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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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cantagril
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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Morning Sir Canta
Dentalfloss
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12320...and dumpDax
missed it.....asleep
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EG
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close plot
Dentalfloss
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mornin Inzi
Dentalfloss
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dow
trends become clearer when you plot the close
definite downtrends there....4 reaction points to draw new downtrend lines
bulls have a heck of alot of work to do
we are in an area of horizontal support....lets see what the bulls can do
we might get 24360area on a poss fake
Dentalfloss
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dax and ftse should go with it
C
cantagril
Hi Dentist / Inzi,
I got distracted with some work over the last couple of weeks but that's over for the moment so I'm back to play
I'm gradually widening my interest and have started to look at UC, UJ, €CHF and Stoxx - I find Dax is generally too exciting for my taste....
I've looked in occasionally to see Dentist giving the Dax and Dow a good seeing-to but Inzi, what are you interested in these days?...and what news of ML?
I got distracted with some work over the last couple of weeks but that's over for the moment so I'm back to play
I'm gradually widening my interest and have started to look at UC, UJ, €CHF and Stoxx - I find Dax is generally too exciting for my taste....
I've looked in occasionally to see Dentist giving the Dax and Dow a good seeing-to but Inzi, what are you interested in these days?...and what news of ML?
Dentalfloss
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- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Digesting Japan services survey, German Trade; BoC Q1 surveys ahead;
focus on Trade tensions, sanctions, along with ECB annual report, IMF
World Economic Outlook update and US CBO annual budget and economic
outlook
- Directional of revisions key for IMF forecasts update, against
emergent concerns about global growth losing momentum
- Russia sanctions perhaps more sensitive than China tensions, and may
much have more profound impact than 2014 measures
- US CBO forecast update: major upward revision to deficit, but much
contingent on growth forecast revisions
- Week Ahead: US & China inflation data, China Trade, Japan Orders,
and UK Production, Trade, BRC Retail Sales and RICS in focus
- Week Ahead: FOMC minutes and Fed speak (Evans shift notable), plenty
of ECB speakers; raft of CEE and EM rate decisions seen unchanged
- Attachments: US Corp Earnings guidance, Corp Earnings & Revenues,
Forward EPS charts & Factset Earnings Scorecard
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the data schedule has points of interest via way of the already published Japan's Current Account and Economy Watchers (services) survey along with German Trade (with the fall in exports & imports seemingly adding to the impression that recent weak data has in part been a function of weather and China LNY effects), ahead of this afternoon's Bank of Canada quarterly surveys of Senior Officers and on the Business Outlook, the events schedule might have rather more in the way of distractions from the intensifying China/US Trade skirmishes. These comprise China's equivalent to the Davos WEF, the Boao Forum on Asia which kicked off on Sunday, with President Xi offering the key note speech tomorrow, the ECB'a annual report and a smattering of ECB speak, while the IMF will update its World Economic Outlook (see: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018 for January 2018's projections). But perhaps most interesting will the US Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) annual US Budget and Economic Outlook, notable for the fact that CBO's forecasting track record has consistently been more reliable than other official institutions, and indeed private sector estimates. The main point of focus will be its estimates of the US budget deficit incoming year.
Thanks to the recent decision to ramp up spending over the next two years and the tax reforms, these will be way above the projections made last June. But for comparison purposes, these were the June 2017 estimates for 2018-2020:
a) US$, Bln 2018 2019 2020
Total Revenues 3,531 3,687 3,853
Total Outlays 4,094 4,375 4,628
Budget deficit -563 -689 -775
GDP 19,924 20,671 21,380
b) As precentages (of GDP where appliclable)
2018 2019 2020
Total Revenues 17.7 17.8 18.0
Total Outlays 20.5 21.2 21.6
Budget deficit -2.8 -3.3 -3.6
Real GDP 2.2 1.7 1.4
GDP Deflator 2.0 1.9 2.0
PCE / Core PCE * 1.9 2.0 2.0
* projections were the same for both series
# CBO website: https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#4
Elsewhere, on the 'trade wars/sanctions' front, there may ab a rther more profound impact in the commodity trading arena from the sanctions imposed by the US on Friday against Oleg Deripaska (Norilsk Nickel, Rusal) and other Russian oligarchs, as these go well beyond those imposed in 2014, in so far as they effectively target anyone facilitating any USD dollar transactions with the oligarchs and their companies. Eminently other currencies could be used, though in the current regulatory climate (above all following the fines imposed on European banks in recent years for similar 'circumvention'), many banks may well be very wary, and automakers and makers of beverage cans along with those doing business with Gazprom, whose CEO Miller, though not the company, has been sanctioned will be in intense consultations with thier legal advisers.
* RECAP: The Week Ahead Preview : 09 to 13 April 2018 *
- While the coming week's schedule is quite busy in data terms, via way of the gamut of US and Chinese inflation indicators; China, German, UK and Chinese Trade; Japanese Machinery Orders and a raft of Industrial Production readings in Europe and the UK, accompanied by a busy run of ECB and Fed speakers, the question is whether these will get any market traction / reaction, given the focus on 'trade war' fears. The week also sees the start of the Q1 earnings season, monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC along with a number of major energy conferences, with the US topping the govt bond auction schedule.
- Somewhat unusually, US inflation data are published this week, while US activity indicators are scheduled for the week after. As previously noted, the March through June period will see considerable upward pressure on US and European inflation metrics due to adverse base effects. Thus US CPI may be forecast to post a flat m/m reading at the headline level, but this would still see the y/y tick up to 2.3% from 2.2%, with core CPI seen up by the "usual" 0.2% m/m, which would bump the y/y rate to 2.1% from 1.8%. PPI and Export / Import Prices are also due, as are the NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. China is projected to see CPI and PPI edge back down to 2.6% and 3.3% y/y (vs 2.9% and 3.7%), as Lunar New Year effects unwind, with its topical and sensitive Trade data are expected to see Exports and Imports revert to a more 'normal' trend after February's LNY distortions, with the consensus looking for Exports at 11.9% y/y (vs. Feb's 44.5%) and Imports at 12.4% y/y (vs. Feb's 6.3%). German Trade data are seen posting marginal gains for both Exports and Imports, after modest dips in January. The ever volatile Japanese Private Machinery Orders are projected to see a setback of 2.5% m/m, following January's 8.2% m/m surge, with Lunar New Year effects and mean reversion risks imparting some downside risks. A relatively busy week for the UK has Industrial Production (median +0.4% m/m), Trade (£-11.9 Bln) and Construction Output (0.7% m/m after sliding -3.4% in January), along with the NIESR GDP estimate (0.3%), BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices. The Bank of Canada's quarterly Business Outlook and Loan Officers' surveys, Indian CPI and Industrial Production and Australian Housing Finance are likely to be the other items of note.
- There will be a deluge of ECB and Eurozone national central bank speakers, the March FOMC minutes and a smattering of Fed and BoJ speakers, though it seems unlikely that any will offer any fresh insights / signals on policy outlooks. That said, the comments from one of the FOMC's staunchest doves, Chicago Fed's Evans, in support of further gradual rate hikes, is as notable a shift as that from Brainard earlier in the year. On the other hand, the first major speech by newly appointed China PBOC chief Yi Gang will attract plenty of attention, both in terms of the monetary policy outlook, and indeed potential measures to address the myriad of financial sector macro-prudential challenges. In the CEE and EM space, no change policy decisions are expected in Croatia, Mexico, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Ukraine, and rates are likely to remain on hold in Mozambique, Namibia, Peru and Serbia. While the IMF's forecasting record is far from blemish free, its latest global economic forecast update will inevitably attract attention, above all in terms of the overall direction of any forecast revisions, given emergent market concerns that global growth may be losing some traction.
- The US Q4 earnings season kicks off with the usual smattering of major financials - Blackrock, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Wells Fargo. Unusually, overall S&P 500 earnings expectations have been revised up going into the reporting season, and look for a sharp increase, despite the soggy tone in US equity indices. As my colleague Andy Ash has observed: "If we look at the times when the S&P is down 10% coming into an earnings season that is predicting 15%+ earnings growth, the outcome from those times has been only 50% positive. The S&P interestingly does a lot better when it is down and expecting bad earnings, when the positive outcome, going forward, then rises to closer 70%."
- The US leads the way in terms of govt auctions with a total of $64 Bln of 3, 10 & 30-yr and $90 Bln of 3- & 6-mth Bills, with UK offering 40-yr, German 30-yr and inflation Linked 8-yr, Austria 10 & 30 yr, while Italy holds its mid-month BTP auction (ca. EUR 7.0 Bln of 3 & 7-yr and long-dated), details of which will be confirmed on Monday.
- On the political front, the results of the Hungarian general election on Sunday will need to be digested, but the focus will inevitably be on the US/China trade skirmishes, as well as the Summit of the Americas in Peru (starting Friday), where the hoped for 'in principle' deal on the NAFTA re-negotiations will now not be announced.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
* Sunday, 08 April
China ----- Boao Forum for Asia - President Xi Jinping to
announce reforms on China’s economic opening
(ends 11 Apr)
Hungary ----- National elections
********************
From Marc Ostwald
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
focus on Trade tensions, sanctions, along with ECB annual report, IMF
World Economic Outlook update and US CBO annual budget and economic
outlook
- Directional of revisions key for IMF forecasts update, against
emergent concerns about global growth losing momentum
- Russia sanctions perhaps more sensitive than China tensions, and may
much have more profound impact than 2014 measures
- US CBO forecast update: major upward revision to deficit, but much
contingent on growth forecast revisions
- Week Ahead: US & China inflation data, China Trade, Japan Orders,
and UK Production, Trade, BRC Retail Sales and RICS in focus
- Week Ahead: FOMC minutes and Fed speak (Evans shift notable), plenty
of ECB speakers; raft of CEE and EM rate decisions seen unchanged
- Attachments: US Corp Earnings guidance, Corp Earnings & Revenues,
Forward EPS charts & Factset Earnings Scorecard
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While the data schedule has points of interest via way of the already published Japan's Current Account and Economy Watchers (services) survey along with German Trade (with the fall in exports & imports seemingly adding to the impression that recent weak data has in part been a function of weather and China LNY effects), ahead of this afternoon's Bank of Canada quarterly surveys of Senior Officers and on the Business Outlook, the events schedule might have rather more in the way of distractions from the intensifying China/US Trade skirmishes. These comprise China's equivalent to the Davos WEF, the Boao Forum on Asia which kicked off on Sunday, with President Xi offering the key note speech tomorrow, the ECB'a annual report and a smattering of ECB speak, while the IMF will update its World Economic Outlook (see: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018 for January 2018's projections). But perhaps most interesting will the US Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) annual US Budget and Economic Outlook, notable for the fact that CBO's forecasting track record has consistently been more reliable than other official institutions, and indeed private sector estimates. The main point of focus will be its estimates of the US budget deficit incoming year.
Thanks to the recent decision to ramp up spending over the next two years and the tax reforms, these will be way above the projections made last June. But for comparison purposes, these were the June 2017 estimates for 2018-2020:
a) US$, Bln 2018 2019 2020
Total Revenues 3,531 3,687 3,853
Total Outlays 4,094 4,375 4,628
Budget deficit -563 -689 -775
GDP 19,924 20,671 21,380
b) As precentages (of GDP where appliclable)
2018 2019 2020
Total Revenues 17.7 17.8 18.0
Total Outlays 20.5 21.2 21.6
Budget deficit -2.8 -3.3 -3.6
Real GDP 2.2 1.7 1.4
GDP Deflator 2.0 1.9 2.0
PCE / Core PCE * 1.9 2.0 2.0
* projections were the same for both series
# CBO website: https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/budget-economic-data#4
Elsewhere, on the 'trade wars/sanctions' front, there may ab a rther more profound impact in the commodity trading arena from the sanctions imposed by the US on Friday against Oleg Deripaska (Norilsk Nickel, Rusal) and other Russian oligarchs, as these go well beyond those imposed in 2014, in so far as they effectively target anyone facilitating any USD dollar transactions with the oligarchs and their companies. Eminently other currencies could be used, though in the current regulatory climate (above all following the fines imposed on European banks in recent years for similar 'circumvention'), many banks may well be very wary, and automakers and makers of beverage cans along with those doing business with Gazprom, whose CEO Miller, though not the company, has been sanctioned will be in intense consultations with thier legal advisers.
* RECAP: The Week Ahead Preview : 09 to 13 April 2018 *
- While the coming week's schedule is quite busy in data terms, via way of the gamut of US and Chinese inflation indicators; China, German, UK and Chinese Trade; Japanese Machinery Orders and a raft of Industrial Production readings in Europe and the UK, accompanied by a busy run of ECB and Fed speakers, the question is whether these will get any market traction / reaction, given the focus on 'trade war' fears. The week also sees the start of the Q1 earnings season, monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC along with a number of major energy conferences, with the US topping the govt bond auction schedule.
- Somewhat unusually, US inflation data are published this week, while US activity indicators are scheduled for the week after. As previously noted, the March through June period will see considerable upward pressure on US and European inflation metrics due to adverse base effects. Thus US CPI may be forecast to post a flat m/m reading at the headline level, but this would still see the y/y tick up to 2.3% from 2.2%, with core CPI seen up by the "usual" 0.2% m/m, which would bump the y/y rate to 2.1% from 1.8%. PPI and Export / Import Prices are also due, as are the NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings. China is projected to see CPI and PPI edge back down to 2.6% and 3.3% y/y (vs 2.9% and 3.7%), as Lunar New Year effects unwind, with its topical and sensitive Trade data are expected to see Exports and Imports revert to a more 'normal' trend after February's LNY distortions, with the consensus looking for Exports at 11.9% y/y (vs. Feb's 44.5%) and Imports at 12.4% y/y (vs. Feb's 6.3%). German Trade data are seen posting marginal gains for both Exports and Imports, after modest dips in January. The ever volatile Japanese Private Machinery Orders are projected to see a setback of 2.5% m/m, following January's 8.2% m/m surge, with Lunar New Year effects and mean reversion risks imparting some downside risks. A relatively busy week for the UK has Industrial Production (median +0.4% m/m), Trade (£-11.9 Bln) and Construction Output (0.7% m/m after sliding -3.4% in January), along with the NIESR GDP estimate (0.3%), BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices. The Bank of Canada's quarterly Business Outlook and Loan Officers' surveys, Indian CPI and Industrial Production and Australian Housing Finance are likely to be the other items of note.
- There will be a deluge of ECB and Eurozone national central bank speakers, the March FOMC minutes and a smattering of Fed and BoJ speakers, though it seems unlikely that any will offer any fresh insights / signals on policy outlooks. That said, the comments from one of the FOMC's staunchest doves, Chicago Fed's Evans, in support of further gradual rate hikes, is as notable a shift as that from Brainard earlier in the year. On the other hand, the first major speech by newly appointed China PBOC chief Yi Gang will attract plenty of attention, both in terms of the monetary policy outlook, and indeed potential measures to address the myriad of financial sector macro-prudential challenges. In the CEE and EM space, no change policy decisions are expected in Croatia, Mexico, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Ukraine, and rates are likely to remain on hold in Mozambique, Namibia, Peru and Serbia. While the IMF's forecasting record is far from blemish free, its latest global economic forecast update will inevitably attract attention, above all in terms of the overall direction of any forecast revisions, given emergent market concerns that global growth may be losing some traction.
- The US Q4 earnings season kicks off with the usual smattering of major financials - Blackrock, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase & Wells Fargo. Unusually, overall S&P 500 earnings expectations have been revised up going into the reporting season, and look for a sharp increase, despite the soggy tone in US equity indices. As my colleague Andy Ash has observed: "If we look at the times when the S&P is down 10% coming into an earnings season that is predicting 15%+ earnings growth, the outcome from those times has been only 50% positive. The S&P interestingly does a lot better when it is down and expecting bad earnings, when the positive outcome, going forward, then rises to closer 70%."
- The US leads the way in terms of govt auctions with a total of $64 Bln of 3, 10 & 30-yr and $90 Bln of 3- & 6-mth Bills, with UK offering 40-yr, German 30-yr and inflation Linked 8-yr, Austria 10 & 30 yr, while Italy holds its mid-month BTP auction (ca. EUR 7.0 Bln of 3 & 7-yr and long-dated), details of which will be confirmed on Monday.
- On the political front, the results of the Hungarian general election on Sunday will need to be digested, but the focus will inevitably be on the US/China trade skirmishes, as well as the Summit of the Americas in Peru (starting Friday), where the hoped for 'in principle' deal on the NAFTA re-negotiations will now not be announced.
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
* Sunday, 08 April
China ----- Boao Forum for Asia - President Xi Jinping to
announce reforms on China’s economic opening
(ends 11 Apr)
Hungary ----- National elections
********************
From Marc Ostwald
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
Dentalfloss
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Ml come back.... We miss yuHi Dentist / Inzi,
I got distracted with some work over the last couple of weeks but that's over for the moment so I'm back to play
I'm gradually widening my interest and have started to look at UC, UJ, €CHF and Stoxx - I find Dax is generally too exciting for my taste....
I've looked in occasionally to see Dentist giving the Dax and Dow a good seeing-to but Inzi, what are you interested in these days?...and what news of ML?
Dentalfloss
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- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
24150 lining up
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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ditto nas 100 @6506
Spx @2626
Spx @2626
Dentalfloss
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its gonna pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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tad b ullish as nas 100 was in trend supp on chart posted at the weekend
could be wrong...lol
could be wrong...lol
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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cable seems to be lining up 1.4120
