Dentalfloss
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pivotalpivots sayin CompQ in a pivot area
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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12k lookin like it might pump
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24100...ya hummer
luvin it
luvin it
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24K agai...and bounce
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dump from that pivot
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The Week Ahead Preview - 26 to 30 March 2018
- Trade and geo-political tensions will doubtless continue to be a key factor in the week ahead, along with month and quarter end related flows, as markets wind down ahead of the long Easter holiday weekend in much of the world. The statistical schedule is unsurprisingly quite light with the focus on an array of consumer and business surveys, US Personal Income / PCE and preliminary CPI readings in Spain, Germany, Portugal, France and Italy, with the usual month end rush of Activity data and Tokyo CPI in Japan, while the UK has its Index of Services, and Canada monthly GDP. There will be a reasonable volume of Fed and ECB speak, while the US dominates the govt bond issuance schedule.
- Given the political clouds overhead, markets are giving rather short shrift to incoming economic data, but they still bear some scrutiny. US Consumer Confidence is seen holding and edging up from February's 17-yr high of 130.8 to 131.0; unsurprising in so far as labour demand remains strong, gasoline prices broadly stable, though the equity market wobbles may have some impact, partly dependent on data collection timing effects. US PCE and Personal Income are projected to rise 0.2% and 0.4% m/m respectively, mirroring Earnings and Retail Sales; with the focus as always on the PCE deflators which are seen up 0.2% m/m at 1.7% y/y headline (unch) and 1.6% y/y core (vs. 1.5%), in effect endorsing the Fed's gradualism. As we have stressed for a number of months, CPI data for March through June2018 in much of the G7 will likely be hit hard by adverse base effects, and this is reflected in forecasts for the various national March CPI and HICP readings in the Eurozone next week. Spanish HICP (Tuesday) and German CPI (Thursday) are projected at 1.6% y/y vs. 1.2% in February, while France and Italy (both Friday) are seen at 1.5% vs. 1.3%, and 0.8% from 0.5% respectively. Pan Eurozone CPI data is due on 4 April is projected to show headline at 1.5% y/y from 1.2%, though core is forecast to show a more modest rise to 1.2% y/y from 1.1%. Japan's March Tokyo CPI is by contrast not expected to edge down in headline terms to 1.3%, and be unchanged at 0.9% and 0.5% in core terms, while Industrial Production is projected to bounce back 5.0% m/m for a modestly lower 2.3% y/y, with Retail Sales seen up marginally to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% y/y. As for the UK January Index of Services, the projected 0.2% m/m would see the key 3-mth/3-mth unchanged at 0.6% q/q - a reasonable pace, but hardly making a persuasive case for a May MPC rate hike.
- Central banks: it is unlikely that the array of Fed and ECB speakers will offer any 'surprising' signals on the future policy path, and they will almost certainly underline that inflation readings are lower than they would like, as well as emphasizing that escalating trade tensions pose a material risk to domestic and global economic outlooks. In EM rate decisions are due in Angola, Czech Republic, Egypt, Ghana, Hungary, South Africa and Thailand, with policy seen unchanged in all cases, while Brazil's BCB publishes its latest inflation report, which will likely downgrade its inflation outlook modestly, and thus affirm the easing bias inherent in the BCB's March policy statement.
- Corporate earnings are not plentiful, but include Constellation Brands, Hennes & Mauritz, Lululemon Athletica, Monsanto, Walgreens Boots Alliance among others. The US sells $94 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr Treasury Notes, $15 Bln of 2-yr FRS and $119 Bln of 3, 6 & 12-mth T-bills (total $238 Bln). Elsewhere Italy is the other major issuer via way of EUR 5.5 Bln of CTZs/BTPei and an as yet to be specified volume of medium and long-dated BTPs (ca 6.0-7.0 bln), while the UK sells £600 Mln of 2056 Index-Linked Gilts, which should soak up the usual quarter end demand from actuarily dictated asset-liability matching requirements.
- As previously noted: China also launches its INE Crude Oil futures on Monday 26th March (Blbg TK: SCPA <Cmdty>, Reuters Ticker ISCc1), which will be very closely watched, see https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-or-dazzle-for-foreign-traders-idUSKBN1GY0S1 and https://www.reuters.com/article/chi...i-oil-with-crude-futures-launch-idUSL3N1R32KY for some 'explainers' via Reuters.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
- Trade and geo-political tensions will doubtless continue to be a key factor in the week ahead, along with month and quarter end related flows, as markets wind down ahead of the long Easter holiday weekend in much of the world. The statistical schedule is unsurprisingly quite light with the focus on an array of consumer and business surveys, US Personal Income / PCE and preliminary CPI readings in Spain, Germany, Portugal, France and Italy, with the usual month end rush of Activity data and Tokyo CPI in Japan, while the UK has its Index of Services, and Canada monthly GDP. There will be a reasonable volume of Fed and ECB speak, while the US dominates the govt bond issuance schedule.
- Given the political clouds overhead, markets are giving rather short shrift to incoming economic data, but they still bear some scrutiny. US Consumer Confidence is seen holding and edging up from February's 17-yr high of 130.8 to 131.0; unsurprising in so far as labour demand remains strong, gasoline prices broadly stable, though the equity market wobbles may have some impact, partly dependent on data collection timing effects. US PCE and Personal Income are projected to rise 0.2% and 0.4% m/m respectively, mirroring Earnings and Retail Sales; with the focus as always on the PCE deflators which are seen up 0.2% m/m at 1.7% y/y headline (unch) and 1.6% y/y core (vs. 1.5%), in effect endorsing the Fed's gradualism. As we have stressed for a number of months, CPI data for March through June2018 in much of the G7 will likely be hit hard by adverse base effects, and this is reflected in forecasts for the various national March CPI and HICP readings in the Eurozone next week. Spanish HICP (Tuesday) and German CPI (Thursday) are projected at 1.6% y/y vs. 1.2% in February, while France and Italy (both Friday) are seen at 1.5% vs. 1.3%, and 0.8% from 0.5% respectively. Pan Eurozone CPI data is due on 4 April is projected to show headline at 1.5% y/y from 1.2%, though core is forecast to show a more modest rise to 1.2% y/y from 1.1%. Japan's March Tokyo CPI is by contrast not expected to edge down in headline terms to 1.3%, and be unchanged at 0.9% and 0.5% in core terms, while Industrial Production is projected to bounce back 5.0% m/m for a modestly lower 2.3% y/y, with Retail Sales seen up marginally to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% y/y. As for the UK January Index of Services, the projected 0.2% m/m would see the key 3-mth/3-mth unchanged at 0.6% q/q - a reasonable pace, but hardly making a persuasive case for a May MPC rate hike.
- Central banks: it is unlikely that the array of Fed and ECB speakers will offer any 'surprising' signals on the future policy path, and they will almost certainly underline that inflation readings are lower than they would like, as well as emphasizing that escalating trade tensions pose a material risk to domestic and global economic outlooks. In EM rate decisions are due in Angola, Czech Republic, Egypt, Ghana, Hungary, South Africa and Thailand, with policy seen unchanged in all cases, while Brazil's BCB publishes its latest inflation report, which will likely downgrade its inflation outlook modestly, and thus affirm the easing bias inherent in the BCB's March policy statement.
- Corporate earnings are not plentiful, but include Constellation Brands, Hennes & Mauritz, Lululemon Athletica, Monsanto, Walgreens Boots Alliance among others. The US sells $94 Bln of 2, 5 & 7-yr Treasury Notes, $15 Bln of 2-yr FRS and $119 Bln of 3, 6 & 12-mth T-bills (total $238 Bln). Elsewhere Italy is the other major issuer via way of EUR 5.5 Bln of CTZs/BTPei and an as yet to be specified volume of medium and long-dated BTPs (ca 6.0-7.0 bln), while the UK sells £600 Mln of 2056 Index-Linked Gilts, which should soak up the usual quarter end demand from actuarily dictated asset-liability matching requirements.
- As previously noted: China also launches its INE Crude Oil futures on Monday 26th March (Blbg TK: SCPA <Cmdty>, Reuters Ticker ISCc1), which will be very closely watched, see https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-or-dazzle-for-foreign-traders-idUSKBN1GY0S1 and https://www.reuters.com/article/chi...i-oil-with-crude-futures-launch-idUSL3N1R32KY for some 'explainers' via Reuters.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Strategist
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
it bounced late Friday and is testing our 23579 REZ area
it bounced late Friday and is testing our 23579 REZ area
Dentalfloss
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should consolidat a tad and get into 23600-23650 area...poss into 23700" s
23830 area is aqua line....should be bigger rez there
as you can see....its in an area of horizontal support....that means nothing..lol
its rez we are interested in...see how well our 24100 worked on Friday/area was marked just before the open
23830 area is aqua line....should be bigger rez there
as you can see....its in an area of horizontal support....that means nothing..lol
its rez we are interested in...see how well our 24100 worked on Friday/area was marked just before the open
Dentalfloss
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Dax rangebound
Dentalfloss
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life is so much easier when you can mark and quantify the trends
then....
look left for support and resistance
thats all you have to do
then....
look left for support and resistance
thats all you have to do
Dentalfloss
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FTSE
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its just fumbled around that pivot area...if you can get it if it goes deep into it...poss 6800 should be a decent one
6972 ....a real dog
6972 ....a real dog
Dentalfloss
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quite a wide supp area....goes down to 6600
Dont call support
turns a tad nasty if 6860 becomes rez if it dumps
Dont call support
turns a tad nasty if 6860 becomes rez if it dumps
Dentalfloss
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ftse 5min
ya just dont know if it will be supported....and by how much..??
bounce on 23/03 was a fake....got sold off at rez
ya just dont know if it will be supported....and by how much..??
bounce on 23/03 was a fake....got sold off at rez
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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whacked
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nas 100 testing prev supp area at 6600
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Dow into the open
