p&f chart for USDCAD earlier today - looks that might be preparing for take-off somewhere in the 1.25 to 1.2540 area. Wotcha fink?
 
price testing that pivot....and in a tight range
JPM profits were big

as always.....Who THE F*** KNOWS
 
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