Trading with point and figure

flhafr.png


in rez
 
dentist007 said:
Facebook is in rez...on bounce from 160.00
166.50 to 174 first test
174 area a big number
FOMC is a done deal at some point.....facebook is not

COULD BE WRONG...lol
Click to expand...

FB yesterday
165.00 pump or dump called
174.00 big number area called

2gtq895.png
 
165 p/d using mr charts rising candles method
174 dump area using mr charts falling candles method
 
165 p/d was a classic p/f signal..semi catapult breakout
173.25 dump...we were looking for signal to sell as we were in our big number area..semi -catapult breakdown
no other methods used
 
- Digesting Fed and China rate moves, Fed projections, Oz Labour data,
looking ahead to Eurozone and US flash PMIs and national business
surveys, US Claims and FHFA House Prices; EU Leaders' meeting, Trump
announcement on China trade barriers, US 10-yr TIPS

- Fed: construed as a 'dovish hike', but updated forecasts and Powell
press conference suggest a nasty case of 'wilful blindness'

- PMIs: Eurozone readings seen losing more momentum, US seen up; national
surveys to provide a more reliable picture

- UK Retail Sales: modest gain expected, but 3-mth comparison seen in
negative territory (dragged down by Dec); downside risks due to
weather

- BoE: no change expected, but door for May hike expected to be left wide
open; incoming data less than persuasive

- Charts/Tables: US 10yr yield, US 5 & 10-yr Breakeven Inflation Rates,
Fed and BoE rate probabilities by meeting

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Today shifts the G7 central bank policy script from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of England, with expected no change policy meetings also due in Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines, with the ECB bulletin and a gaggle of ECB, Norges Bank, Riksbank and BoC speakers also sharing their views on their respective economies and policy outlooks. There are the modest China 7-day Repo Rate hike and solid Australian labour data to digest, ahead of UK Retail Sales and a raft of 'flash' PMIs and national business surveys in Europe, including Germany's Ifo Business Climate, along with US weekly jobless claims and tonight's Japan National CPI (expected to mirror the already published reading for Tokyo). The EU leaders' meeting is expected to rubber stamp the Brexit bill and transition agreements announced on Monday, though there have been a number of objections lodged, beyond the still extant and obvious Irish border concerns. The US will also re-open its current 10-yr TIPS benchmark. But all of this may amount to very little, in so far as markets will almost inevitably focus in on Trump's 17.30 GMT announcement on China Trade sanctions and tariffs.

** Post FOMC thoughts **
- While a fourth rate hike is not assumed in the latest 'dot plot', the FOMC still added a hike for 2019, and hiked its range of forecasts for 2020 to 3.1%-3.9% from 2.6%-3.1% in December, i.e. steepening the rate trajectory sharply in the medium-term. Its GDP forecasts were also hiked (2018 to 2.7% from 2.5%, 2019 2.4% from 2.1%), while also cutting its Unemployment Rate forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 3.8% and 3.6%, both from a prior 3.9%, while only shading its equilibrium rate forecast lower to 4.5% from 4.6%. WHile headline PCE deflator forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were unchanged at 1.9% and 2.0%, and the core PCE deflator were edged up to 2.1% from 2.0% for 2019 and 2020. To suggest that these forecasts and the new rate trajectory implied a dovish hike (an outright contradiction in terms, if ever there was one) is the stuff of fantasy, though perhaps less surprising given that all the evidence that portfolio managers continue to operate on the basis of FOMO and TINA due to the continued huge (and still rising) volumes of excess liquidity sloshing around world markets. Powell did emphasize that inflation remains low, and that he did not expect a marked acceleration, but he did emphasize some asset price valuations (specifically noting some equities and commercial real estate) looked overstretched. The key point is that the forward risk on the policy trajectory is clearly to the upside, as far as the FOMC majority is concerned, and markets would do well to heed that point.

** U.K. - February Retail Sales / MPC meeting **
- Retail Sales are expected to eke out a slightly stronger 0.4% m/m rise (vs. Jan 0.1% m/m), as sales stabilize at subdued levels after the choppy November (+1.0%) December (-1.4%) readings. If correct that would see the y/y rate somewhat lower at 1.4% (vs. Jan 1.6%), and would largely mirror the anecdotal evidence from the BRC, Visa and Barclaycard data. The adverse February weather imparts some downside risks, and it will be interesting to see whether the MPC puts more emphasis on that potential disruption, or assumes that consumer spending will continue to be sluggish in the face of the weak real earnings growth, and encumbered household finances. The MPC is seen holding base rate at 0.50%, though has been some speculation that one or other MPC member might vote for a rate hike, even if political uncertainties suggest that discretion might prove to be the part of valour. The key question is how strong a hint is offered on a May rate hike, to which the market attaches a current probability of 64.3%.

** G7/Eurozone - March 'flash' PMIs, Business surveys **
- Forecasts for today's PMIs are as ever largely agnostic, but conform to the current market narrative that Euro area growth is gradually losing momentum, but US may be accelerating fractionally. If forecasts prove to be correct, there will doubtless be the usual acerbic barbs directed at the Euro area, even though absolute levels remain robust, while the observation that the US Markit PMIs continue to lag the ISM readings will remain the more important point. The latter applies in equal measure to the Eurozone, where the more reliable national trend indicators from the French business (as expected) and German Ifo surveys require more attention than the PMIs (France Mfg PMI much weaker than expected 53.6 vs. f'cast 55.5, Services 56.8 vs. prior 57.4). The Ifo Business Climate is seen dipping to 114.6, whereby the salient point is that this would still be above the previous post reunification cyclical high of 114.3 in 2010 - if that is surmised to signal some weakness, then that conclusion can only be termed to show a complete deficit of thought and analysis, and an obsession with second derivative type analyses that underline a lack of any perspective. The US PMI readings are seen at 55.5 and 56.0 vs. prior 55.3 and 55.9.


from Marc Ostwald
 
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